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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q1 1:36, 3rd and 1, on Jeffery Wilson — 15.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:36 · 3rd and 1
Jeffery Wilson
Falcons
(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle), recovered by ATL-32-J.Hawkins at SF -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Atlanta Falcons 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 1:36, Falcons +15.9% win probability on one snap.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against 49ers at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 5 chunk plays, against 49ers at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle)
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marcus Mariota's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:02 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryFalcons
49ers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 57 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Falcons’s 56 at 30%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Falcons 3.
49ers outgained Falcons 346-289 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's early-down pass rate, 23.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 11.2 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
SF's early-down pass rate, 77.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
SF's pass rate over expected, +5.2 pts, is past their previous high of +2.5 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
SF's sack or hit rate, 11.8%, is past their previous low of 13.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
17 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers5.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.4 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 57 snaps
Falcons-19.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 82%
Tendencies room →49ers77.1%off script — passed early · +29.3 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+2.32× that swing) · 48 early downs
Falcons23.8%off script — ran early · −18.9 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−2.33× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 65%
Tendencies room →49ers23.8%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons29.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 88%
Fourth Down room →49ers33.3%right on their number · +8.6 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±19.8 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →49ers17.6%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Falcons19.0%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 31%
Tendencies room →49ers11.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.7 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 17 dropbacks
Falcons9.5%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
ATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 18.9 points below their season mean of 42.7% and 2.3 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
29/41, 296 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
3.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/14, 129 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.2 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brandon Aiyuk banked 10.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.3 | +10.7 | 92% | 90% | 27% | 33% | 8/11, 83 yd, 2 TD |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 24.2 | +9.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/14, 129 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/41, 296 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 11 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 16.3 | +0.6 | 98% | 95% | 24% | 10% | 8/10, 83 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 16.0 | 0.0 | 83% | 81% | 24% | 28% | 2 car, 11 yd · 7/10, 79 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | +3.7 | 57% | 76% | 21% | 23% | 3/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | +3.4 | 74% | 82% | 29% | 35% | 4/4, 58 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 7.3 | +1.1 | 53% | 48% | 10% | 1% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.4 | 28% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | +0.5 | 67% | 94% | 29% | 47% | 3/4, 40 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −5.7 | 34% | 12% | 0% | — | 16 car, 59 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 5.1 | −2.5 | 57% | 76% | 0% | — | 15 car, 51 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.1 | 32% | 33% | 7% | 4% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 2.0 | +0.3 | 48% | 12% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 1.8 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 0.5 | −3.9 | 52% | 48% | 2% | 3% | 7 car, 25 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB | 0.3 | −1.9 | 20% | 19% | 0% | — | 4 car, 3 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 27% | 26% | 2% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 33% | 40% | 2% | 14% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle), recovered by ATL-32-J.Hawkins at SF -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:36 · 49ers · 3rd & 1 at SF 20 · gained 1 · -7.24 EP · −11.2% win probability
144 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 1 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Falcons649ers0Falcons7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
49ers0Falcons1349ers0Falcons1449ers6Falcons1449ers7Falcons1449ers13Falcons1449ers14Falcons1449ers14Falcons2049ers14Falcons2149ers14Falcons2749ers14Falcons28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 29/41 | 296 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | −7.7 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 8 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 24% | +2.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 11 | 83 | 2 | 27% | +8.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/14 | 129 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Huntley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_SF_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 42 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 24% | −4.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.6 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Ridgeway | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Womack | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Jackson | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Hyder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
| 59 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 29% | +3.7 |
| Drake London | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29% | +1.0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 21% | +2.2 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +0.5 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Andersen | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Richie Grant | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Dickerson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darren Hall | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
