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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 38, Texans 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:20, 3rd and 7, on Phillip Dorsett — 17.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:20 · 3rd and 7
Phillip Dorsett
Texans
(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Raiders closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Las Vegas Raiders 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:20, Texans +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chris MooreTexansQ2 11:22(11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.7pts
Mack HollinsRaidersQ2 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Texans at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 8 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Texans153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.8 for RaidersExpected points −3.71 for RaidersThe model had Texans 14 points higher than the market did.play 104
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:20LV +18% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:31LV +13% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:22LV +12% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:37LV +11% win prob(13:37) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:34LV +10% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 88-J.Akins to LV 38 for 39 yards (30-D.Harmon).
1st · 4:44HOU +9% win prob(4:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
1st · 8:05LV +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 13:37 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:00Daniel Carlson·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+30–3
2nd11:22Chris Moore·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+77–3
2nd5:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+310–3
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Texans: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.32Raiders: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.44Raiders: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Texans: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.20Raiders: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Raiders 4.
NoteTexans outgained Raiders 404-401 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate, 35.7%, is past their previous high of 17.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Raiders19.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.4 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%65 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%65 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
54Scott QuessenberryC · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Full-time98%64 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
59Kenyon GreenG · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
15Chris MooreWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
4Phillip DorsettWR · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Rotational46%30 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Rotational46%30 snaps
83O.J. HowardTE · Rotational45%29 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational40%26 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Rotational35%23 snaps
64Justin McCrayC · Situational22%14 snaps
34Troy HairstonFB · Situational17%11 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational12%8 snaps
67Charlie HeckT · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 5
Isaac YiadomCBDemone HarrisDEJake HansenOLBAustin DeculusTTyler JohnsonWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:31 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at HOU 26 · gained 26 · +3.65 EP · +14.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, manual charting on 132. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 82 yards from the LV 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
47%
Yards
804
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3660%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0476%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.5229%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2667%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2738%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Texans0Raiders3
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Texans 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Raiders 21
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Raiders 34
2nd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Texans6Raiders3
Texans7Raiders3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 13
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 48
Texans10Raiders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Raiders 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Texans10Raiders9
Texans10Raiders10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Texans 26
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Texans13Raiders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Raiders 17
Texans13Raiders16
Texans13Raiders17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Texans 4
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans19Raiders17
Texans20Raiders17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Raiders 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Texans 42
4th quarter49 plays
Texans20Raiders23
Texans20Raiders24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 7
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 33
Texans20Raiders30
Texans20Raiders31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Texans 15
Texans20Raiders37
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Raiders 40
Texans20Raiders38
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Raiders 14
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
