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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh10
BY 6final margin
DolphinsMiami16
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Miami Dolphins 16. Final.
Dolphins -7.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Miami Dolphins 16, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:25, 2nd and 2, on Noah Igbinoghene — 19.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:25 · 2nd and 2
Noah Igbinoghene
Dolphins
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
Dolphins closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Miami Dolphins 16–10. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, Dolphins +19.0% win probability on one snap.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jevon HollandDolphinsQ4 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 18. 8-J.Holland ran ob at PIT 49 for 33 yards (8-K.Pickett).
10.4pts
Pat FreiermuthSteelersQ4 1:06(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).
8.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Steelers168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
Swing +19.0 for DolphinsExpected points +3.06 for DolphinsThe model had Steelers 10 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:25PIT +19% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
4th · 3:06PIT +10% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at MIA 18. 8-J.Holland ran ob at PIT 49 for 33 yards (8-K.Pickett).
4th · 1:06MIA +8% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).
4th · 3:14PIT +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles left end to MIA 15 for 5 yards (15-J.Phillips). MIA-15-J.Phillips was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-65-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20 - No Play.
1st · 14:19MIA +8% win prob(14:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle to MIA 40 for 20 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
1st · 4:49PIT +6% win prob(4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Bethel at MIA 36. 20-J.Bethel to MIA 47 for 11 yards (11-C.Claypool).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Raheem Mostert's 8-yard touchdown catch with 10:51 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:51Raheem Mostert·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
1st5:34Jason Sanders·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+30–10
1st2:32Jason Sanders·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+30–13
2nd11:49Chris Boswell·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–13
2nd0:07Jason Sanders·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap B.Ferguson+310–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryDolphins
Steelers1–6Dolphins
341Total yards373
5.0Yards per play6.1
41%Success rate43%
29%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays8
18First downs17
2Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.03Dolphins: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Steelers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.30Dolphins: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Dolphins 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 6 against 12.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 16.7% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.5 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.2% in week 6 against 54.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Dolphins10.4%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.9 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett pass−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
Q4 0:25 · Steelers · 2nd & 2 at MIA 25 · gained nothing · -3.06 EP · −28.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
38%
Yards
713
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1073%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1274%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.2236%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.140%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0483%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Steelers0Dolphins6
Steelers0Dolphins7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Steelers 8
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
Steelers0Dolphins10
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Steelers 6
Intercepted3 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Steelers0Dolphins13
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Steelers 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 44
2nd quarter45 plays
Steelers3Dolphins13
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Dolphins 27
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
Steelers9Dolphins13
Steelers10Dolphins13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Dolphins 7
Steelers10Dolphins16
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Steelers 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Steelers 13
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 24
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 34
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 43
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Dolphins 34
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 29
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 44
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted16 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Dolphins 15
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Steelers 42
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Dolphins 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -7.5
Closing total
44.5
Steelers moneyline
+255
Dolphins moneyline
-297
Dolphins closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 26 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Mike McDaniel
4th · 4:46MIA +6% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to MIA 24 for 10 yards (45-D.Riley). MIA-98-R.Davis was injured during the play.
2nd · 1:55MIA +5% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
