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2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Lambeau Field

New York JetsWinner

27

Green Bay Packers

10

GB -7.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓

New York Jets 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:52, NYJ +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑NYJ ↓
Q3 · 5:52NYJ 16 — GB 3GB ball · 4th & 20NYJ 67%

(5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 5:52NYJ +15% win prob(5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:36NYJ +13% win prob(:36) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
  3. Q2 · 8:46NYJ +12% win prob(8:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by NYJ-29-L.Joyner at GB 34.
  4. Q3 · 8:19GB +12% win prob(8:19) 10-B.Berrios left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 5:50NYJ Field goal

    (5:50) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — GB 0
  2. Q2 · 0:03GB Field goal

    (:03) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — GB 3
  3. Q3 · 8:19NYJ Touchdown

    (8:19) 10-B.Berrios left end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — GB 3
  4. Q3 · 5:52NYJ Touchdown

    (5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 17 — GB 3
  5. Q3 · 2:40GB Touchdown

    (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-97-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 17 — GB 10
  6. Q4 · 15:00NYJ Touchdown

    (15:00) 20-Br.Hall up the middle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 24 — GB 10
  7. Q4 · 2:37NYJ Field goal

    (2:37) 6-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: NYJ 27 — GB 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsPackers
Offensive plays5069
Total yards281 (edge)278
Yards per play5.6 (edge)4.0
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.34
Success rate40%43% (edge)
Dropback rate42%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23 (edge)-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.36
Third downs1/104/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps13 (edge)12
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

26/41, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-13.3 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

10/18, 110 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.8 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

20 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

10 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Robert TonyanTE

10/12 for 90 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

4/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 25510:57Punt
2NYJNYJ 23491:35Punt
3GBGB 214-32:16Punt
4NYJNYJ 246192:24Punt
5GBGB 216143:08Punt
6NYJNYJ 154-32:18Punt
7GBGB 277442:28Missed field goal
8NYJNYJ 37482:13Punt
9GBNYJ 36521:42Punt
10NYJNYJ 8480:59Punt
11GBGB 24391:16Fumble
12NYJGB 346202:58Field goal +3
13GBGB 258293:27Turnover on downs
14NYJNYJ 465191:48Missed field goal
15GBGB 436460:31Field goal +3
16NYJNYJ 25511:05Punt
17GBGB 287113:34Punt
18NYJNYJ 265742:10Touchdown +7
19GBGB 30792:28Defensive touchdown
20GBGB 258553:08Touchdown +7
21NYJNYJ 347662:43Touchdown +7
22GBGB 2513535:40Turnover on downs
23NYJNYJ 3713606:38Field goal +3
24GBGB 25580:37Turnover on downs
25NYJGB 32301:57End of game

6 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 74 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Zach Wilson10/18110002-3.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall201165.813.4
Michael Carter6416.801.3
Braxton Berrios12020.012.5
Zach Wilson510.20-4.5
Tyler Conklin111.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Corey Davis2452024%2.8
C.J. Uzomah2217012%1.2
Tyler Conklin1216012%0.7
Garrett Wilson158029%-5.1
Michael Carter11606%0.7
Braxton Berrios11606%0.3
Breece Hall225012%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quincy Williams660.000
C.J. Mosley640.001
Jordan Whitehead420.000
Lamarcus Joyner310.000
Quinnen Williams312.000
Michael Carter300.000
Ahmad Gardner300.003
Vinny Curry210.000
Justin Hardee200.000
John Franklin-Myers111.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers26/41246104-13.3
Jordan Love2/48000-3.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon10414.10-2.0
Aaron Jones9192.10-0.4
Aaron Rodgers100.00-4.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Robert Tonyan101290027%-0.1
Allen Lazard4976120%0.6
Aaron Jones342509%0.9
Romeo Doubs4921020%-5.9
Amari Rodgers111402%0.9
A.J. Dillon4611014%-3.9
Josiah Deguara11902%0.9
Randall Cobb11802%0.4
Juwann Winfree01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell250.000
Adrian Amos420.000
Quay Walker330.000
Jarran Reed310.000
Rasul Douglas200.000
Preston Smith200.000
Rudy Ford200.000
Rashan Gary201.000
Darnell Savage200.001
Eric Stokes200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -7.5
Closing total
44.5
NYJ moneyline
+305
GB moneyline
-362

Packers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
NYJ 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Matt LaFleur