For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:52 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Broncos187 of 201 plays carry both curves
(4:58) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-33-D.Leonard at DEN 28.
Swing +58.2 for ChargersExpected points +5.11 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:58LAC +58% win prob(4:58) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-33-D.Leonard at DEN 28.
Overtime · 5:44LAC +29% win prob(5:44) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to LAC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
4th · 0:01DEN +25% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right (27-D.Mathis).
Overtime · 7:19LAC +23% win prob(7:19) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
4th · 10:41DEN +19% win prob(10:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 56-B.Browning at LAC 24. 56-B.Browning to LAC 24 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). FUMBLES (5-J.Palmer), touched at LAC 29, and recovers at LAC 30.
Overtime · 8:39DEN +18% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 1-K.Hamler.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 39-yard field goal with 2:43 left in overtime put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:25Brandon McManus·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
1st1:57Greg Dulcich·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+710–0
2nd0:57Dustin Hopkins·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+310–10
2nd0:05Brandon McManus·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap M.Fraboni+313–10
3rd9:12Dustin Hopkins·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+313–13
4th8:26Brandon McManus·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap M.Fraboni+316–13
4th4:02Dustin Hopkins·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+316–16
Overtime2:43Dustin Hopkins·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Broncos3–6Chargers
258Total yards297
4.7Yards per play3.6
35%Success rate36%
29%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
11First downs17
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Broncos: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.16Chargers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Broncos: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.26Chargers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Broncos: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chargers’s 83 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Chargers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 36.8% in week 5 against 18.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.5 pts in week 5 against −3.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Chargers17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 26.1 points below their season mean of 26.1% and 1.3 times their own 20.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%58 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%58 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%58 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Every snap100%58 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Full-time95%55 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time91%53 snaps
57Billy TurnerT · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
80Greg DulcichTE · Heavy rotation71%41 snaps
1K.J. HamlerWR · Heavy rotation57%33 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational47%27 snaps
26Mike BooneRB · Rotational36%21 snaps
76Calvin AndersonT · Rotational33%19 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
87Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational28%16 snaps
9Kendall HintonWR · Situational21%12 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Situational16%9 snaps
12Montrell WashingtonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Darius PhillipsCBEyioma UwazurikeDECaden SternsFSJosey JewellILBDelarrin Turner-YellSSAlbert OkwuegbunamTEJalen VirgilWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Scott punts+58% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:58) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-33-D.Leonard at DEN 28.
OT 4:58 · Chargers · 4th & 9 at LAC 20 · gained nothing · +5.11 EP · +58.2% win probability
185 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 84 yards from the DEN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
555
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.1578%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1963%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0242%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3450%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3467%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 33
Broncos3Chargers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Chargers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.5 seconds
Broncos9Chargers0
Broncos10Chargers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Chargers 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 29
2nd quarter49 plays
Broncos10Chargers6
Broncos10Chargers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 6
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 34
Broncos10Chargers10
Field goal20 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Broncos 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Broncos13Chargers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 9
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Broncos13Chargers13
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Broncos 12
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended12 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Broncos 35
4th quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Chargers 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Broncos16Chargers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 26
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Broncos16Chargers16
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 15
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Overtime26 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 34
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Broncos16Chargers19
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3.5
Closing total
45.5
Broncos moneyline
+166
Chargers moneyline
-186
Chargers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 35 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Broncos 11 days · Chargers 8 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Brandon Staley
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Overtime · 3:23
LAC +15% win prob
(3:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 21 for 9 yards (31-J.Simmons).
4th · 6:42LAC +15% win prob(6:42) 20-S.Michel left end to DEN 42 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton). LAC-76-W.Clapp was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 42.
