For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Falcons145 of 155 plays carry both curves
(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.5 for BengalsExpected points +4.53 for BengalsThe model had Falcons 14 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:07CIN +14% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:25ATL +4% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins (22-C.Armstrong).
2nd · 0:20ATL +4% win prob(:20) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 35-A.Williams to CIN 25 for 56 yards (51-M.Bailey).
1st · 12:22CIN +3% win prob(12:22) 25-T.Allgeier left end to ATL 38 for 9 yards (22-C.Awuzie, 91-T.Hendrickson).
1st · 7:21CIN +3% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at ATL 1 for 14 yards (34-D.Hall).
1st · 8:51CIN +3% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at ATL 33 for 22 yards (32-J.Hawkins). ATL-24-A.Terrell was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Boyd's 60-yard touchdown catch with 13:07 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:07Tyler Boyd·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+70–7
Bengals ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.42Bengals: +0.42 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Falcons: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.60Bengals: +0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Falcons: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 45 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Bengals 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.42 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +21.6 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 10.1 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −21.3 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −19.4 pts in week 6.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, is past their previous high of 23.1% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 6.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals26.3%
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.6 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of 8.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%47 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%47 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%47 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%47 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%47 snaps
1Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%47 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time85%40 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation79%37 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Heavy rotation68%32 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation62%29 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Heavy rotation62%29 snaps
14Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational34%16 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational30%14 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational26%12 snaps
42Caleb HuntleyRB · Situational23%11 snaps
35Avery WilliamsRB · Situational15%7 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Situational11%5 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational4%2 snaps
15Feleipe FranksTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Dee AlfordCBMatt DickersonDTQuinton BellOLBChuma EdogaTAnthony FirkserTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:07 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 40 · gained 60 · +4.53 EP · +12.5% win probability
143 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, manual charting on 127. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 94 yards from the CIN 3 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
45%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.4374%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.0047%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2938%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.1213%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0333%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Falcons0Bengals6
Falcons0Bengals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 40
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
Falcons0Bengals13
Falcons0Bengals14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Falcons 1
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Falcons 44
2nd quarter44 plays
Falcons0Bengals20
Falcons0Bengals21
Touchdown2 plays
Falcons6Bengals21
Falcons7Bengals21
Touchdown20 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bengals 1
Falcons7Bengals27
Falcons7Bengals28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Falcons 41
Falcons13Bengals28
Falcons14Bengals28
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 44
Falcons17Bengals28
Field goal1 play
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Falcons 27
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 34
Falcons17Bengals34
Falcons17Bengals35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Falcons 1
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 33
4th quarter36 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 32
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Bengals 49
The period ended23 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Falcons 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
