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New England Patriots 38 at Cleveland Browns 15. Final.
Browns -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 6
New England Patriots 38, Browns 15 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 14:21, 2nd and 9, on Jonnu Smith — 13.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:21 · 2nd and 9
Jonnu Smith
Patriots
(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).
O 43 ✓
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 38–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:21, Patriots +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle DuggerPatriotsQ1 14:28(14:28) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 84-P.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE 36. 23-K.Dugger to NE 36 for no gain (84-P.Brown).
13.3pts
Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsQ2 3:30(3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 15 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).
Swing −13.9 for BrownsExpected points −4.39 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:21CLE +14% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).
1st · 14:28NE +13% win prob(14:28) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 84-P.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE 36. 23-K.Dugger to NE 36 for no gain (84-P.Brown).
2nd · 3:30CLE +13% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:22CLE +12% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku ran ob at NE 27 for 33 yards.
1st · 0:54NE +10% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at NE 24 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by CLE-43-J.Johnson at NE 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 14:00NE +10% win prob(14:00) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett right guard to NE 18 for no gain (9-M.Judon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rhamondre Stevenson's 31-yard rushing touchdown with 3:30 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:34Nick Folk·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–0
1st3:04Cade York·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+33–3
2nd3:30Rhamondre Stevenson·31-yd TD run31-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–3
2nd0:30Cade York·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+310–6
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.28Browns: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Patriots: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Patriots: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.42Browns: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Browns’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 7, Browns 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's early-down pass rate, 66.0%, is past their previous high of 51.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Browns8.3%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 26.3 points above their season mean of 23.7% and 2.2 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Bailey ZappeQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%70 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time97%68 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Full-time86%60 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
61Marcus CannonT · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
76Isaiah WynnT · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
11Tyquan ThorntonWR · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational43%30 snaps
36Kevin HarrisRB · Situational17%12 snaps
35Pierre StrongRB · Situational6%4 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Situational6%4 snaps
18Matt SlaterWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jonathan JonesCBLawrence GuyDTJoshuah BledsoeFSJosh UcheOLBMac JonesQBDamien HarrisRBNelson AgholorWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Zappe pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).
Q3 14:21 · Patriots · 2nd & 9 at NE 26 · gained 53 · +4.39 EP · +14.9% win probability
177 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 87 yards from the NE 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
35%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0681%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0882%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4450%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.6450%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.9867%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.7411%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Patriots3Browns0
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Browns 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Patriots3Browns3
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Patriots 21
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 36
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 27
2nd quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 18
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 44
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Patriots 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Patriots9Browns3
Patriots10Browns3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Browns 31
Patriots10Browns6
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Patriots 29
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Patriots16Browns6
Patriots17Browns6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Browns 2
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 37
Punt5 plays
Intercepted1 play
Patriots23Browns6
Patriots24Browns6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 31
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Browns 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Patriots 23
4th quarter55 plays
Patriots24Browns9
Field goal2 plays
No good14 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Browns 11
Patriots24Browns15
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Patriots 15
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Browns 44
Patriots30Browns15
Patriots31Browns15
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Browns 24
Patriots37Browns15
Patriots38Browns15
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Patriots 37
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -2.5
Closing total
43
Patriots moneyline
+127
Browns moneyline
-140
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 53 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Kevin Stefanski
1st · 11:21
CLE +10% win prob
(11:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 1-D.Parker to CLE 14 for 29 yards (23-M.Emerson).
3rd · 7:13NE +9% win prob(7:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Mills [8-J.Bentley] at NE 45. 2-J.Mills to CLE 40 for 15 yards (2-A.Cooper).
