2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Miami Dolphins

MIN -3 ✓U 45 ✓Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.

Minnesota Vikings 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 3:10, MIA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:10MIN 0 — MIA 3MIN ball · 3rd & 6MIN 56%

(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at MIA 2 for 24 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at MIA 2.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:10MIA +12% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson pushed ob at MIA 2 for 24 yards (8-J.Holland). PENALTY on MIA-94-C.Wilkins, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced at MIA 2.
Q4 · 6:08MIA +12% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 10-T.Hill to MIN 38 for 14 yards (33-B.Asamoah).
Q2 · 2:17MIA +10% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at MIN 34 for 19 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
Q4 · 4:22MIN +10% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to MIN 28 for 14 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith), RECOVERED by MIN-24-C.Bynum at MIN 26. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 41 for 15 yards (71-B.Shell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 6:10MIA Field goal
(6:10) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: MIN 0 — MIA 3
Q2 · 2:37MIN Touchdown
(2:37) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — MIA 3
Q2 · 0:02MIN Field goal
(:02) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — MIA 3
Q4 · 14:21MIN Touchdown
(14:21) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 16 — MIA 3
Q4 · 10:08MIA Touchdown
(10:08) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 16 — MIA 10
Q4 · 3:25MIN Touchdown
(3:25) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: MIN 24 — MIA 10
Q4 · 1:31MIA Touchdown
(1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 24 — MIA 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Dolphins
Offensive plays	49	74
Total yards	241	458 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	37%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.44
Third downs	2/12	4/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Dolphins outgained Vikings 458–241 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Teddy BridgewaterQB

23/34, 329 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.9 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/30, 175 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

13 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

14 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

12/15 for 177 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 13.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

6/10 for 129 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	5	8	1:30	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 25	11	33	5:31	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 6	4	1	1:39	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 18	9	80	5:57	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 20	4	3	0:36	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 28	4	2	0:59	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 16	4	3	2:10	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 38	9	36	5:33	Field goal +3
9	MIN	MIN 25	9	74	3:33	Touchdown +7
10	MIA	MIA 47	8	19	0:52	Missed field goal
11	MIN	MIN 42	4	6	1:12	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 11	2	14	0:10	Interception
13	MIN	MIA 41	3	5	0:18	Field goal +3
14	MIA	MIA 25	5	9	1:37	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIA 33	4	-7	1:48	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 10	4	-1	2:11	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 41	4	5	1:40	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 12	4	0	0:24	Punt
19	MIN	MIA 49	4	-7	1:34	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 14	5	27	2:24	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 27	8	73	4:09	Touchdown +6
22	MIA	MIA 25	9	75	4:09	Touchdown +7
23	MIN	MIN 25	5	9	1:39	Punt
24	MIA	MIA 20	7	62	4:15	Fumble
25	MIN	MIN 41	3	61	0:55	Touchdown +8
26	MIA	MIA 25	3	14	0:14	Interception
27	MIN	MIA 48	4	7	0:24	Punt
28	MIA	MIA 17	7	88	1:13	Touchdown +6
29	MIN	MIA 45	3	0	1:24	End of game

7 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/30	175	2	0	3	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	13	77	5.9	1	-1.4
C.J. Ham	1	3	3.0	0	0.9
Alexander Mattison	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4
Kirk Cousins	2	-5	-2.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	6	8	107	0	29%	4.4
Adam Thielen	4	8	36	1	29%	1.0
K.J. Osborn	3	5	18	0	18%	-1.6
Irv Smith	4	4	7	1	14%	-2.1
Dalvin Cook	1	1	6	0	4%	0.5
Johnny Mundt	2	2	1	0	7%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	6	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	6	3	1.0	0	1
Harrison Smith	5	1	0.0	1	2
Cameron Dantzler	3	2	0.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	2	2	0.0	0	1
Patrick Peterson	3	1	0.0	1	3
Danielle Hunter	3	1	1.0	0	0
Za'Darius Smith	3	1	2.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	3	0	0.0	0	2
Patrick Jones	2	1	2.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	23/34	329	2	2	5	2.9
Skylar Thompson	7/13	89	0	0	1	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Raheem Mostert	14	49	3.5	-3.6
Teddy Bridgewater	1	10	10.0	1.3
Skylar Thompson	1	9	9.0	1.9
Chase Edmonds	2	3	1.5	-0.9
Alec Ingold	1	2	2.0	0.5
Clayton Fejedelem	1	0	0.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	12	15	177	0	33%	13.1
Jaylen Waddle	6	10	129	0	22%	-2.9
Mike Gesicki	6	7	69	2	16%	7.4
Chase Edmonds	2	2	28	0	4%	1.1
Alec Ingold	2	2	10	0	4%	0.1
Trent Sherfield	1	4	6	0	9%	-6.0
Tanner Conner	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.5
River Cracraft	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Raheem Mostert	1	2	-1	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Elandon Roberts	2	4	1.5	0
Brandon Jones	3	3	0.0	1
Christian Wilkins	3	1	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	4	0	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	1	2	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	2	0	0.0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	1	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	1	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 45
MIN moneyline: -175
MIA moneyline: +157

Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: MIN 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Mike McDaniel