2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Nissan Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -2.5 ✓U 43 ✓Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Tennessee Titans 19–10. Biggest swing: Q2 9:36, IND +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:36IND 0 — TEN 9IND ball · 2nd & 12TEN 53%

(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:36IND +25% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:10IND +8% win prob(11:10) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 48, RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND 45.
Q1 · 11:43IND +7% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 26 for -7 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q2 · 10:51TEN +7% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to TEN 26 for 14 yards (31-K.Byard, 47-A.Adams).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:07TEN Field goal
(4:07) 14-R.Bullock 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: IND 0 — TEN 3
Q2 · 9:36TEN Touchdown
(9:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 1-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 47-A.Adams [48-B.Dupree] at TEN 24. 47-A.Adams for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — TEN 10
Q2 · 2:00TEN Field goal
(2:00) 14-R.Bullock 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: IND 0 — TEN 13
Q3 · 4:12IND Touchdown
(4:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 13
Q4 · 13:51TEN Field goal
(13:51) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: IND 7 — TEN 16
Q4 · 8:36IND Field goal
(8:36) 7-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 16
Q4 · 4:52TEN Field goal
(4:52) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: IND 10 — TEN 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Titans
Offensive plays	64	55
Total yards	292 (edge)	256
Yards per play	4.6	4.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	75%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	5/13	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Colts outgained Titans 292–256 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Matt RyanQB

33/44, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-9.1 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

13/20, 132 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

30 att, 128 yds, 0 TD

-4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Parris CampbellWR

10/12 for 70 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · -5.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 17	7	4	4:07	Punt
2	IND	IND 33	4	7	1:18	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 28	11	62	5:32	Field goal +3
4	IND	IND 25	8	26	2:53	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 20	6	15	2:41	Punt
6	IND	IND 23	9	49	4:04	Defensive touchdown
7	IND	IND 20	9	42	3:44	Interception
8	TEN	TEN 38	8	39	3:44	Field goal +3
9	IND	IND 16	9	29	1:38	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 28	1	-9	0:19	End of half
11	IND	IND 17	8	28	3:10	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 20	4	4	1:23	Punt
13	IND	IND 42	13	58	6:20	Touchdown +7
14	TEN	TEN 25	12	55	5:20	Field goal +3
15	IND	IND 25	5	2	1:20	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 45	3	11	1:21	Fumble
17	IND	IND 45	6	24	2:35	Field goal +3
18	TEN	TEN 29	10	41	3:44	Field goal +3
19	IND	IND 25	6	27	1:25	Fumble
20	TEN	TEN 43	5	34	3:22	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 62 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	33/44	243	1	2	3	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	10	58	5.8	2.9
Deon Jackson	2	3	1.5	-0.5
Matt Ryan	1	2	2.0	-1.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	2	0.5	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Parris Campbell	10	12	70	1	29%	-5.4
Michael Pittman	6	9	58	0	22%	-2.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	5	41	0	12%	3.6
Alec Pierce	3	4	37	0	10%	1.8
Jonathan Taylor	7	8	27	0	20%	-4.6
Kylen Granson	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3
Jelani Woods	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Okereke	5	4	0.0	2
Grover Stewart	3	5	0.0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	3	0.0	0
E.J. Speed	4	0	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	3	1	1.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	2	2	1.0	0
Rodney McLeod	2	2	0.0	1
Tyquan Lewis	2	1	0.0	0
Ben Banogu	1	1	0.0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	1	1	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	13/20	132	0	0	2	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	30	128	4.3	-4.5
Ryan Tannehill	4	6	1.5	-7.2
Dontrell Hilliard	1	4	4.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	3	3	56	15%	6.0
Cody Hollister	2	2	32	10%	0.9
Robert Woods	3	4	26	20%	2.6
Derrick Henry	3	3	10	15%	1.5
Hassan Haskins	1	1	5	5%	-1.0
Mason Kinsey	1	1	3	5%	0.0
Dontrell Hilliard	0	2	0	10%	-1.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	2	0	10%	-1.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo	0	1	0	5%	-0.6
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Andrew Adams	6	4	0.0	1	1
Amani Hooker	6	1	0.0	0	0
Dylan Cole	3	3	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	3	3	0.0	1	2
Jeffery Simmons	2	3	1.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	2	3	0.0	0	0
Roger McCreary	5	0	0.0	0	1
Kevin Byard	1	2	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	3	0	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	2	1	1.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -2.5
Closing total: 43
IND moneyline: +129
TEN moneyline: -143

Titans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: IND 7 days · TEN 14 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.