For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q1 13:07, 1st and 10, on Tyler Boyd — 13.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:07, Bengals +13.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:07 · 1st and 10
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.42 expected points per snap, against Falcons at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.60 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Boyd's 60-yard touchdown catch with 13:07 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 45 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Bengals 6.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's pass rate over expected, +21.6 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 10.1 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected, −21.3 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
CIN's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, is past their previous high of 23.1% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-21.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.4 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 45 snaps
Bengals21.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.6 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Falcons31.4%leaned — ran early · −11.3 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 35 early downs
Bengals69.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 65%
Tendencies room →Falcons21.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −14.5 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Bengals8.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −24.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Falcons31.1%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals5.3%leaned — sat back · −15.4 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 32%
Tendencies room →Falcons13.3%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals26.3%leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.6 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of 8.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
34/42, 481 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
27.0 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
8/13, 124 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Receiving · CIN
8/11 for 130 yds, 2 TD
26% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Damiere Byrd banked 12.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 39.2 | +11.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/42, 481 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.0 | +9.8 | 93% | 98% | 26% | 29% | 8/11, 130 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyler BoydWR · Featured Receiver | 29.5 | +12.0 | 75% | 89% | 21% | 32% | 8/9, 155 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.1 | −3.6 | 72% | 64% | 7% | 2% | 17 car, 58 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 33 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +12.3 | 34% | 42% | 8% | 41% | 1/1, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +1.1 | 84% | 98% | 17% | 21% | 5/7, 93 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 8/13, 124 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 31 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 11.0 | −2.8 | 62% | 53% | 0% | — | 16 car, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Hayden HurstTE · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | −2.6 | 62% | 78% | 19% | 14% | 6/8, 48 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.1 | +0.5 | 62% | 74% | 33% | 37% | 3/4, 31 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 3.9 | −5.5 | 79% | 84% | 42% | 20% | 3/5, 9 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.2 | 38% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 2.8 | −0.6 | 29% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 2.2 | −0.6 | 23% | 21% | 0% | — | 6 car, 22 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 85% | 95% | 8% | 5% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.4 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris EvansRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:07 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 40 · gained 60 · +4.53 EP · +12.5% win probability
143 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, manual charting on 127. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 94 yards from the CIN 3 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons0
Bengals6Falcons0Bengals7Falcons0Bengals13Falcons0Bengals14Falcons0Bengals20Falcons0Bengals21Falcons6Bengals21Falcons7Bengals21Falcons7Bengals27Falcons7Bengals28Falcons13Bengals28Falcons14Bengals28Falcons17Bengals28Falcons17Bengals34Falcons17Bengals35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 8/13 | 124 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Caleb Huntley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 75 | 1 | 8% | +6.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashaan Evans | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cornell Armstrong |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 34/42 | 481 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +27.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_ATL_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 22 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 33% |
| +3.7 |
| Drake London | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 42% | −2.6 |
| Avery Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Darren Hall | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Andersen | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Malone | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 | −2.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 8 | 9 | 155 | 1 | 21% | +11.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8 | 11 | 130 | 2 | 26% | +11.5 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 | 17% | +2.8 |
| Hayden Hurst | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Carter | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Bailey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Tufele | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
