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Dallas Cowboys 24, Lions 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 12:29, 1st and 1, on Jamaal Williams — 20.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:29 · 1st and 1
Jamaal Williams
Cowboys
(12:29) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at DAL 1.
Dome
Cowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Dallas Cowboys 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 12:29, Cowboys +20.9% win probability on one snap.
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottLionsQ1 14:17(14:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 18 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 34-A.Anzalone).
10.3pts
Noah BrownLionsQ2 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown to DET 6 for 14 yards (31-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (31-K.Joseph), touched at DET 6, RECOVERED by DET-24-A.Oruwariye at DET 3.
14.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 5 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Lions151 of 159 plays carry both curves
(12:29) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at DAL 1.
Swing +20.9 for CowboysExpected points +6.16 for CowboysThe model had Lions 15 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:29DET +21% win prob(12:29) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at DAL 1.
2nd · 1:53DET +14% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 85-N.Brown to DET 6 for 14 yards (31-K.Joseph). FUMBLES (31-K.Joseph), touched at DET 6, RECOVERED by DET-24-A.Oruwariye at DET 3.
1st · 14:17DET +10% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 18 for -9 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 34-A.Anzalone).
1st · 13:37DAL +10% win prob(13:37) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DET 26, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 39 for 13 yards (85-N.Brown).
4th · 13:03DAL +10% win prob(13:03) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright pushed ob at DAL 1 for 17 yards (11-M.Parsons).
4th · 14:21DAL +9% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams left end to DAL 23 for 20 yards (7-T.Diggs).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ezekiel Elliott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:21 left in the 3rd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:02Michael Badgley·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–0
2nd12:27Brett Maher·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap M.Overton+33–3
2nd8:03Michael Badgley·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–3
3rd10:21Ezekiel Elliott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–10
4th2:00Peyton Hendershot·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+76–24
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCowboys
Lions0–8Cowboys
312Total yards332
5.6Yards per play5.8
48%Success rate53%
33%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
18First downs19
5Sacks taken2
5Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Lions: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Lions: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.14Cowboys: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Lions: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.09Cowboys: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 57 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's play-action rate, 42.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 7.1 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
DET's blitz rate sent, 10.7%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Cowboys18.8%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteDET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 33.1% and 2.0 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ja.Williams up−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:29) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DAL 2 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-42-A.Barr at DAL 1.
Q4 12:29 · Lions · 1st & goal at DAL 1 · gained nothing · -6.16 EP · −31.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 82 yards from the DAL 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
44%
Yards
642
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1159%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2460%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0367%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0150%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.750%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3040%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 27
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Cowboys 47
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 29
Lions3Cowboys0
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cowboys 21
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Lions 23
2nd quarter41 plays
Lions3Cowboys3
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 3
Lions6Cowboys3
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cowboys 25
Punt7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Lions 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 20
3rd quarter34 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 49
Lions6Cowboys9
Lions6Cowboys10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Lions 1
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 49
4th quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from midfield to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 29
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 44
Lions6Cowboys16
Lions6Cowboys17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Lions 1
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Lions6Cowboys23
Lions6Cowboys24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Lions 2
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -7
Closing total
49.5
Lions moneyline
+241
Cowboys moneyline
-278
Cowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 30 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Lions 14 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Mike McCarthy
3rd · 13:49DET +8% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 8-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at DAL 15. 7-T.Diggs to DAL 18 for 3 yards (8-J.Reynolds).
3rd · 0:51DAL +8% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 19 yards (3-A.Brown; 6-D.Wilson).
