2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Cleveland Browns

CLE -2.5 upsetO 43 ✓Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 38–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:21, CLE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:21NE 10 — CLE 6NE ball · 2nd & 9NE 60%

(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:21CLE +14% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 81-J.Smith to CLE 21 for 53 yards (23-M.Emerson).
Q1 · 14:28NE +13% win prob(14:28) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right intended for 84-P.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at NE 36. 23-K.Dugger to NE 36 for no gain (84-P.Brown).
Q2 · 3:30CLE +13% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:22CLE +12% win prob(5:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku ran ob at NE 27 for 33 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:34NE Field goal
(7:34) 6-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 3 — CLE 0
Q1 · 3:04CLE Field goal
(3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: NE 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 3:30NE Touchdown
(3:30) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — CLE 3
Q2 · 0:30CLE Field goal
(:30) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: NE 10 — CLE 6
Q3 · 11:25NE Touchdown
(11:25) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 11-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — CLE 6
Q3 · 5:39NE Touchdown
(5:39) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 24 — CLE 6
Q4 · 14:39CLE Field goal
(14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: NE 24 — CLE 9
Q4 · 6:22CLE Touchdown
(6:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 24 — CLE 15
Q4 · 4:32NE Touchdown
(4:32) 61-M.Cannon reported in as eligible. 11-T.Thornton left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 31 — CLE 15
Q4 · 3:45NE Touchdown
(3:45) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 38 — CLE 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Browns
Offensive plays	62	68
Total yards	403 (edge)	328
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	39% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	58%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.42
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	4/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

24/34, 309 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

21/45, 266 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

19 att, 76 yds, 2 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

12 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

4/5 for 74 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

4/6 for 64 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	3	6	0:39	Interception
2	NE	NE 36	12	63	6:50	Field goal +3
3	CLE	CLE 25	10	54	4:31	Field goal +3
4	NE	NE 22	4	25	2:13	Fumble
5	CLE	NE 38	5	20	1:51	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 18	6	6	2:21	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 13	8	33	3:47	Punt
8	NE	NE 13	10	92	4:25	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 29	10	21	2:57	Field goal +3
10	NE	NE 25	2	5	0:26	End of half
11	NE	NE 25	9	75	3:38	Touchdown +7
12	CLE	CLE 25	8	12	2:14	Punt
13	NE	NE 39	4	8	1:55	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 28	1	0	0:11	Interception
15	NE	CLE 40	4	40	1:30	Touchdown +7
16	CLE	CLE 26	5	-2	1:00	Punt
17	NE	NE 43	4	7	2:18	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 19	9	58	2:39	Field goal +3
19	NE	NE 23	12	66	5:34	Missed field goal
20	CLE	CLE 35	9	75	2:44	Touchdown +6
21	NE	CLE 47	5	-11	1:45	Punt
22	NE	CLE 19	2	19	0:04	Touchdown +7
23	CLE	CLE 17	3	5	0:32	Fumble
24	NE	CLE 8	4	8	0:16	Touchdown +7
25	CLE	CLE 17	10	46	1:50	Turnover on downs
26	NE	NE 37	3	0	1:50	End of game

10 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	24/34	309	2	0	2	8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	19	76	4.0	2	2.0
Tyquan Thornton	3	16	5.3	1	0.7
Pierre Strong	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Kevin Harris	3	5	1.7	0	-1.0
Bailey Zappe	3	-4	-1.3	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	6	64	0	19%	4.9
Jonnu Smith	2	2	61	0	6%	5.1
Hunter Henry	4	7	61	1	23%	0.7
Jakobi Meyers	4	4	60	0	13%	3.1
Tyquan Thornton	4	5	37	1	16%	3.7
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	17	0	3%	2.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	5	15	0	16%	-1.2
Bailey Zappe	1	1	-6	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	3	2	0.0	1	2
Raekwon McMillan	4	0	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	1	3	0.5	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jalen Mills	3	1	0.0	1	1
Myles Bryant	1	2	0.0	0	1
Deatrich Wise	3	0	1.0	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	1	1	0.5	0	0
Christian Barmore	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	2	0	0.0	0	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	21/45	266	1	2	4	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	12	56	4.7	-1.4
Kareem Hunt	4	12	3.0	-2.0
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Jacoby Brissett	1	0	0.0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	4	5	74	0	12%	7.8
David Njoku	3	6	58	0	14%	0.4
Amari Cooper	4	12	44	1	29%	1.3
Pharaoh Brown	2	3	21	0	7%	-2.0
Harrison Bryant	3	4	18	0	10%	-1.5
Mike Woods	1	2	15	0	5%	0.5
Nick Chubb	1	2	14	0	5%	0.1
David Bell	1	2	13	0	5%	-0.4
D'Ernest Johnson	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.0
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Anthony Schwartz	0	3	0	0	7%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jacob Phillips	4	6	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	5	2	0.0	1
John Johnson	3	4	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	1	5	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	6	0	0.0	2
Sione Takitaki	4	1	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	2	3	2.0	0
Greg Newsome	2	1	0.0	0
Isaac Rochell	3	0	0.0	0
Jordan Elliott	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 43
NE moneyline: +127
CLE moneyline: -140

Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 53 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NE 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Kevin Stefanski