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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Levi's Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

44

San Francisco 49ers

23

KC -1 ✓O 49 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 44–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, SF +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑KC ↓
Q2 · 1:55KC 14 — SF 13SF ball · 4th & 19KC 60%

(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:55SF +16% win prob(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.
  2. Q2 · 1:34KC +14% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Williams [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -1. 23-J.Williams to KC 6 for 7 yards (11-B.Aiyuk).
  3. Q4 · 12:54SF +13% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to SF 24 for 57 yards (7-C.Ward). 16 YAC
  4. Q2 · 0:11KC +12% win prob(:11) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:26SF Field goal

    (10:26) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: KC 0 — SF 3
  2. Q1 · 6:36SF Touchdown

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 3-R.McCloud for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-90-T.Stallworth, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 0 — SF 10
  3. Q1 · 2:14KC Touchdown

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 12 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — SF 10
  4. Q2 · 12:15SF Field goal

    (12:15) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: KC 7 — SF 13
  5. Q2 · 7:17KC Touchdown

    (7:17) 17-M.Hardman right end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 14 — SF 13
  6. Q3 · 13:34KC Touchdown

    (13:34) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 21 — SF 13
  7. Q3 · 7:46SF Field goal

    (7:46) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: KC 21 — SF 16
  8. Q3 · 3:35KC Touchdown

    (3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 28 — SF 16
  9. Q4 · 14:20SF Touchdown

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 0 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 28 — SF 23
  10. Q4 · 10:48KC Touchdown

    (10:48) 17-M.Hardman left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 35 — SF 23
  11. Q4 · 8:55KC Safety

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY (55-F.Clark).

    Score after this play: KC 37 — SF 23
  12. Q4 · 6:15KC Touchdown

    (6:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 31 YAC (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 44 — SF 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefs49ers
Offensive plays5571
Total yards532 (edge)445
Yards per play9.7 (edge)6.3
Expected points added / play0.60 (edge)0.05
Success rate58% (edge)48%
Dropback rate67%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.76 (edge)0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.29 (edge)0.09
Third downs6/8 (edge)8/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1010
First downs gained on snaps2324 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.60 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

25/34, 423 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

29.8 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

25/37, 303 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

7 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

8 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

7/8 for 124 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 12.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

3/4 for 111 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 2511634:38Field goal +3
2KCKC 25431:39Interception
3SFKC 345342:14Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2711734:22Touchdown +7
5SFSF 2211514:56Field goal +3
6KCKC 1012855:02Touchdown +7
7SFSF 1410635:22Punt
8SFKC 12370:19Interception
9KCKC 68881:22Missed field goal
10SFSF 29100:06End of half
11KCSF 335331:32Touchdown +7
12SFSF 1712525:47Field goal +3
13KCKC 2511854:10Touchdown +7
14SFSF 2510814:15Touchdown +7
15KCKC 208803:33Touchdown +7
16SFSF 54-101:54Safety
17KCKC 287822:44Touchdown +7
18SFSF 258372:05Fumble
19KCKC 49430:21Punt
20SFSF 1510672:09Interception
21KCKC 20301:30End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a missed field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes25/3442331129.8
Chad Henne0/20000-1.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco8435.40-0.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6325.310.9
Mecole Hardman22814.024.0
Jerick McKinnon2126.000.5
Chad Henne3-3-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster78124124%12.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling34111012%8.6
Travis Kelce6898024%4.6
Jerick McKinnon233609%3.9
Mecole Hardman4432112%3.0
Noah Gray111003%1.2
Joseph Fortson12806%0.1
Justin Watson12416%0.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire01003%-0.5
Skyy Moore01003%-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Juan Thornhill730.012
Nick Bolton730.000
Justin Reid520.000
Willie Gay240.500
L'Jarius Sneed320.501
Jaylen Watson220.000
Khalen Saunders210.500
Chris Jones212.000
George Karlaftis020.001
Carlos Dunlap110.001

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo25/373032152.4
Brock Purdy4/9660100.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson7547.702.7
Christian McCaffrey8384.80-0.3
Tyrion Davis-Price242.00-0.5
Jimmy Garoppolo221.000.4
Deebo Samuel122.00-0.6
Brock Purdy111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle6998120%2.9
Brandon Aiyuk71182024%3.3
Ray-Ray McCloud446519%6.8
Deebo Samuel5742015%0.5
Kyle Juszczyk343409%2.7
Christian McCaffrey222404%1.4
Jauan Jennings242409%-2.1
Jeffery Wilson01002%-0.8
Tyrion Davis-Price02004%-0.9
Danny Gray02004%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Charvarius Ward720.000
Fred Warner320.000
Tashaun Gipson500.001
Deommodore Lenoir220.000
Nick Bosa301.000
Talanoa Hufanga120.011
Samson Ebukam120.000
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles110.000
Jimmie Ward200.000
George Odum110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -1
Closing total
49
KC moneyline
-106
SF moneyline
-104

Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 49; the game landed 67 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
KC 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Kyle Shanahan