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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · FedExField

Green Bay Packers

21

Washington CommandersWinner

23

GB -4 upsetO 41.5 ✓

Washington Commanders 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, GB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:05GB 21 — WAS 23GB ball · 2nd & 10WAS 81%

(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan to WAS 33 for 21 yards. Lateral to 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 38 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-50-Z.Tom at WAS 39. 50-Z.Tom to WAS 41 for -2 yards. Lateral

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:05GB +19% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan to WAS 33 for 21 yards. Lateral to 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 38 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-50-Z.Tom at WAS 39. 50-Z.Tom to WAS 41 for -2 yards. Lateral to 83-S.Toure to WAS 30 for 11 yards. Lateral to 12-A.Rodgers to WAS 21 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at WAS 21. Penalty on GB-73-Y.Nijman, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.
  2. Q2 · 13:42GB +16% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [52-R.Gary] at GB 37. 59-D.Campbell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:33WAS +13% win prob(3:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 33-A.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 11:55WAS +12% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:45GB Touchdown

    (6:45) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — WAS 0
  2. Q1 · 2:07WAS Field goal

    (2:07) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — WAS 3
  3. Q2 · 13:42GB Touchdown

    (13:42) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [52-R.Gary] at GB 37. 59-D.Campbell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — WAS 3
  4. Q2 · 7:26WAS Touchdown

    (7:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 24-A.Gibson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — WAS 10
  5. Q3 · 11:55WAS Touchdown

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — WAS 17
  6. Q3 · 0:11WAS Field goal

    (:11) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — WAS 20
  7. Q4 · 6:42WAS Field goal

    (6:42) 6-J.Slye 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — WAS 23
  8. Q4 · 3:33GB Touchdown

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 33-A.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — WAS 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersCommanders
Offensive plays4672
Total yards232364 (edge)
Yards per play5.05.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.10-0.06 (edge)
Success rate39% (edge)35%
Dropback rate74%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.08-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.13-0.08 (edge)
Third downs0/67/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)26 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1219 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

20/33, 201 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/35, 194 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

20 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

10 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/8 for 73 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

6/7 for 55 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 257172:54Punt
2WASWAS 3431:06Punt
3GBWAS 428424:22Touchdown +7
4WASWAS 30571:43Punt
5WASGB 176142:51Field goal +3
6GBGB 255141:40Punt
7WASWAS 365231:55Defensive touchdown
8WASWAS 1714836:08Touchdown +7
9GBGB 255-61:31Punt
10WASGB 43693:02Defensive touchdown
11GBGB 37641:25Punt
12WASWAS 31400:38Punt
13GBGB 1150:45End of half
14WASWAS 267693:11Touchdown +7
15GBGB 257222:53Punt
16WASWAS 1516728:48Field goal +3
17GBGB 258433:46Turnover on downs
18WASWAS 379464:42Field goal +3
19GBGB 2510483:14Touchdown +7
20WASWAS 2510383:03Punt
21GBGB 183430:23End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers23/35194200-2.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones8232.90-0.7
A.J. Dillon4153.80-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Allen Lazard6755021%1.2
Aaron Jones91053230%3.8
Sammy Watkins2436012%-0.2
Robert Tonyan3432012%-0.6
Amari Rodgers231409%0.5
Samori Toure11403%-0.4
Romeo Doubs040012%-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker670.001
Rasul Douglas550.003
Adrian Amos460.001
De'Vondre Campbell450.011
Rudy Ford130.000
Preston Smith220.000
Dean Lowry130.000
Jaire Alexander210.000
Eric Stokes210.000
Kingsley Enagbare121.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke20/33201211-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson20733.60-3.3
Antonio Gibson10595.901.2
Curtis Samuel5265.200.3
Taylor Heinicke242.00-1.2
J.D. McKissic144.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin5873125%2.7
Curtis Samuel5853025%5.2
Armani Rogers332809%2.2
Antonio Gibson3418113%2.2
Brian Robinson221306%1.2
Cam Sims121206%0.7
Dax Milne11403%-0.1
J.D. McKissic02006%-9.9
Cole Turner02006%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cole Holcomb440.000
Kamren Curl520.000
Darrick Forrest320.000
Jamin Davis220.000
Benjamin St-Juste210.000
Kendall Fuller210.001
Montez Sweat120.000
Rachad Wildgoose110.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -4
Closing total
41.5
GB moneyline
-195
WAS moneyline
+173

Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
GB 7 days · WAS 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Ron Rivera