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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium

Houston Texans

20

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

38

LV -7 ✓O 46 ✓Dome

Las Vegas Raiders 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:20, LV +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 3:20HOU 19 — LV 17HOU ball · 3rd & 7LV 70%

(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 3:20LV +18% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:31LV +13% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 11:22LV +12% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 13:37LV +11% win prob(13:37) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:00LV Field goal

    (10:00) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — LV 3
  2. Q2 · 11:22HOU Touchdown

    (11:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — LV 3
  3. Q2 · 5:02HOU Field goal

    (5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — LV 3
  4. Q2 · 0:31LV Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-M.Hollins for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — LV 10
  5. Q3 · 11:04HOU Field goal

    (11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — LV 10
  6. Q3 · 5:54LV Touchdown

    (5:54) 28-J.Jacobs left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — LV 17
  7. Q3 · 3:20HOU Touchdown

    (3:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 4-P.Dorsett for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LV 17
  8. Q4 · 13:37LV Touchdown

    (13:37) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LV 24
  9. Q4 · 7:12LV Touchdown

    (7:12) 28-J.Jacobs left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LV 31
  10. Q4 · 3:39LV Touchdown

    (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 9-B.Jordan INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon at LV 27. 30-D.Harmon for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — LV 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansRaiders
Offensive plays6553
Total yards404 (edge)401
Yards per play6.27.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.32 (edge)
Success rate46%58% (edge)
Dropback rate65%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.070.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.030.20 (edge)
Third downs9/15 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)811 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2125 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers10 (edge)

Texans outgained Raiders 404–401 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

28/41, 302 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

21/27, 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

20 att, 143 yds, 3 TD

6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

20 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

8/9 for 95 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Jordan AkinsTE

3/4 for 68 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 2412545:06Field goal +3
2HOUHOU 2510545:14Missed field goal
3LVLV 29402:01Punt
4HOUHOU 3814626:22Touchdown +7
5LVLV 98383:49Punt
6HOUHOU 207432:31Field goal +3
7LVLV 1812824:32Touchdown +7
8HOUHOU 252-60:25End of half
9HOUHOU 169674:01Field goal +3
10LVLV 2512755:11Touchdown +7
11HOUHOU 268742:34Touchdown +7
12LVLV 249764:42Touchdown +7
13HOUHOU 24592:11Punt
14LVLV 198764:15Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 2511353:40Defensive touchdown
16HOUHOU 2012662:19Turnover on downs
17LVLV 14201:07End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills28/413022113.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce20924.60-0.8
Dare Ogunbowale188.000.8
Rex Burkhead284.000.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Akins3468010%7.8
Dare Ogunbowale5754018%0.2
Brandin Cooks4546013%1.6
Phillip Dorsett234518%3.9
Nico Collins333308%2.2
Dameon Pierce4425010%1.4
Chris Moore2420110%2.6
Rex Burkhead5611015%-3.3
Brevin Jordan040010%-12.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jonathan Owens910.000
Christian Kirksey810.000
Desmond King500.000
Derek Stingley500.000
Jalen Pitre310.000
Kamu Grugier-Hill210.000
Thomas Booker110.000
Eric Murray110.000
Steven Nelson110.001
Dare Ogunbowale100.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr21/2724110112.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs201437.236.9
D.J. Turner3206.700.1
Zamir White122.00-0.3
Derek Carr3-1-0.30-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams8995035%7.6
Hunter Renfrow3355012%4.4
Mack Hollins2344112%3.9
Foster Moreau3528019%-0.3
Josh Jacobs3412015%0.7
Ameer Abdullah22708%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Divine Deablo650.000
Johnathan Abram620.000
Duron Harmon510.011
Rock Ya-Sin420.000
Denzel Perryman410.000
Maxx Crosby310.001
Trevon Moehrig220.001
Ameer Abdullah300.000
Blake Martinez210.000
Clelin Ferrell120.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -7
Closing total
46
HOU moneyline
+278
LV moneyline
-325

Raiders closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
HOU 14 days · LV 13 days
Coaches
Lovie Smith vs Josh McDaniels