2022 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 24, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -9.5 upsetO 40 ✓Patriots closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 33–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:40, CHI +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:40CHI 17 — NE 14NE ball · 1st & 10NE 63%

(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:40CHI +17% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).
Q3 · 2:13CHI +11% win prob(2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (3-J.Peppers).
Q2 · 7:44CHI +10% win prob(7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Bryant (9-M.Judon) at NE 39. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 11 yards (19-E.St. Brown). CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.
Q2 · 2:00NE +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:06CHI Field goal
(9:06) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — NE 0
Q1 · 2:16CHI Touchdown
(2:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NE 0
Q2 · 9:52NE Touchdown
(9:52) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NE 7
Q2 · 6:08NE Touchdown
(6:08) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-64-M.Pennel was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 10 — NE 14
Q2 · 2:00CHI Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 17 — NE 14
Q2 · 0:03CHI Field goal
(:03) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 20 — NE 14
Q3 · 9:51CHI Field goal
(9:51) 2-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 23 — NE 14
Q3 · 3:54CHI Field goal
(3:54) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 26 — NE 14
Q4 · 12:17CHI Touchdown
(12:17) 71-R.Reiff reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 33 — NE 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Patriots
Offensive plays	69	47
Total yards	391 (edge)	261
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	54% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	38%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	11/18 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.25.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Bailey ZappeQB

14/22, 185 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.5 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

13/21, 179 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

14 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

12 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

3/5 for 68 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

8/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 17	5	5	2:06	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 34	8	46	3:52	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 21	5	10	2:33	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 44	8	56	4:18	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 23	11	41	4:03	Interception
6	CHI	CHI 27	4	-9	1:13	Punt
7	NE	NE 45	5	55	2:12	Touchdown +7
8	CHI	CHI 30	5	20	2:09	Interception
9	NE	50	4	50	1:30	Touchdown +7
10	CHI	CHI 25	11	75	4:10	Touchdown +7
11	NE	NE 27	4	12	0:22	Fumble
12	CHI	NE 37	7	27	1:32	Field goal +3
13	CHI	CHI 24	11	61	5:13	Field goal +3
14	NE	NE 25	5	-4	1:30	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 22	10	46	4:27	Field goal +3
16	NE	NE 25	5	18	1:49	Punt
17	CHI	NE 39	9	39	4:48	Touchdown +7
18	NE	NE 18	9	38	4:23	Interception
19	CHI	CHI 37	5	22	3:17	Punt
20	NE	NE 14	7	36	1:53	Interception
21	CHI	NE 10	4	8	2:15	Turnover on downs
22	NE	NE 3	1	0	0:25	End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	13/21	179	1	1	4	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Fields	14	82	5.9	1	3.5
Khalil Herbert	12	62	5.2	0	0.4
David Montgomery	15	62	4.1	1	-0.1
Dante Pettis	1	29	29.0	0	2.1
Trestan Ebner	3	8	2.7	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	3	6	53	0	29%	2.2
Equanimeous St. Brown	4	7	48	0	33%	-0.2
Cole Kmet	2	3	32	0	14%	2.7
Khalil Herbert	1	2	25	1	10%	2.5
N'Keal Harry	1	1	14	0	5%	0.9
Ryan Griffin	1	1	5	0	5%	0.0
Dante Pettis	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	8	4	1.0	1	1
Jaquan Brisker	5	2	0.0	1	1
Nicholas Morrow	2	2	0.0	0	0
Eddie Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Jones	1	1	0.0	0	2
Armon Watts	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Sterling Weatherford	2	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Pennel	1	1	0.0	0	0
Trestan Ebner	1	0	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bailey Zappe	14/22	185	1	2	1	-2.5
Mac Jones	3/6	13	0	1	0	-5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	11	39	3.5	1	0.5
Mac Jones	3	24	8.0	0	1.6
Damien Harris	3	8	2.7	0	-1.0
Bailey Zappe	2	-1	-0.5	0	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	3	5	68	0	18%	1.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	8	59	0	29%	2.5
Jakobi Meyers	2	2	34	1	7%	4.2
Tyquan Thornton	1	5	19	0	18%	-4.9
Hunter Henry	1	2	12	0	7%	0.3
Jonnu Smith	1	3	4	0	11%	-4.8
Damien Harris	1	2	2	0	7%	-0.9
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	4%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	5	4	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	6	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	3	4	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	6	1	0.0	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	2	4	1.0	0	1
Jalen Mills	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	4	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	2	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -9.5
Closing total: 40
CHI moneyline: +327
NE moneyline: -392

Patriots closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 47 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CHI 11 days · NE 8 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Bill Belichick