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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

17

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

35

CIN -6.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:07, CIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑ATL ↓
Q1 · 13:07ATL 0 — CIN 6CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 71%

(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:07CIN +14% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 11:25ATL +4% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins (22-C.Armstrong).
  3. Q2 · 0:20ATL +4% win prob(:20) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to CIN 25 for 56 yards (51-M.Bailey).
  4. Q1 · 12:22CIN +3% win prob(12:22) 25-T.Allgeier left end to ATL 38 for 9 yards (22-C.Awuzie, 91-T.Hendrickson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:07CIN Touchdown

    (13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 4:55CIN Touchdown

    (4:55) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CIN 14
  3. Q2 · 15:00CIN Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — CIN 21
  4. Q2 · 4:49ATL Touchdown

    (4:49) 25-T.Allgeier left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CIN 21
  5. Q2 · 0:57CIN Touchdown

    (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — CIN 28
  6. Q2 · 0:49ATL Touchdown

    (:49) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 14-D.Byrd for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — CIN 28
  7. Q2 · 0:03ATL Field goal

    (:03) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — CIN 28
  8. Q3 · 5:28CIN Touchdown

    (5:28) 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — CIN 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsBengals
Offensive plays4565
Total yards214538 (edge)
Yards per play4.88.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.010.42 (edge)
Success rate38%57% (edge)
Dropback rate42%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.030.60 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.000.02 (edge)
Third downs4/107/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)411 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1227 (edge)
Sacks taken33
Turnovers00

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

34/42, 481 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

27.0 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

8/13, 124 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

17 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

16 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

8/9 for 155 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

8/11 for 130 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 166842:00Touchdown +7
2ATLATL 257182:56Punt
3CINCIN 2912755:13Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 25571:36Punt
5CINCIN 257853:20Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 25187410:09Touchdown +7
7CINCIN 169843:57Touchdown +7
8ATLATL 253750:10Touchdown +7
9CINCIN 256190:36Punt
10ATLCIN 25100:03Field goal +3
11ATLATL 25511:02Punt
12CINCIN 435302:38Turnover on downs
13ATLATL 27472:16Punt
14CINCIN 388573:44Touchdown +7
15ATLATL 25793:26Punt
16CINCIN 216112:53Punt
17ATLATL 2010235:17Punt
18CINCIN 317938:44End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 93 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota8/131241031.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier16503.110.5
Marcus Mariota6315.200.4
Caleb Huntley6223.70-1.1
Avery Williams144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Damiere Byrd117518%6.6
Olamide Zaccheaus3431033%3.7
Drake London11908%0.7
Kyle Pitts359042%-2.6
Avery Williams01008%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylinn Hawkins740.001
Rashaan Evans460.000
Cornell Armstrong620.001
Darren Hall510.000
Troy Andersen320.000
Ta'Quon Graham210.000
Richie Grant300.000
Isaiah Oliver120.001
Grady Jarrett111.001
DeAngelo Malone111.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow34/4248130327.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon17583.41-1.2
Joe Burrow3206.71-2.7
Samaje Perine100.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Boyd89155121%11.5
Ja'Marr Chase811130226%11.5
Tee Higgins5793017%2.8
Hayden Hurst6848019%3.2
Joe Mixon333307%2.2
Mitchell Wilcox221405%-0.3
Samaje Perine22805%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akeem Davis-Gaither730.000
Germaine Pratt240.000
Zach Carter410.000
Markus Bailey310.000
Jay Tufele130.000
Vonn Bell210.000
Sam Hubbard201.001
Cam Taylor-Britt200.000
Chidobe Awuzie200.000
Trey Hendrickson111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Closing total
47.5
ATL moneyline
+235
CIN moneyline
-271

Bengals closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
ATL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Zac Taylor