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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q3 5:52, 4th and 20 — 15.0 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:52, Jets +15.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:52 · 4th and 20
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 1 of 10 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Braxton Berrios's 20-yard rushing touchdown with 8:19 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryPackers
Jets ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 50 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Packers’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Packers 2.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's play-action rate, 42.9%, sat 24.4 points above their season number of 18.5% — they faked the run by 2.2 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 41.7% in week 5 against 18.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 50 snaps
Packers1.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jets35.0%leaned — ran early · −21.6 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 40 early downs
Packers67.3%leaned — passed early · +14.4 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 55%
Tendencies room →Jets42.9%off script — faked the run · +24.4 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+2.18× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Packers18.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Jets0.0%inside their normal wobble · −30.4 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Packers60.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.7 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Jets8.2%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Packers28.6%right on their number · +5.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Jets18.4%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Packers9.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 24.4 points above their season mean of 18.5% and 2.2 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
26/41, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-13.3 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
10/18, 110 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.8 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Braxton Berrios banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.1 | +1.6 | 67% | 62% | 12% | 0% | 20 car, 116 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +1.8 | 63% | 78% | 27% | 25% | 10/12, 90 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +2.1 | 97% | 96% | 20% | 43% | 4/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −1.7 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 26/41, 246 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +6.8 | 29% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 1 car, 20 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 9.2 | −4.5 | 49% | 45% | 14% | 0% | 10 car, 41 yd · 4/6, 11 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 7.4 | −2.6 | 56% | 59% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 19 yd · 3/4, 25 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Featured Receiver | 7.2 | −1.1 | 85% | 95% | 24% | 57% | 2/4, 52 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −9.1 | 96% | 96% | 20% | 30% | 4/9, 21 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 5.7 | −1.4 | 49% | 48% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 41 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 4.5 | −6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 10/18, 110 yd · 5 car, 1 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.8 | 78% | 62% | 12% | 0% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −2.7 | 67% | 67% | 12% | 13% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/2, 16 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.9 | 33% | 33% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 36% | 41% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 1.8 | −5.8 | 44% | 62% | 29% | 31% | 1/5, 8 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB | 0.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 18% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by NYJ-29-L.Joyner at GB 34.
Q2 8:46 · Packers · 3rd & 1 at GB 33 · gained nothing · -4.79 EP · −14.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Jets3
Packers0Jets3Packers3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Jets9Packers3Jets10Packers3Jets16Packers3Jets17Packers3Jets17Packers9Jets17Packers10Jets23Packers10Jets24Packers10Jets27Packers10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 10/18 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Michael Carter | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Braxton Berrios |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 24% | +2.8 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/41 | 246 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −13.3 |
| Jordan Love | 2/4 | 8 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_NYJ_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 20 |
| 20.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.5 |
| Zach Wilson | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| +1.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29% | −5.1 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Vinny Curry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hardee | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Tonyan | 10 | 12 | 90 | 0 | 27% | −0.1 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 20% | +0.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +0.9 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 20% | −5.9 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| A.J. Dillon | 4 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −3.9 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
