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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 6
It turned at Q4 3:07, 3rd and 15, on Chase Claypool — 17.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:07, Steelers +17.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:07 · 3rd and 15
Chase Claypool
Steelers
(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 14 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 27.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Najee Harris's 6-yard touchdown catch with 7:44 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Najee Harris6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny PickettLead never changed again+70–7
Leonard Fournette11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+618–209 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categorySteelers
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 68 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Steelers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate, 5.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
PIT's play-action rate, 2.9%, is past their previous low of 6.1% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +18.9 pts in week 5 against −3.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 46.2% in week 5 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-3.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 67 snaps
Steelers-0.4 ptsright on their number · +3.3 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 99%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers58.8%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 51 early downs
Steelers46.5%right on their number · −5.3 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers11.9%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Steelers2.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -46% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −8.7 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers25.0%right on their number · +6.7 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 65%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers44.1%leaned — sent pressure · +11.2 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Steelers16.7%inside their normal wobble · −11.6 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Steelers11.9%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
TB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
25/40, 243 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.8 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
9/12, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.3 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chase Claypool banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.4 | +9.1 | 86% | 91% | 26% | 38% | 1 car, 8 yd · 7/7, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.1 | −2.8 | 82% | 79% | 16% | 0% | 21 car, 63 yd · 6/6, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | −5.6 | 89% | 91% | 32% | 48% | 6/12, 95 yd |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −7.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/40, 243 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | −0.1 | 69% | 59% | 11% | 0% | 14 car, 42 yd · 2/3, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 10.3 | +3.4 | 42% | — | 0% | — | 9/12, 144 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 5 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −4.3 | 95% | 100% | 26% | 24% | 2 car, 8 yd · 5/7, 28 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | −2.5 | 58% | — | 0% | — | 11/18, 67 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 16 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +1.4 | 96% | 95% | 11% | 12% | 4/4, 42 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB · Receiving Back | 6.9 | +2.3 | 47% | 53% | 11% | 11% | 2/3, 49 yd |
| George PickensWR · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −6.0 | 83% | 88% | 22% | 29% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/6, 27 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 5.3 | −2.9 | 22% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 4 car, 12 yd · 3/4, 11 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −4.0 | 56% | 47% | 8% | 13% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −4.8 | 76% | 79% | 11% | 14% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −3.5 | 47% | 56% | 8% | 10% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 66% | 59% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 0.2 | −0.8 | 31% | 41% | 0% | — | 2 car, 2 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaelon DardenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Steven SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.5 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward to TB 11 for 45 yards (54-L.David). Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 10:58 · Steelers · 3rd & 6 at PIT 44 · gained 45 · +4.04 EP · +12.5% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 73 yards from the TB 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Steelers6Buccaneers0Steelers7Buccaneers3Steelers7Buccaneers6Steelers7Buccaneers6Steelers10Buccaneers9Steelers10Buccaneers9Steelers13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers12Steelers13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers12Steelers19Buccaneers12Steelers20How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers18Steelers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/40 | 243 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Tom Brady |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 32% | +2.1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 9/12 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | 11/18 | 67 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_06_TB_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 38 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| +2.8 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 16% | +2.3 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Dee Delaney | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Tryon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 26% | +11.5 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 11% | +2.1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 26% | −0.8 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 22% | −0.2 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Norwood | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arthur Maulet | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
