2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta FalconsWinner

SF -3.5 upsetU 46 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 28–14. Biggest swing: Q1 1:36, SF +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:36SF 0 — ATL 13SF ball · 3rd & 1ATL 55%

(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:36SF +16% win prob(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle), recovered by ATL-32-J.Hawkins at SF -4. TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:39ATL +9% win prob(11:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:10ATL +9% win prob(1:10) 42-C.Huntley right end to SF 3 for 16 yards (31-T.Gipson, 29-T.Hufanga).
Q3 · 8:44ATL +9% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:51ATL Touchdown
(8:51) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — ATL 7
Q1 · 1:36ATL Touchdown
(1:36) 22-J.Wilson left guard to SF 21 for 1 yard (47-A.Ebiketie). FUMBLES (47-A.Ebiketie), touched at SF 21, RECOVERED by ATL-24-A.Terrell at SF 22. 24-A.Terrell to SF 1 for 21 yards (85-G.Kittle). FUMBLES (85-G.Kittle), recovered by ATL-32-J.Hawkins at SF -4. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 0 — ATL 14
Q2 · 11:39SF Touchdown
(11:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — ATL 14
Q2 · 7:13SF Touchdown
(7:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [47-A.Ebiketie]. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — ATL 14
Q2 · 1:02ATL Touchdown
(1:02) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — ATL 21
Q3 · 8:44ATL Touchdown
(8:44) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 14 — ATL 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Falcons
Offensive plays	57	56
Total yards	346 (edge)	289
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	53% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	74%	30%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/8	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

49ers outgained Falcons 346–289 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

29/41, 296 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

13/14, 129 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Caleb HuntleyRB

16 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

15 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

8/10 for 83 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

8/11 for 83 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 26	13	74	6:14	Touchdown +7
2	SF	SF 28	5	6	1:48	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 32	6	29	3:59	Punt
4	SF	SF 11	3	10	1:33	Defensive touchdown
5	SF	SF 21	10	79	4:52	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 25	5	3	2:18	Punt
7	SF	ATL 32	5	32	2:09	Touchdown +7
8	ATL	ATL 25	13	65	6:10	Touchdown +7
9	SF	SF 25	6	22	0:57	Interception
10	SF	SF 30	5	5	1:08	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 35	10	65	5:12	Touchdown +7
12	SF	SF 25	7	19	2:01	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 10	7	18	3:59	Punt
14	SF	SF 20	6	22	2:55	Interception
15	ATL	ATL 45	7	15	4:03	Punt
16	SF	SF 1	16	100	8:08	Turnover on downs
17	ATL	ATL 19	6	20	1:30	Punt
18	SF	SF 19	4	51	1:04	End of game

5 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 100 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	29/41	296	2	2	0	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	7	25	3.6	-7.7
Jimmy Garoppolo	3	11	3.7	0.4
Deebo Samuel	2	11	5.5	0.4
Tevin Coleman	4	3	0.8	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	8	10	83	0	24%	2.8
Brandon Aiyuk	8	11	83	2	27%	8.9
Deebo Samuel	7	10	79	0	24%	-4.5
Kyle Juszczyk	4	4	33	0	10%	0.1
Jauan Jennings	2	3	18	0	7%	-0.5
Jeffery Wilson	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.6
Charlie Woerner	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Fred Warner	5	2	0.0
Tashaun Gipson	4	3	0.0
Samson Ebukam	2	3	0.0
Dre Greenlaw	3	2	0.0
Talanoa Hufanga	4	1	0.0
Hassan Ridgeway	2	2	0.0
Charles Omenihu	2	2	1.0
Samuel Womack	2	2	0.0
Drake Jackson	3	0	1.0
Kerry Hyder	2	0	0.0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	13/14	129	2	0	2	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Caleb Huntley	16	59	3.7	0	0.7
Tyler Allgeier	15	51	3.4	0	-2.3
Marcus Mariota	6	50	8.3	1	4.1
Avery Williams	2	6	3.0	0	-1.0
Keith Smith	1	2	2.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	4	4	58	0	29%	3.7
Drake London	3	4	40	0	29%	1.0
Kyle Pitts	3	3	19	1	21%	2.2
Keith Smith	1	1	8	0	7%	0.5
Avery Williams	1	1	2	0	7%	-0.5
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	2	1	7%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Troy Andersen	6	6	0	0
Rashaan Evans	6	5	0	1
Richie Grant	4	1	0	1
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	3	1	1
Matt Dickerson	2	1	0	0
A.J. Terrell	1	2	0	1
Arnold Ebiketie	2	1	0	0
Grady Jarrett	0	3	0	1
Darren Hall	1	1	0	2
Isaiah Oliver	1	1	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 46
SF moneyline: -185
ATL moneyline: +166

49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 42 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: SF 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Arthur Smith