For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:25, 2nd and 2, on Noah Igbinoghene — 19.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 16–10. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, Dolphins +19.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:25 · 2nd and 2
Noah Igbinoghene
Dolphins
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Raheem Mostert's 8-yard touchdown catch with 10:51 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Raheem Mostert8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
PIT's blitz rate sent, 7.9%, is past their previous low of 12.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 6 against 12.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 16.7% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.5 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.2% in week 6 against 54.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers2.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 68 snaps
Dolphins0.6 ptsright on their number · −1.6 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Steelers65.4%leaned — passed early · +13.6 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 52 early downs
Dolphins54.3%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 67%
Tendencies room →Steelers16.7%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Dolphins34.2%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -45% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Steelers16.7%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins16.7%inside their normal wobble · −15.2 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±22.5 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 69%
Tendencies room →Steelers7.9%leaned — sat back · −20.3 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Dolphins12.5%leaned — sat back · −19.2 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Steelers2.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Dolphins10.4%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.9 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
21/35, 261 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.6 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
32/44, 257 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-5.8 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Pickens banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 20.9 | +1.8 | 71% | 71% | 14% | 4% | 16 car, 79 yd · 4/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 18.1 | +8.0 | 79% | 90% | 14% | 19% | 6/6, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 15.9 | −5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 261 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 15 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +1.9 | 59% | 73% | 21% | 25% | 8/9, 75 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.2 | −9.8 | 89% | 92% | 37% | 50% | 7/13, 72 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +3.6 | 79% | 87% | 14% | 17% | 4/5, 88 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.0 | −2.2 | 77% | 71% | 10% | 1% | 17 car, 65 yd · 3/4, 15 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/44, 257 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 3 car, 20 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.5 | −6.2 | 93% | 94% | 24% | 30% | 1 car, 3 yd · 5/10, 42 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −2.2 | 85% | 84% | 19% | 29% | 5/8, 41 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +2.7 | 56% | 68% | 9% | 10% | 3/3, 44 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Featured Receiver | 5.7 | −8.3 | 61% | 76% | 20% | 19% | 3/7, 27 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 4.4 | +0.6 | 23% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.8 | 45% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 0 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 1.7 | −5.4 | 29% | 29% | 6% | 1% | 7 car, 17 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Benny SnellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Derek WattRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
Q4 0:25 · Steelers · 2nd & 2 at MIA 25 · gained nothing · -3.06 EP · −28.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Dolphins6Steelers0Dolphins7Steelers0Dolphins10Steelers0Dolphins13Steelers3Dolphins13Steelers9Dolphins13Steelers10Dolphins13Steelers10Dolphins16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 32/44 | 257 | 1 | 3 | 2 | −5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jaylen Warren |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 21% | +4.1 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/35 | 261 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_PIT_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 26 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 14% |
| +6.3 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 24% | −7.6 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 19% | −3.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.5 |
| Zach Gentry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Devin Bush | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arthur Maulet | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Norwood | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 14% | +7.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 37% | −1.4 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 9% | +2.8 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 14% | +2.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 20% | −2.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Bethel | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clayton Fejedelem | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
