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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jaguars172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +38.2 for ColtsExpected points +4.58 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:23IND +38% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:49IND +19% win prob(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 29 for 15 yards (5-A.Cisco; 31-D.Williams).
3rd · 1:14JAX +14% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right end pushed ob at IND 34 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).
3rd · 7:27IND +11% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 24 for 18 yards (32-T.Campbell). JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play.
2nd · 11:36IND +11% win prob(11:36) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 22-J.Hasty right tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:47IND +11% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at JAX 29 for 15 yards (33-D.Lloyd).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alec Pierce's 32-yard touchdown catch with 0:23 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th12:52Jelani Woods·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+721–26
4th2:48Christian Kirk·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point no good+627–26
4th0:23Alec Pierce·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point goodLead never changed again+827–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars3–5Colts
380Total yards436
6.4Yards per play5.7
56%Success rate47%
50%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays5
22First downs28
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Jaguars: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Jaguars: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.28Colts: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.34Jaguars: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.06Colts: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 59 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Colts’s 76 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Colts 5.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's pass rate over expected, −9.3 pts, is past their previous low of −5.1 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Colts14.3%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteJAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 44.4%, 23.9 points above their season mean of 20.6% and 2.5 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:23 · Colts · 3rd & 13 at JAX 32 · gained 32 · +4.58 EP · +36.1% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 84 yards from the JAX 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
46%
Yards
815
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67+0.2381%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2168%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2530%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1463%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Jaguars 48
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Colts 26
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 19
Jaguars6Colts0
Jaguars7Colts0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Colts 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Jaguars 22
2nd quarter54 plays
Jaguars7Colts3
Field goal5 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 10
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jaguars13Colts3
Jaguars14Colts3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 39
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 20
Jaguars14Colts9
Jaguars14Colts10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Jaguars 4
The period ended7 plays
Jaguars14Colts13
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Jaguars 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Jaguars20Colts13
Jaguars21Colts13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 2
Jaguars21Colts19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Colts 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 37
4th quarter51 plays
Jaguars21Colts25
Jaguars21Colts26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 10
Jaguars27Colts26
Touchdown21 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Colts 4
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jaguars27Colts32
Jaguars27Colts34
Touchdown17 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Jaguars 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
