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2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

27

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

34

IND -1 ✓O 41 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 34–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, IND +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:23JAX 27 — IND 32IND ball · 3rd & 13IND 57%

(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:23IND +38% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:49IND +19% win prob(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 29 for 15 yards (5-A.Cisco; 31-D.Williams).
  3. Q3 · 1:14JAX +14% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right end pushed ob at IND 34 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).
  4. Q3 · 7:27IND +11% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to JAX 24 for 18 yards (32-T.Campbell). JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:51JAX Touchdown

    (3:51) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 0
  2. Q2 · 14:00IND Field goal

    (14:00) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — IND 3
  3. Q2 · 11:36JAX Touchdown

    (11:36) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 22-J.Hasty right tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 3
  4. Q2 · 2:11IND Touchdown

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 10
  5. Q2 · 0:25IND Field goal

    (:25) 7-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — IND 13
  6. Q3 · 10:58JAX Touchdown

    (10:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — IND 13
  7. Q3 · 5:47IND Touchdown

    (5:47) (No Huddle) 35-D.Jackson left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — IND 19
  8. Q4 · 12:52IND Touchdown

    (12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-J.Woods for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 21 — IND 26
  9. Q4 · 2:48JAX Touchdown

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — IND 26
  10. Q4 · 0:23IND Touchdown

    (:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 27 — IND 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsColts
Offensive plays5976
Total yards380436 (edge)
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.200.21 (edge)
Success rate56% (edge)47%
Dropback rate47%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.040.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.34 (edge)-0.06
Third downs5/1010/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2228 (edge)
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

42/58, 389 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.7 expected points added · +3.6% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/22, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

10 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

12 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

13/16 for 134 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Deon JacksonRB

10/10 for 79 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 149482:49Punt
2JAXJAX 157453:07Punt
3INDIND 10491:46Punt
4JAXJAX 447563:30Touchdown +7
5INDIND 2314674:52Field goal +3
6JAXJAX 256702:29Touchdown +7
7INDIND 258412:44Punt
8JAXJAX 12402:09Punt
9INDIND 469554:28Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 235-40:35Punt
11INDIND 399371:10Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 25200:21End of half
13JAXJAX 259754:05Touchdown +7
14INDIND 2512605:11Touchdown +6
15JAXJAX 1910474:35Turnover on downs
16INDIND 3410513:22Touchdown +7
17JAXJAX 16207210:03Touchdown +6
18INDIND 3413682:27Touchdown +8
19JAXJAX 253190:17Fumble

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence20/221651040.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne10868.60-0.9
Jamycal Hasty35719.013.8
James Robinson12544.500.6
Trevor Lawrence6233.826.0
Jamal Agnew11919.001.8
Christian Kirk144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Jones5542023%5.9
Evan Engram5640027%-0.1
Christian Kirk4524123%-0.4
Travis Etienne222209%0.7
Tim Jones112005%2.1
Luke Farrell111105%0.9
Jamal Agnew11505%-0.1
James Robinson11105%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun460.000
Shaquill Griffin720.002
Andre Cisco530.000
Tyson Campbell700.003
Rayshawn Jenkins610.001
Davon Hamilton240.000
Devin Lloyd420.000
Travon Walker130.000
Ty Summers110.000
Darious Williams110.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matt Ryan42/5838930016.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Deon Jackson12423.51-0.4
Phillip Lindsay372.300.2
Matt Ryan1-4-4.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman1316134029%7.4
Deon Jackson101079018%1.8
Parris Campbell71157120%4.3
Alec Pierce3749113%3.4
Kylen Granson443807%3.8
Jelani Woods232715%2.6
Phillip Lindsay33505%-1.5
Mike Strachan02004%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Okereke750.000
Zaire Franklin450.000
Rodney Thomas430.000
E.J. Speed240.000
Rodney McLeod410.000
Grover Stewart411.000
Tyquan Lewis311.000
DeForest Buckner121.000
Kenny Moore110.000
Ifeadi Odenigbo111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1
Closing total
41
JAX moneyline
+110
IND moneyline
-122

Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 41; the game landed 61 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
JAX 7 days · IND 10 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.