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2022 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 16, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

18

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

20

TB -10 upsetU 47 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 20–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:07, PIT +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑TB ↓
Q4 · 3:07TB 18 — PIT 20PIT ball · 3rd & 15PIT 53%

(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:07PIT +18% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
  2. Q4 · 10:58PIT +15% win prob(10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 83-Co.Heyward to TB 11 for 45 yards (54-L.David). Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. Penalty on TB-50-V.Vea, Defensive Offside, declined.
  3. Q4 · 2:15PIT +12% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool ran ob at TB 38 for 26 yards.
  4. Q4 · 6:25PIT +12% win prob(6:25) 7-L.Fournette right end to PIT 22 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:44PIT Touchdown

    (7:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 0 — PIT 7
  2. Q1 · 2:54TB Field goal

    (2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 11:04TB Field goal

    (11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — PIT 7
  4. Q2 · 4:12PIT Field goal

    (4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: TB 6 — PIT 10
  5. Q2 · 0:04TB Field goal

    (:04) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 9 — PIT 10
  6. Q3 · 13:58PIT Field goal

    (13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: TB 9 — PIT 13
  7. Q3 · 7:26TB Field goal

    (7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: TB 12 — PIT 13
  8. Q4 · 9:59PIT Touchdown

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 11-C.Claypool for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 12 — PIT 20
  9. Q4 · 4:45TB Touchdown

    (4:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 18 — PIT 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersSteelers
Offensive plays6859
Total yards304 (edge)273
Yards per play4.54.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)0.03
Success rate50% (edge)42%
Dropback rate62%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.190.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.26
Third downs4/147/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)44
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)14
Sacks taken22
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

25/40, 243 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

9/12, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.3 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

21 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

14 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

7/7 for 96 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/12 for 95 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 25510:58Punt
2PITPIT 3412566:24Touchdown +7
3TBTB 2813554:48Field goal +3
4PITPIT 135-91:25Punt
5TBTB 4611505:24Field goal +3
6PITPIT 1913546:54Field goal +3
7TBTB 25581:25Punt
8PITPIT 26420:40Punt
9TBTB 25691:16Punt
10PITPIT 14410:23Punt
11TBTB 494150:23Field goal +3
12PITTB 12551:05Field goal +3
13TBTB 2515646:31Field goal +3
14PITPIT 258263:10Punt
15TBTB 154162:07Punt
16PITPIT 48451:37Punt
17TBTB 17481:52Punt
18PITPIT 299713:43Touchdown +7
19TBTB 2716785:17Touchdown +6
20PITPIT 2511624:38End of game

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady25/402431027.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette21633.00-1.3
Rachaad White4123.00-0.6
Tom Brady100.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Godwin61295032%2.1
Mike Evans4442011%2.8
Leonard Fournette6638116%2.3
Cade Otton232308%2.1
Russell Gage2420011%0.6
Cameron Brate231408%-0.3
Rachaad White3411011%1.1
Breshad Perriman01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David550.000
Jamel Dean600.000
Devin White240.001
Dee Delaney410.000
Antoine Winfield501.000
Carlton Davis310.001
Joe Tryon120.000
Shaquil Barrett120.000
Keanu Neal210.000
Anthony Nelson110.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mitchell Trubisky9/1214410110.3
Kenny Pickett11/1867101-2.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris14423.00-3.1
Kenny Pickett2168.000.8
Chase Claypool188.000.3
Diontae Johnson284.00-0.5
Mitchell Trubisky650.80-5.3
Jaylen Warren221.000.8
George Pickens111.00-0.5
Steven Sims1-5-5.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chase Claypool7796126%11.5
Connor Heyward2349011%2.1
Diontae Johnson5728026%-0.8
George Pickens3627022%-0.2
Najee Harris237111%0.5
Zach Gentry11404%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrell Edmunds540.000
Myles Jack620.001
Devin Bush420.000
Malik Reed230.001
Tre Norwood500.000
Robert Spillane220.001
Josh Jackson400.000
Arthur Maulet210.000
Larry Ogunjobi210.000
James Pierre210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -10
Closing total
47
TB moneyline
-386
PIT moneyline
+323

Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 38 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
TB 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Mike Tomlin