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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 33 at New England Patriots 14. Final.
Patriots -9.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Chicago Bears 33, Patriots 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:40, 1st and 10 — 16.7 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:40 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).
O 40 ✓
Patriots closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 33–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:40, Bears +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Myles BryantPatriotsQ2 7:44(7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Bryant (9-M.Judon) at NE 39. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 11 yards (19-E.St. Brown). CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.
10.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ3 2:13(2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (3-J.Peppers).
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 4 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.25 expected points per snap.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bears153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).
Swing −16.7 for PatriotsExpected points −4.54 for PatriotsThe model had Bears 19 points higher than the market did.play 76
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:40CHI +17% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).
3rd · 2:13CHI +11% win prob(2:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to CHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (3-J.Peppers).
2nd · 7:44CHI +10% win prob(7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Bryant (9-M.Judon) at NE 39. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 11 yards (19-E.St. Brown). CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.
2nd · 2:00NE +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].
2nd · 0:41NE +10% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles up the middle ran ob at NE 21 for 20 yards (13-Ja.Jones).
2nd · 9:52NE +9% win prob(9:52) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Khalil Herbert's 25-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:06Cairo Santos·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+33–0
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Bears: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.25Patriots: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Patriots: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.34Patriots: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 69 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Patriots’s 47 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, Patriots 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.25.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 53.8% in week 6 against 33.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Patriots23.1%
leaned — got home · +8.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteNE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.8%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 26.3% and 1.8 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%71 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time96%68 snaps
67Sam MustipherC · Full-time86%61 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Zappe FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:40) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, RECOVERED by CHI-93-Ju.Jones at NE 37. 93-Ju.Jones to NE 37 for no gain (38-R.Stevenson).
Q2 1:40 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 39 · gained nothing · -4.54 EP · −15.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
45%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3569%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2544%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.0331%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1463%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2325%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.220%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 22
Bears3Patriots0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Patriots 24
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 26
Bears9Patriots0
Bears10Patriots0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Patriots 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 42
2nd quarter52 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 36
Punt4 plays
Bears10Patriots6
Bears10Patriots7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Bears 30
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bears10Patriots13
Bears10Patriots14
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Bears 4
Bears16Patriots14
Bears17Patriots14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Patriots 25
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 39
Bears20Patriots14
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 5
3rd quarter37 plays
Bears23Patriots14
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Patriots 20
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Bears26Patriots14
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Patriots 32
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 33
4th quarter35 plays
Bears32Patriots14
Bears33Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 1
Intercepted10 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Bears 44
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Patriots 41
Intercepted7 plays, from the Patriots 14 to midfield
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
