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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers 20. Final.
Buccaneers -10 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:07, 3rd and 15, on Chase Claypool — 17.8 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:07 · 3rd and 15
Chase Claypool
Steelers
(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
U 47 ✓
Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:07, Steelers +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Connor HeywardSteelersQ4 10:58(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward to TB 11 for 45 yards (54-L.David). Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Offside, declined.
14.6pts
Chase ClaypoolSteelersQ4 2:15(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool ran ob at TB 38 for 26 yards.
12.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 14 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 27.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Buccaneers172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Swing +17.8 for SteelersExpected points +2.25 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 18 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:07PIT +18% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 10:58PIT +15% win prob(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward to TB 11 for 45 yards (54-L.David). Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 2:15PIT +12% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool ran ob at TB 38 for 26 yards.
4th · 6:25PIT +12% win prob(6:25) 7-L.Fournette right end to PIT 22 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood).
4th · 3:51TB +12% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky Aborted. 61-M.Cole FUMBLES at PIT 28, recovered by PIT-10-M.Trubisky at PIT 20.
4th · 12:14PIT +11% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 14-G.Pickens to PIT 40 for 14 yards (24-C.Davis).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Najee Harris's 6-yard touchdown catch with 7:44 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th4:45Leonard Fournette·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+618–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categorySteelers
Buccaneers3–3Steelers
304Total yards273
4.5Yards per play4.6
50%Success rate42%
29%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
19First downs14
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Buccaneers: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.03Steelers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.25Steelers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.26Steelers: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 68 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Steelers 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 5.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 14.0% in week 4.
A 3.9-swing turn from week 5.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: +18.9 pts in week 5 against −3.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 46.2% in week 5 against 16.7% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Steelers11.9%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%72 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%72 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time96%69 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time89%64 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time82%59 snaps
17Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational47%34 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Rotational25%18 snaps
29Rachaad WhiteRB · Situational22%16 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational3%2 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Situational3%2 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sean Murphy-BuntingCBAkiem HicksDTMike EdwardsFSLogan RyanFSKyle TraskQBKyle RudolphTEJulio JonesWR
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward to TB 11 for 45 yards (54-L.David). Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 10:58 · Steelers · 3rd & 6 at PIT 44 · gained 45 · +4.04 EP · +12.5% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 73 yards from the TB 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
574
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1155%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0369%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4050%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5367%
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers0Steelers6
Buccaneers0Steelers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Buccaneers 6
Buccaneers3Steelers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Steelers 12
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Steelers 29
2nd quarter48 plays
Buccaneers6Steelers7
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 1
Buccaneers6Steelers10
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Buccaneers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 15
Buccaneers9Steelers10
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Steelers 36
3rd quarter44 plays
Buccaneers9Steelers13
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Buccaneers12Steelers13
Field goal19 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Steelers 4
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 24
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Buccaneers 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 26
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Buccaneers12Steelers19
Buccaneers12Steelers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Buccaneers 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Buccaneers18Steelers20
Touchdown17 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Steelers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
