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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:05, 2nd and 10, on Robert Tonyan — 18.5 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05 · 2nd and 10
Robert Tonyan
Commanders
(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan to WAS 33 for 21 yards. Lateral to 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 38 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-50-Z.Tom at WAS 39. 50-Z.Tom to WAS 41 for -2 yards. Lateral to 83-S.Toure to WAS 30 for 11 yards. Lateral to 12-A.Rodgers to WAS 21 for 9 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at WAS 21. Penalty on GB-73-Y.Nijman, Illegal Blindside Block, declined.
Washington Commanders 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Commanders +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Commanders won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Packers at 0 of 6 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Packers at 2 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan to WAS 33 for 21 yards. Lateral to 8-Am.Rodgers to WAS 38 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-50-Z.Tom at WAS 39. 50-Z.Tom to WAS 41 for -2 yards. Lateral
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Terry McLaurin's 37-yard touchdown catch with 11:55 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Terry McLaurin37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor HeinickeLead never changed again+714–178 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 46 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Commanders’s 72 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Commanders 5.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's play-action rate, 5.9%, is past their previous low of 16.2% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent, 2.9%, is past their previous low of 13.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, is past their previous low of 13.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.5% in week 6 against 25.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Packers7.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.5 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 46 snaps
Commanders-7.2 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Packers69.2%leaned — passed early · +16.3 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 39 early downs
Commanders37.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.6 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 56 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 55%
Tendencies room →Packers5.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −20.9 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.94× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders11.4%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Packers33.3%right on their number · −11.0 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Commanders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.3 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 54%
Tendencies room →Packers37.1%leaned — sent pressure · +14.4 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders2.9%leaned — sat back · −18.1 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.80× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Packers25.7%leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −15.9 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
GB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 20.9 points below their season mean of 26.8% and 1.9 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
20/33, 201 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.1 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected
Passing · GB
23/35, 194 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Terry McLaurin banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.6 | +4.8 | 74% | 80% | 30% | 0% | 8 car, 23 yd · 9/10, 53 yd, 2 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +6.7 | 95% | 94% | 25% | 56% | 5/8, 73 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 16.7 | +3.9 | 39% | 40% | 13% | 12% | 10 car, 59 yd · 3/4, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/35, 194 yd, 2 TD |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 14.4 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/33, 201 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | −3.2 | 77% | 80% | 25% | 20% | 5 car, 26 yd · 5/8, 53 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | +1.1 | 59% | 54% | 21% | 16% | 6/7, 55 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 10.6 | −4.4 | 47% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 20 car, 73 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.1 | 56% | 71% | 12% | 11% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Armani RogersTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.1 | 51% | 49% | 9% | 6% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.5 | 52% | 57% | 12% | 45% | 2/4, 36 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.2 | 30% | 31% | 9% | 25% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.3 | 66% | 77% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 1.5 | −0.7 | 30% | 26% | 0% | — | 4 car, 15 yd |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 35% | 34% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.5 | 35% | 26% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB | 0.4 | −2.5 | 16% | 31% | 6% | 4% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.8 | 89% | 91% | 12% | 7% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Cole TurnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.0 | 36% | 37% | 6% | 10% | 0/2, 0 yd |
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 23-J.McKissic INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell [52-R.Gary] at GB 37. 59-D.Campbell for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:42 · Commanders · 3rd & 5 at GB 41 · gained nothing · -9.20 EP · −24.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 83 yards from the WAS 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers6
Commanders0Packers7Commanders0Packers7Commanders3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers13Commanders3Packers14Commanders3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Packers14Commanders9Packers14Commanders10How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Packers14Commanders16Packers14Commanders17Packers14Commanders20Packers14Commanders23Packers20Commanders23Packers21Commanders23How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/35 | 194 | 2 | 0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −0.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 21% | +1.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 10 | 53 | 2 | 30% | +3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasul Douglas | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Adrian Amos | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 20/33 | 201 | 2 | 1 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_GB_WAS
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12% | −0.6 |
| Amari Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −6.7 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Rudy Ford | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 73 |
| 3.6 |
| 0 |
| −3.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 | 25% | +2.7 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 25% | +5.2 |
| Armani Rogers | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 13% | +2.2 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −9.9 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachad Wildgoose | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
