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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland Browns

20

Baltimore RavensWinner

23

BAL -6.5 no coverU 46 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:09, CLE +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑CLE ↓
Q4 · 2:09CLE 20 — BAL 23CLE ball · 4th & 10BAL 78%

(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:09CLE +16% win prob(2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
  2. Q4 · 2:45BAL +14% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at BAL 42 for 37 yards (26-G.Stone) [99-O.Oweh].
  3. Q4 · 3:20CLE +13% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle to CLE 20 for 4 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah). FUMBLES (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah), touched at CLE 17, RECOVERED by CLE-58-I.Thomas at CLE 16. Penalty on BAL-65-P.Mekari, Offensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q1 · 3:27BAL +9% win prob(3:27) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper pushed ob at BAL 20 for 55 yards (26-G.Stone).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:26CLE Touchdown

    (8:26) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — BAL 0
  2. Q1 · 3:31BAL Field goal

    (3:31) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: CLE 7 — BAL 3
  3. Q1 · 0:22CLE Field goal

    (:22) 3-C.York 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 3
  4. Q2 · 10:09BAL Field goal

    (10:09) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 6
  5. Q2 · 2:00BAL Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 13
  6. Q3 · 7:43BAL Touchdown

    (7:43) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 10 — BAL 20
  7. Q3 · 2:44CLE Field goal

    (2:44) 3-C.York 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 13 — BAL 20
  8. Q4 · 11:29BAL Field goal

    (11:29) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: CLE 13 — BAL 23
  9. Q4 · 9:04CLE Touchdown

    (9:04) (No Huddle) 27-K.Hunt right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 20 — BAL 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsRavens
Offensive plays5662
Total yards336 (edge)255
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.1
Expected points added / play0.08 (edge)-0.07
Success rate48% (edge)44%
Dropback rate61%34%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.01
Third downs3/117/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps17 (edge)16
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Browns outgained Ravens 336–255 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

22/27, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · +17.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9/16, 120 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

16 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

16 att, 66 yds, 2 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

3/4 for 74 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

6/6 for 71 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 2513756:37Touchdown +7
2BALBAL 2510614:56Field goal +3
3CLECLE 256573:09Field goal +3
4BALBAL 25501:12Punt
5CLECLE 124-42:23Punt
6BALCLE 21451:38Field goal +3
7CLECLE 25591:57Punt
8BALBAL 2011806:11Touchdown +7
9CLECLE 129271:32Punt
10BALBAL 8100:25End of half
11BALBAL 255-191:37Punt
12CLECLE 403-151:26Fumble
13BALCLE 259204:18Touchdown +7
14CLECLE 2511334:59Field goal +3
15BALBAL 2514536:16Field goal +3
16CLECLE 259752:24Touchdown +7
17BALBAL 2513555:48Fumble
18CLECLE 167571:13Missed field goal
19BAL50401:43Punt
20CLECLE 203220:16Fumble

9 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett22/272580050.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb16915.713.2
Jacoby Brissett3186.001.6
Kareem Hunt540.81-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amari Cooper3474016%4.2
Donovan Peoples-Jones6671024%1.6
David Njoku7771028%3.4
Nick Chubb2316012%0.1
Harrison Bryant221508%1.2
David Bell11704%0.5
Kareem Hunt12408%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Sione Takitaki430.000
Grant Delpit430.001
Jacob Phillips600.000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah410.002
Martin Emerson401.000
Isaiah Thomas220.001
Deion Jones310.000
Myles Garrett401.000
John Johnson220.000
Greedy Williams210.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson9/16120003-4.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards16664.124.9
Lamar Jackson10595.905.2
Justice Hill5265.20-2.7
Kenyan Drake1150.50-6.4
Mark Andrews144.000.5
Patrick Ricard100.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashod Bateman4542031%1.9
Devin Duvernay2342019%2.5
Patrick Ricard2220013%0.2
Isaiah Likely111606%1.4
Gus Edwards01006%-0.6
Kenyan Drake01006%-1.3
Mark Andrews020013%-2.5
Josh Oliver01006%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen641.000
Chuck Clark430.000
Geno Stone700.000
Marlon Humphrey320.000
Calais Campbell311.000
Odafe Oweh120.000
Kyle Hamilton211.000
Broderick Washington110.000
Kristian Welch200.000
Jason Pierre-Paul110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Closing total
46
CLE moneyline
+244
BAL moneyline
-282

Ravens closed -6.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 43 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
CLE 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.