For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland20
BY 3final margin
RavensBaltimore23
Cleveland Browns 20 at Baltimore Ravens 23. Final.
Ravens -6.5 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Baltimore Ravens 23, Browns 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:09, 4th and 10, on Cade York — 15.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:09 · 4th and 10
Cade York
Ravens
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:09, Ravens +15.5% win probability on one snap.
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justice HillBrownsQ4 3:20(3:20) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle to CLE 20 for 4 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah). FUMBLES (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah), touched at CLE 17, RECOVERED by CLE-58-I.Thomas at CLE 16. Penalty on BAL-65-P.Mekari, Offensive Holding, declined.
13.4pts
Donovan Peoples-JonesBrownsQ4 2:45(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at BAL 42 for 37 yards (26-G.Stone) [99-O.Oweh].
13.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns155 of 167 plays carry both curves
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Swing +15.5 for RavensExpected points +1.56 for RavensThe model had Browns 7 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:09CLE +16% win prob(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 2:45BAL +14% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at BAL 42 for 37 yards (26-G.Stone) [99-O.Oweh].
4th · 3:20CLE +13% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle to CLE 20 for 4 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah). FUMBLES (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah), touched at CLE 17, RECOVERED by CLE-58-I.Thomas at CLE 16. Penalty on BAL-65-P.Mekari, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 3:27BAL +9% win prob(3:27) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at BAL 20 for 55 yards (26-G.Stone).
3rd · 12:04CLE +9% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CLE 30 for -7 yards (93-C.Campbell). FUMBLES (93-C.Campbell), RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at CLE 25.
2nd · 2:00BAL +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gus Edwards's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Browns: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.07Ravens: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Browns: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.19Ravens: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Browns: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.01Ravens: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 56 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 62 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Ravens 4.
NoteBrowns outgained Ravens 336-255 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's blitz rate sent, 42.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 6 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +12.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Ravens20.6%
leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.8%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 11.3% and 1.8 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cade York−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 2:09 · Browns · 4th & 10 at BAL 42 · gained nothing · -1.56 EP · −21.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
590
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0866%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR25+0.0320%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.2221%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1942%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0567%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Browns6Ravens0
Browns7Ravens0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 2
Browns7Ravens3
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 14
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Browns10Ravens3
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 15
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 25
Punt4 plays
Browns10Ravens6
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 16
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
Browns10Ravens12
Browns10Ravens13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Browns 7
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Ravens 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Browns10Ravens19
Browns10Ravens20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 1
Browns13Ravens20
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
4th quarter53 plays
Browns13Ravens23
Field goal8 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Browns 34
Browns19Ravens23
Browns20Ravens23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 23
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Ravens 34
The period ended7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 49
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -6.5
Closing total
46
Browns moneyline
+244
Ravens moneyline
-282
Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 43 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north; 0.06 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Browns 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 6:45BAL +8% win prob(6:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 7-R.Bateman pushed ob at BAL 45 for 26 yards (26-G.Williams).
4th · 2:24CLE +7% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 2-A.Cooper for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CLE-2-A.Cooper, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 34 - No Play.
