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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q2 9:36, 2nd and 12, on Andrew Adams — 24.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 19–10. Biggest swing: Q2 9:36, Titans +24.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:36 · 2nd and 12
Andrew Adams
Titans
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Randy Bullock's 27-yard field goal with 4:07 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Randy Bullock27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Titans’s 55 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Titans 3.
Colts outgained Titans 292-256 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's sack or hit rate, 31.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +2.7σ from their own normal
TEN's early-down pass rate, 27.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Colts6.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.7 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 64 snaps
Titans-14.0 ptsright on their number · −3.3 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 82%
Tendencies room →Colts70.0%leaned — passed early · +13.1 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 50 early downs
Titans27.9%leaned — ran early · −18.5 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 57%
Tendencies room →Colts12.5%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Titans22.7%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Colts25.0%right on their number · −11.3 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Titans0.0%inside their normal wobble · −20.8 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Colts13.6%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Titans31.3%leaned — sent pressure · +10.3 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Colts31.8%off script — got home · +17.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.74× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Titans20.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
IND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.8%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 14.0% and 2.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
33/44, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-9.1 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
13/20, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
3.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
10/12 for 70 yds, 1 TD
29% of team targets · -5.4 expected points added
Receiving · IND
6/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Parris Campbell banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris CampbellWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.0 | +6.0 | 98% | 98% | 29% | 28% | 10/12, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.8 | −1.9 | 75% | 45% | 15% | 0% | 30 car, 128 yd · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | +0.8 | 55% | 52% | 20% | 0% | 10 car, 58 yd · 7/8, 27 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 33/44, 243 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −3.3 | 100% | 100% | 22% | 41% | 6/9, 58 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 9.3 | −0.9 | 38% | 42% | 12% | 1% | 4 car, 2 yd · 5/5, 41 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +3.8 | 44% | 73% | 15% | 30% | 3/3, 56 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.5 | 97% | 96% | 10% | 29% | 3/4, 37 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −0.3 | 75% | 86% | 20% | 21% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Cody HollisterWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.9 | 37% | 32% | 10% | 17% | 2/2, 32 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 3.9 | −5.1 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 132 yd · 4 car, 6 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 33% | 38% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.7 | 30% | 29% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.3 | 22% | 41% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Receiving Back | 0.4 | −4.3 | 29% | 50% | 10% | 6% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB | 0.3 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 63% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 76% | 82% | 10% | 24% | 0/2, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 9:36 · Colts · 2nd & 12 at TEN 28 · gained nothing · -10.28 EP · −29.3% win probability
149 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 62 yards from the TEN 28 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Titans3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Colts0Titans9Colts0Titans10Colts0Titans13Colts6Titans13Colts7Titans13Colts7Titans16Colts10Titans16Colts10Titans19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 33/44 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Matt Ryan |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 10 | 12 | 70 | 1 | 29% | −5.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Grover Stewart | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/20 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_IND_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | −2.0 |
| 22% |
| −2.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 12% | +3.6 |
| Alec Pierce | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 7 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 20% | −4.6 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.3 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyquan Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Banogu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 30 | 128 | 4.3 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −7.2 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 15% | +6.0 |
| Cody Hollister | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 20% | +2.6 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15% | +1.5 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Adams | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Amani Hooker | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
