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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

10

Miami DolphinsWinner

16

MIA -7.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 16–10. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, PIT +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 0:25PIT 10 — MIA 16PIT ball · 2nd & 2MIA 80%

(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:25PIT +19% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
  2. Q4 · 3:06PIT +10% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 18. 8-J.Holland ran ob at PIT 49 for 33 yards (8-K.Pickett).
  3. Q4 · 1:06MIA +8% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).
  4. Q4 · 3:14PIT +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles left end to MIA 15 for 5 yards (15-J.Phillips). MIA-15-J.Phillips was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-65-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:51MIA Touchdown

    (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — MIA 7
  2. Q1 · 5:34MIA Field goal

    (5:34) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — MIA 10
  3. Q1 · 2:32MIA Field goal

    (2:32) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — MIA 13
  4. Q2 · 11:49PIT Field goal

    (11:49) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — MIA 13
  5. Q2 · 1:55PIT Touchdown

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — MIA 13
  6. Q2 · 0:07MIA Field goal

    (:07) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — MIA 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersDolphins
Offensive plays6861
Total yards341373 (edge)
Yards per play5.06.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.10-0.03 (edge)
Success rate41%43% (edge)
Dropback rate71%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.08 (edge)-0.30
Third downs4/144/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)58 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)17
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/35, 261 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

32/44, 257 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-5.8 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

16 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

17 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/5 for 88 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

8/9 for 75 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 2911764:15Touchdown +7
2PITPIT 25571:14Punt
3MIAMIA 358593:59Field goal +3
4PITPIT 25360:53Interception
5MIAMIA 477302:12Field goal +3
6PITPIT 2513485:43Field goal +3
7MIAMIA 258152:25Punt
8PITPIT 1414967:29Touchdown +7
9MIAMIA 159661:48Field goal +3
10PIT—100:02End of half
11PITPIT 275-22:12Punt
12MIAMIA 288584:11Turnover on downs
13PITPIT 156212:19Punt
14MIAMIA 21431:30Punt
15PITPIT 394102:51Punt
16MIAMIA 30491:20Punt
17PITPIT 185251:43Punt
18MIAMIA 125222:01Punt
19PITPIT 23461:38Punt
20MIAMIA 156282:19Punt
21PITPIT 1812624:59Interception
22MIAPIT 49470:26Punt
23PITPIT 1310622:13Interception
24MIAMIA 20100:18End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett32/44257132-5.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris17653.80-3.2
Kenny Pickett3206.700.5
Jaylen Warren273.501.9
Diontae Johnson133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Pat Freiermuth8975021%4.1
George Pickens6661114%6.3
Diontae Johnson51042024%-7.6
Chase Claypool5841019%-3.4
Jaylen Warren221705%-0.5
Najee Harris3415010%-1.4
Connor Heyward11602%0.5
Zach Gentry22005%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Myles Jack630.000
Cameron Heyward410.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick320.001
Terrell Edmunds230.002
Devin Bush410.001
Arthur Maulet220.000
Larry Ogunjobi210.000
Levi Wallace210.000
James Pierre200.000
Tre Norwood200.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa21/352611005.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert16794.90-1.4
Chase Edmonds7172.40-5.5
Tua Tagovailoa4153.80-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle4588014%7.0
Tyreek Hill71372037%-1.4
Trent Sherfield334409%2.8
Raheem Mostert4530114%2.0
Mike Gesicki3727020%-2.9
Chase Edmonds02006%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Andrew Van Ginkel550.000
Justin Bethel620.011
Jaelan Phillips341.500
Brandon Jones150.000
Clayton Fejedelem320.001
Jevon Holland410.011
Noah Igbinoghene310.011
Xavien Howard210.000
Duke Riley210.000
Zach Sieler120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Closing total
44.5
PIT moneyline
+255
MIA moneyline
-297

Dolphins closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 26 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
PIT 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Mike McDaniel