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Kansas City Chiefs 44 at San Francisco 49ers 23. Final.
Chiefs -1 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs 44, 49ers 23 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:55, 4th and 19 — 16.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:55 · 4th and 19
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.
Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.
Kansas City Chiefs 44–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, 49ers +16.1% win probability on one snap.
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joshua WilliamsChiefsQ2 1:34(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Williams [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -1. 23-J.Williams to KC 6 for 7 yards (11-B.Aiyuk).
13.6pts
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingChiefsQ4 12:54(12:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to SF 24 for 57 yards (7-C.Ward). 16 YAC
13.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.60 expected points per snap, against 49ers at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.76 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Chiefs176 of 185 plays carry both curves
(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.
Swing +16.1 for 49ersExpected points +4.38 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 10 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:55SF +16% win prob(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to KC 9, Center-46-T.Pepper. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-26-S.Womack at KC 12.
2nd · 1:34KC +14% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Williams [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -1. 23-J.Williams to KC 6 for 7 yards (11-B.Aiyuk).
4th · 12:54SF +13% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to SF 24 for 57 yards (7-C.Ward). 16 YAC
2nd · 0:11KC +12% win prob(:11) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
2nd · 1:09SF +11% win prob(1:09) 0 YAC (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to SF 30 for 40 yards (31-T.Gipson).
2nd · 5:18SF +10% win prob(5:18) 7 YAC (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to KC 46 for 34 yards (20-J.Reid).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mecole Hardman's 25-yard rushing touchdown with 7:17 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:26Robbie Gould·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–3
1st6:36Ray-Ray McCloud·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–10
1st2:14Mecole Hardman·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–10
2nd12:15Robbie Gould·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+37–13
2nd7:17Mecole Hardman·25-yd TD run25-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–13
4th8:55Frank Clark·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+237–23
4th6:15JuJu Smith-Schuster·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+744–23
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by category49ers
Chiefs7–149ers
532Total yards445
9.7Yards per play6.3
58%Success rate48%
75%Third-down rate57%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays10
23First downs24
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers3
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.76 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.60Chiefs: +0.60 expected points added per play
+0.0549ers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.76Chiefs: +0.76 expected points added per play
+0.0449ers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Chiefs: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against 49ers’s 71 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 7, 49ers 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.60 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's play-action rate, 5.4%, is past their previous low of 8.3% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
49ers8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.88× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 9.3 points below their season mean of 17.4% and 1.9 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%64 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Full-time91%58 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Full-time91%58 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Full-time91%58 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time91%58 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation58%37 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation55%35 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Williams [56-G.Karlaftis] at KC -1. 23-J.Williams to KC 6 for 7 yards (11-B.Aiyuk).
Q2 1:34 · 49ers · 3rd & 3 at KC 5 · gained nothing · -4.34 EP · −23.6% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
48%
Yards
973
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0783%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.6389%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.3068%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.6253%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1230%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.7844%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Chiefs049ers3
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 12
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs049ers9
Chiefs049ers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 8
Chiefs649ers10
Chiefs749ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the 49ers 8
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 45
2nd quarter51 plays
Chiefs749ers13
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Chiefs 24
Chiefs1349ers13
Chiefs1449ers13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the 49ers 25
Punt14 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the Chiefs 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 5
No good11 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the 49ers 6
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Chiefs2049ers13
Chiefs2149ers13
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 16
Chiefs2149ers16
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Chiefs 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Chiefs2749ers16
Chiefs2849ers16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the 49ers 4
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 46
4th quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chiefs2849ers22
Chiefs2849ers23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chiefs3449ers23
Chiefs3549ers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the 49ers 3
Chiefs3749ers23
Drive ended5 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the 49ers 10
Chiefs4349ers23
Chiefs4449ers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the 49ers 45
Fumble lost9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Chiefs 43
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the 49ers 48
Intercepted10 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Chiefs 18
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -1
Closing total
49
Chiefs moneyline
-106
49ers moneyline
-104
Chiefs closed -1 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 49; the game landed 67 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Kyle Shanahan
3rd · 4:22SF +10% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon to SF 4 for 34 yards (31-T.Gipson). 37 YAC
3rd · 15:00SF +10% win prob9-R.Gould kicks 61 yards from SF 35 to KC 4. 10-I.Pacheco ran ob at SF 48 for 48 yards (48-O.Burks). PENALTY on SF-15-J.Jennings, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 48.
