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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q4 2:09, 4th and 10, on Cade York — 15.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:09, Ravens +15.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:09 · 4th and 10
Cade York
Ravens
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Gus Edwards's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryRavens
Browns ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 56 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 62 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Ravens 4.
Browns outgained Ravens 336-255 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's blitz rate sent, 42.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
BAL's pass rate over expected, −19.7 pts, is past their previous low of −1.2 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate, 31.1%, is past their previous low of 52.1% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
BAL's sack or hit rate, 20.6%, is past their previous high of 18.8% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 6 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-7.6 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 56 snaps
Ravens-19.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.7 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 83%
Tendencies room →Browns54.5%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 44 early downs
Ravens31.1%leaned — ran early · −19.7 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Browns14.7%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Ravens9.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.2 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 57.4%.
Ravens50.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.5 vs their 34.5%, and they swing ±26.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 54%
Tendencies room →Browns42.9%leaned — sent pressure · +19.2 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens23.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 30%
Tendencies room →Browns23.8%leaned — got home · +12.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens20.6%leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
CLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 1.8 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
22/27, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.5 expected points added · +17.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
9/16, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
6/6 for 71 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Gus Edwards banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.7 | +3.4 | 57% | 47% | 12% | 0% | 16 car, 91 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 18.6 | +6.7 | 36% | 24% | 6% | 2% | 16 car, 66 yd, 2 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | +3.4 | 62% | 56% | 28% | 13% | 7/7, 71 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | +3.0 | 93% | 91% | 24% | 36% | 6/6, 71 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 9/16, 120 yd · 10 car, 59 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.6 | 95% | 100% | 16% | 51% | 3/4, 74 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 258 yd · 3 car, 18 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −1.5 | 56% | 71% | 31% | 39% | 4/5, 42 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 7.8 | −0.3 | 47% | 59% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 4 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Featured Receiver | 6.2 | +1.4 | 66% | 76% | 19% | 25% | 2/3, 42 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB · Receiving Back | 4.0 | +0.7 | 88% | 67% | 13% | 0% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.2 | 57% | 59% | 8% | 6% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 57% | 65% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 0.6 | −1.8 | 31% | 48% | 0% | — | 5 car, 26 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB · Committee Back | 0.5 | −8.5 | 27% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 11 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −4.9 | 88% | 90% | 13% | 25% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 48% | 33% | 6% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 2:09 · Browns · 4th & 10 at BAL 42 · gained nothing · -1.56 EP · −21.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Ravens0Browns7Ravens0Browns7Ravens3How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns10Ravens3Browns10Ravens6Browns10Ravens12Browns10Ravens13Browns10Ravens19Browns10Ravens20Browns13Ravens20Browns13Ravens23Browns19Ravens23Browns20Ravens23How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/27 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Kareem Hunt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 16% | +4.2 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Takitaki | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacob Phillips |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9/16 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_CLE_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 43 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 0.8 |
| 1 |
| −0.9 |
| 24% |
| +1.6 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 28% | +3.4 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| David Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Martin Emerson | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greedy Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 2 | +4.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | −6.4 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 31% | +1.9 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 19% | +2.5 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.5 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Welch | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
