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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:22, 4th and 15, on Marvin Jones — 23.2 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:22 · 4th and 15
Marvin Jones
Jaguars
(:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to NYG 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Love). PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.
New York Giants 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, Jaguars +23.2% win probability on one snap.
23.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.08 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 9 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to NYG 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Love). PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Jones's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 5:35 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 70 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 66 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Giants 6, Jaguars 6.
Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's blitz rate sent, 15.9%, is past their previous low of 30.6% in week 2 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
JAX's blitz rate sent, 38.9%, is past their previous high of 27.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.3 pts in week 6 against +3.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
JAX's play-action rate turned over: 44.4% in week 6 against 15.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-7.0 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 70 snaps
Jaguars3.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 85%
Tendencies room →Giants47.4%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 57 early downs
Jaguars64.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 56%
Tendencies room →Giants22.2%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars15.9%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Giants25.0%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±22.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±23.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 70%
Tendencies room →Giants15.9%off script — sat back · −23.9 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−2.13× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jaguars38.9%off script — sent pressure · +18.2 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Giants4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.3 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jaguars8.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.9%, 23.9 points below their season mean of 39.8% and 2.1 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
22/43, 310 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
11.3 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
19/30, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.8 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Daniel Jones banked 3.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 28.8 | +3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 202 yd, 1 TD · 11 car, 107 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.9 | +0.4 | 80% | 80% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 114 yd, 1 TD · 1/5, 5 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 18.7 | −8.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/43, 310 yd · 4 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.5 | −1.2 | 81% | 64% | 14% | 0% | 24 car, 110 yd · 4/4, 25 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 17.1 | −0.8 | 94% | 100% | 23% | 27% | 0/1, 0 yd · 1 car, 5 yd · 7/10, 96 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 14.8 | +3.7 | 57% | 64% | 21% | 45% | 3/6, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | +0.5 | 69% | 67% | 28% | 12% | 6/8, 50 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | −7.9 | 99% | 100% | 23% | 22% | 1 car, 14 yd · 4/10, 54 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | −2.8 | 85% | 89% | 16% | 13% | 4/7, 67 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −4.4 | 56% | 68% | 19% | 26% | 4/8, 57 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 4.3 | +1.0 | 23% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 19 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Chris MyarickTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.0 | 60% | 42% | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +1.9 | 14% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.0 | 31% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.6 | 34% | 36% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.5 | 13% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.6 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| James RobinsonRB | 0.0 | −2.9 | 17% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 39% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −9.7 | 79% | 86% | 10% | 11% | 0/3, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to NYG 1 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney, 20-J.Love).
Q4 0:07 · Jaguars · 3rd & 10 at NYG 17 · gained 16 · -2.52 EP · −21.5% win probability
174 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 190 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 79 yards from the NYG 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Giants6
Jaguars0Giants7Jaguars0Giants7Jaguars6Giants7Jaguars8Giants7Jaguars11Giants10Jaguars11How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Giants13Jaguars11How the play was built
A man in motion.
Giants13Jaguars17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Giants19Jaguars17Giants20Jaguars17Giants23Jaguars17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/30 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 24 | 110 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 107 | 9.7 | 1 | +10.8 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 21% | +4.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 28% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Moreau | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Julian Love | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adoree' Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/43 | 310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.3 |
| Christian Kirk | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_NYG_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +1.3 |
| Chris Myarick | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.8 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −5.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jihad Ward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 114 | 8.1 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 | −3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 23% | +2.4 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 16% | +3.6 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 19% | +2.6 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 23% | +4.2 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 2% | +1.5 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −2.6 |
| James Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darious Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Davon Hamilton | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lloyd | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre Herndon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
