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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q3 3:20, 3rd and 7, on Phillip Dorsett — 17.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:20, Texans +17.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:20 · 3rd and 7
Phillip Dorsett
Texans
(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Texans at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 8 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Jacobs's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 13:37 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Raiders’s 53 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Raiders 4.
Texans outgained Raiders 404-401 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's play-action rate, 35.7%, is past their previous high of 17.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-1.8 ptsright on their number · +0.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 65 snaps
Raiders-7.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Texans62.5%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 48 early downs
Raiders46.5%inside their normal wobble · −9.9 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →Texans21.4%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders35.7%leaned — faked the run · +15.0 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
Raiders—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Texans7.1%leaned — sat back · −11.0 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Raiders31.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Texans10.7%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Raiders19.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
LV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 15.0 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.4 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
28/41, 302 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
3.1 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Passing · LV
21/27, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Jacobs banked 17.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 36.5 | +17.3 | 80% | 75% | 15% | 0% | 20 car, 143 yd, 3 TD · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/41, 302 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.5 | +2.1 | 96% | 100% | 35% | 50% | 8/9, 95 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.7 | +1.1 | 52% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 20 car, 92 yd · 4/4, 25 yd |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | +2.4 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 241 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -1 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +6.6 | 54% | 62% | 8% | 21% | 2/3, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +6.4 | 100% | 100% | 12% | 22% | 2/3, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB · Receiving Back | 11.2 | +1.2 | 12% | 17% | 18% | 7% | 1 car, 8 yd · 5/7, 54 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +2.9 | 55% | 67% | 10% | 15% | 2/4, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +4.2 | 40% | 55% | 10% | 14% | 3/4, 68 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +0.4 | 89% | 88% | 13% | 15% | 4/5, 46 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +2.7 | 57% | 71% | 12% | 23% | 3/3, 55 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Receiving Back | 6.9 | −3.1 | 35% | 50% | 15% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd · 5/6, 11 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +2.0 | 46% | 43% | 8% | 10% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −2.4 | 96% | 96% | 19% | 16% | 3/5, 28 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2.7 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D.J. TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | — | 17% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −9.1 | 46% | 45% | 10% | 23% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 29% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:31 · Raiders · 2nd & 7 at HOU 26 · gained 26 · +3.65 EP · +14.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, manual charting on 132. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 82 yards from the LV 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Raiders3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Texans6Raiders3Texans7Raiders3Texans10Raiders3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Texans10Raiders9Texans10Raiders10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Texans13Raiders10Texans13Raiders16Texans13Raiders17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Texans19Raiders17Texans20Raiders17Texans20Raiders23Texans20Raiders24Texans20Raiders30Texans20Raiders31Texans20Raiders37Texans20Raiders38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 28/41 | 302 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Rex Burkhead |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 | 10% | +7.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/27 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_HOU_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| 18% |
| +0.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 13% | +1.6 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 8% | +3.9 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 10% | +2.6 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 15% | −3.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −12.4 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 3 | +6.9 |
| D.J. Turner | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 35% | +7.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 12% | +4.4 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 12% | +3.9 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −0.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 15% | +0.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Martinez | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
