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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
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2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q2 3:10, 3rd and 6, on Justin Jefferson — 12.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:10 · 3rd and 6
Justin Jefferson
Vikings
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at MIA 2 for 24 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at MIA 2.
Minnesota Vikings 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 3:10, Vikings +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at MIA 2 for 24 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at MIA 2.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Irv Smith's 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:37 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Adam Thielen2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, wide right+616–3
Mike Gesicki3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Teddy Bridgewater · two-point no good+624–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 49 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 74 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Dolphins 2.
Dolphins outgained Vikings 458-241 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 50.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 23.2%, is past their previous high of 13.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 55.1% in week 5 against 73.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −1.2 pts in week 5 against +10.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.4 pts in week 5 against +8.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings10.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.2 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 48 snaps
Dolphins8.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 85%
Tendencies room →Vikings63.9%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 36 early downs
Dolphins73.2%leaned — passed early · +15.6 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 67%
Tendencies room →Vikings41.2%leaned — faked the run · +12.8 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins23.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings0.0%leaned — took the kick · −36.9 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins66.7%leaned — went for it · +34.8 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 69%
Tendencies room →Vikings14.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Dolphins50.0%leaned — sent pressure · +18.3 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Vikings23.2%off script — got home · +11.4 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Dolphins17.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.2%, 11.4 points above their season mean of 11.8% and 2.0 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
23/34, 329 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.9 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
20/30, 175 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-4.5 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
6/10 for 129 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · -2.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mike Gesicki banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.7 | +6.0 | 77% | 77% | 33% | 44% | 12/15, 177 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 24.9 | +8.9 | 64% | 73% | 16% | 19% | 6/7, 69 yd, 2 TD |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 18.2 | +2.9 | 69% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 329 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 10 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 16.9 | −0.2 | 79% | 86% | 22% | 27% | 6/10, 129 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.7 | +4.2 | 94% | 100% | 29% | 25% | 6/8, 107 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | 0.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 175 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -5 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.6 | −2.3 | 87% | 94% | 29% | 53% | 4/8, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.3 | +6.6 | 87% | 82% | 4% | 1% | 13 car, 77 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +1.8 | 63% | 79% | 14% | 0% | 4/4, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.8 | −3.7 | 62% | 50% | 4% | 1% | 14 car, 49 yd · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 5.1 | +1.1 | 40% | 48% | 4% | 2% | 2 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.1 | 60% | 62% | 18% | 14% | 3/5, 18 yd |
| Skylar ThompsonQB | 4.5 | −0.9 | 31% | — | 0% | — | 7/13, 89 yd · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 3.2 | −0.1 | 33% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.9 | 56% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 1 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −3.3 | 67% | 68% | 9% | 6% | 1/4, 6 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | 35% | 18% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Hunter LongTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| River CracraftWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 22% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 38 for 14 yards (33-B.Asamoah).
Q4 6:08 · Dolphins · 4th & 5 at MIA 48 · gained 14 · +3.36 EP · +14.5% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 83 yards from the MIA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings0
Dolphins3Vikings6Dolphins3Vikings7Dolphins3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Vikings10Dolphins3Vikings16Dolphins3Vikings16Dolphins9Vikings16Dolphins10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings22Dolphins10Vikings24Dolphins10Vikings24Dolphins16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/30 | 175 | 2 | 0 | 3 | −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 | −1.4 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 29% | +4.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 29% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cameron Dantzler |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/34 | 329 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +2.9 |
| Skylar Thompson | 7/13 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.4 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_MIN_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 18% | −1.6 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 14% | −2.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Danielle Hunter | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Patrick Jones | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Clayton Fejedelem | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 15 | 177 | 0 | 33% | +13.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 10 | 129 | 0 | 22% | −2.9 |
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 7 | 69 | 2 | 16% | +7.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Alec Ingold | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −6.0 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Rowe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
