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Indianapolis Colts 10 at Tennessee Titans 19. Final.
Titans -2.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Tennessee Titans 19, Colts 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:36, 2nd and 12, on Andrew Adams — 24.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:36 · 2nd and 12
Andrew Adams
Titans
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Tennessee Titans 19–10. Biggest swing: Q2 9:36, Titans +24.6% win probability on one snap.
24.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan TannehillColtsQ1 11:43(11:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 26 for -7 yards (23-K.Moore).
6.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetColtsQ4 11:10(11:10) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 48, RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 45.
8.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Colts151 of 158 plays carry both curves
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.6 for TitansExpected points +10.28 for TitansThe model had Colts 4 points higher than the market did.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:36IND +25% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:10IND +8% win prob(11:10) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 48, RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 45.
1st · 11:43IND +7% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 26 for -7 yards (23-K.Moore).
2nd · 10:51TEN +7% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 26 for 14 yards (31-K.Byard, 47-A.Adams).
3rd · 4:12TEN +6% win prob(4:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:47IND +6% win prob(5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Long at TEN 34. 51-D.Long to TEN 38 for 4 yards (11-M.Pittman).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randy Bullock's 27-yard field goal with 4:07 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:07Randy Bullock·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+30–3
2nd2:00Randy Bullock·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+30–13
3rd4:12Parris Campbell·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–13
4th13:51Randy Bullock·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+37–16
4th8:36Chase McLaughlin·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+310–16
4th4:52Randy Bullock·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+310–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryTitans
Colts4–5Titans
292Total yards256
4.6Yards per play4.7
48%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays5
18First downs14
3Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Colts: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Colts: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.16Titans: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Colts: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.30Titans: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Titans 3.
NoteColts outgained Titans 292-256 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 31.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 19.2% in week 4.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 27.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 40.4% in week 5.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +17.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.74× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Titans20.8%
inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.8%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 14.0% and 2.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−29% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 9:36 · Colts · 2nd & 12 at TEN 28 · gained nothing · -10.28 EP · −29.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 62 yards from the TEN 28 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
42%
Yards
546
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.2273%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1232%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.0561%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.1020%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1750%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 37
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 40
Colts0Titans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Colts 10
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 29
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Colts0Titans9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Titans 26
Colts0Titans10
Intercepted9 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Titans 38
Colts0Titans13
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Colts 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Titans 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 27
Colts6Titans13
Colts7Titans13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Titans 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 25
4th quarter42 plays
Colts7Titans16
Field goal3 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 20
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 30
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Colts 44
Colts10Titans16
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Titans 31
Colts10Titans19
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Colts 30
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Colts 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
