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2022 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 20, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans34
BY 8final margin
CardinalsArizona42
New Orleans Saints 34 at Arizona Cardinals 42. Final.
Cardinals -2.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Arizona Cardinals 42, Saints 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 1st and 10, on Marco Wilson — 26.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 1st and 10
Marco Wilson
Cardinals
(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Wilson at NO 38. 20-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cardinals closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Arizona Cardinals 42–34. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Cardinals +26.6% win probability on one snap.
26.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kevin WhiteSaintsQ2 11:52(11:52) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-K.White to ARI 3 for 64 yards (33-A.Hamilton). Arizona challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
14.7pts
Isaiah SimmonsCardinalsQ2 0:57(:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Simmons at ARI 44. 9-I.Simmons for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Cardinals at 3 of 10 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Saints177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Wilson at NO 38. 20-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +26.6 for CardinalsExpected points +7.99 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 4 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00NO +27% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Wilson at NO 38. 20-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:57NO +16% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Simmons at ARI 44. 9-I.Simmons for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:52ARI +15% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-K.White to ARI 3 for 64 yards (33-A.Hamilton). Arizona challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
1st · 13:02ARI +13% win prob(13:02) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:13NO +10% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 33-A.Hamilton at ARI -9. Touchback.
1st · 1:29ARI +10% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin up the middle pushed ob at NO 18 for 45 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marco Wilson's 38-yard touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:02Rashid Shaheed·53-yd TD catch53-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–0
1st10:58Rodrigo Blankenship·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+37–3
2nd13:19Rodrigo Blankenship·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+37–6
2nd10:33Taysom Hill·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+714–6
4th3:12Juwan Johnson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+731–42
4th0:47Wil Lutz·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+334–42
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryCardinals
Saints7–1Cardinals
495Total yards331
7.1Yards per play5.4
54%Success rate46%
46%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays7
24First downs20
0Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Saints: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Saints: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Saints 6, Cardinals 4.
NoteSaints outgained Cardinals 495-331 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's blitz rate sent, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 6.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals5.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.4%, 21.4 points above their season mean of 50.1% and 1.4 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 1-M.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Wilson at NO 38. 20-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:00 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 35 · gained nothing · -7.99 EP · −23.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 85 yards from the ARI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
824
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1779%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0450%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1354%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.6483%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.1611%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Saints6Cardinals0
Saints7Cardinals0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 48
Saints7Cardinals3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Saints 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted17 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Saints 17
2nd quarter46 plays
Saints7Cardinals6
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints13Cardinals6
Saints14Cardinals6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Saints14Cardinals12
Saints14Cardinals14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Saints 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints14Cardinals20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Saints14Cardinals26
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
Saints14Cardinals28
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Saints17Cardinals28
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Cardinals 7
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Saints 49
Saints17Cardinals34
Saints17Cardinals35
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Saints 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 32
4th quarter61 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 16
Saints23Cardinals35
Saints24Cardinals35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 17
Saints24Cardinals41
Saints24Cardinals42
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Saints 5
Saints30Cardinals42
Saints31Cardinals42
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 40
Saints34Cardinals42
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Cardinals 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
