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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
JetsNew York16
BY 7final margin
BroncosDenver9
New York Jets 16 at Denver Broncos 9. Final.
Jets -2 ✓U 37 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
New York Jets 16, Broncos 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:44, 4th and 10 — 18.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:44 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(14:44) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
18.4
19.4 mph wind
Jets closed -2 and covered, winning by 7.
New York Jets 16–9. Biggest swing: Q1 14:44, Jets +18.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breece HallJetsQ1 7:44(7:44) 20-Br.Hall left end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1pts
Lamarcus JoynerJetsQ3 1:33(1:33) 4-B.Rypien pass deep left intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Joyner at NYJ 36. 29-L.Joyner pushed ob at DEN 37 for 27 yards (73-C.Fleming).
18.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 16 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 14 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Broncos at +0.03 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Jets172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(14:44) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
Swing −18.4 for BroncosExpected points −1.10 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 12 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:44DEN +18% win prob(14:44) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
3rd · 1:33NYJ +18% win prob(1:33) 4-B.Rypien pass deep left intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Joyner at NYJ 36. 29-L.Joyner pushed ob at DEN 37 for 27 yards (73-C.Fleming).
1st · 7:44DEN +12% win prob(7:44) 20-Br.Hall left end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00DEN +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 32-Mi.Carter pushed ob at DEN 33 for 37 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 11:25NYJ +11% win prob(11:25) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
1st · 14:37DEN +11% win prob(14:37) 25-M.Gordon right guard to DEN 20 for 3 yards (95-Q.Williams).
4th · 2:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 45-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
1st1:37Latavius Murray·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+67–6
2nd3:41Brandon McManus·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap M.Fraboni+37–9
2nd0:03Greg Zuerlein·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+310–9
4th12:53Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+313–9
4th4:39Greg Zuerlein·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+316–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryBroncos
Jets3–6Broncos
261Total yards324
5.0Yards per play4.3
33%Success rate33%
21%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
9First downs17
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.27Broncos: −0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Jets: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 52 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Broncos’s 75 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Broncos 1.
NoteBroncos outgained Jets 324-261 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.0% in week 4.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 11 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Broncos12.5%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 18.5 points below their season mean of 18.5% and 1.6 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Rypien pass−21% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:33) 4-B.Rypien pass deep left intended for 80-G.Dulcich INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Joyner at NYJ 36. 29-L.Joyner pushed ob at DEN 37 for 27 yards (73-C.Fleming).
Q3 1:33 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 42 · gained nothing · -5.80 EP · −21.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
32%
Yards
584
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1177%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2668%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.0736%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3445%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.9367%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 43
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 22
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jets6Broncos0
Jets7Broncos0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 38
Jets7Broncos6
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt1 play
No good8 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Jets 38
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 46 to midfield
Jets7Broncos9
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Jets 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Jets10Broncos9
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 23
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 48
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 45
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 35
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 35
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 22
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 28
4th quarter49 plays
Jets13Broncos9
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 16
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Jets16Broncos9
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Broncos 22
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jets 49
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
