2022 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
Denver Broncos
16
Los Angeles ChargersWinner
19
Los Angeles Chargers 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:58, LAC +58% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:58) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-33-D.Leonard at DEN 28.
Highest-leverage plays
- OT · 4:58LAC +58% win prob(4:58) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-33-D.Leonard at DEN 28.
- OT · 5:44LAC +29% win prob(5:44) 17-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to LAC 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
- Q4 · 0:01DEN +25% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right (27-D.Mathis).
- OT · 7:19LAC +23% win prob(7:19) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:25DEN Field goal
(7:25) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — LAC 0 - Q1 · 1:57DEN Touchdown
(1:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 80-G.Dulcich for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — LAC 0 - Q2 · 9:16LAC Touchdown
(9:16) (No Huddle) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — LAC 7 - Q2 · 0:57LAC Field goal
(:57) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: DEN 10 — LAC 10 - Q2 · 0:05DEN Field goal
(:05) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — LAC 10 - Q3 · 9:12LAC Field goal
(9:12) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: DEN 13 — LAC 13 - Q4 · 8:26DEN Field goal
(8:26) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: DEN 16 — LAC 13 - Q4 · 4:02LAC Field goal
(4:02) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: DEN 16 — LAC 16 - OT · 2:43LAC Field goal
(2:43) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: DEN 16 — LAC 19
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 55 | 83 |
| Total yards | 258 | 297 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 (edge) | 3.6 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Success rate | 35% | 36% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 62% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.08 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/14 | 11/22 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 17 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · LAC
37/57, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.7 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
15/28, 188 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 11 | 2:29 | Punt | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 21 | 8 | 40 | 5:11 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 29 | 5 | 15 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 16 | 8 | 84 | 3:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 18 | 17 | 82 | 7:40 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 29 | 5 | 5 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 12 | 14 | 32 | 6:36 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 57 | 0:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 10 | LAC | LAC 28 | 9 | 55 | 4:19 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 25 | 10 | 11 | 3:55 | Punt | |
| 12 | LAC | LAC 30 | 11 | 37 | 5:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 29 | 9 | 32 | 4:14 | Punt | |
| 14 | LAC | LAC 17 | 1 | 0 | 0:13 | Interception | |
| 15 | DEN | LAC 30 | 4 | 0 | 2:07 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | LAC | LAC 25 | 11 | 28 | 4:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 25 | 6 | 9 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 18 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 19 | 1:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 20 | LAC | LAC 19 | 4 | 5 | 1:12 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 31 | 4 | 3 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 22 | LAC | LAC 19 | 4 | 6 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 23 | LAC | DEN 28 | 4 | 7 | 2:08 | Field goal +3 |
9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 84 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Denver Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/28 | 188 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 28% | 3.4 |
| K.J. Hamler | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 12% | -0.8 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 0.7 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.5 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16% | -4.4 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | -1.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 14 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas Griffith | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damarri Mathis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Justin Simmons | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 37/57 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 1 | 0.8 |
| Sony Michel | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 9 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 22% | -0.7 |
| Donald Parham | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 5% | 3.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 16 | 47 | 0 | 29% | -3.6 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 13% | -2.8 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 9% | -4.2 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 11% | -2.6 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 5% | -1.3 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 1.2 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 4 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Rumph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrek Tuszka | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- LAC -3.5
- Closing total
- 45.5
- DEN moneyline
- +166
- LAC moneyline
- -186
Chargers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 35 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · matrixturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Ron Torbert
- Rest
- DEN 11 days · LAC 8 days
- Coaches
- Nathaniel Hackett vs Brandon Staley
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.