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Seattle Seahawks 37 at Los Angeles Chargers 23. Final.
Chargers -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Seattle Seahawks 37, Chargers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:46, 2nd and 10, on Marquise Goodwin — 13.0 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:46 · 2nd and 10
Marquise Goodwin
Seahawks
(1:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-27-J.Jackson was injured during the play.
O 51.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 37–23. Biggest swing: Q2 1:46, Seahawks +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenneth MurrayChargersQ1 13:29(13:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (26-A.Samuel) at LAC 43. 9-K.Murray to SEA 41 for 16 yards (89-W.Dissly).
12.6pts
Ryan NealSeahawksQ1 5:36(5:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Neal at SEA 44. 26-R.Neal to LAC 43 for 13 yards (88-T.McKitty).
12.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.64 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Chargers at 5 of 15 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Seahawks175 of 183 plays carry both curves
(1:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-27-J.Jackson was injured during the play.
Swing −13.0 for ChargersExpected points −2.97 for ChargersThe model had Seahawks 9 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:46LAC +13% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-M.Goodwin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-27-J.Jackson was injured during the play.
1st · 13:29SEA +13% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (26-A.Samuel) at LAC 43. 9-K.Murray to SEA 41 for 16 yards (89-W.Dissly).
1st · 5:36SEA +12% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Neal at SEA 44. 26-R.Neal to LAC 43 for 13 yards (88-T.McKitty).
1st · 2:43SEA +12% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 40 for -9 yards (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), RECOVERED by SEA-52-D.Taylor at LAC 40. 52-D.Taylor to LAC 19 for 21 yards (10-J.Herbert).
4th · 14:20SEA +12% win prob(14:20) 9-K.Walker left guard tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (69-S.Joseph, 42-T.Reeder).
1st · 7:35LAC +11% win prob(7:35) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-M.Goodwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquise Goodwin's 20-yard touchdown catch with 7:35 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Seahawks ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.24Chargers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Seahawks: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.16Chargers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.64Chargers: −0.64 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Chargers’s 69 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Chargers 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 80.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 42.3%, is past their previous low of 51.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Chargers13.3%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.3%, 17.6 points below their season mean of 59.9% and 1.6 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (26-A.Samuel) at LAC 43. 9-K.Murray to SEA 41 for 16 yards (89-W.Dissly).
Q1 13:29 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -6.58 EP · −15.3% win probability
173 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 77 yards from the SEA 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
733
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.2780%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.0842%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.2870%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12+0.6217%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3960%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to midfield
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 32
Seahawks6Chargers0
Seahawks7Chargers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Chargers 16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 43
Seahawks13Chargers0
Seahawks14Chargers0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 12
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 49
Seahawks17Chargers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 47
2nd quarter50 plays
Seahawks17Chargers6
Seahawks17Chargers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Seahawks 7
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 37
Seahawks17Chargers13
Seahawks17Chargers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 13
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Chargers 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Seahawks23Chargers14
Seahawks24Chargers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Chargers 23
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Seahawks 47
Seahawks27Chargers14
Field goal20 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Chargers 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 29
4th quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Seahawks27Chargers16
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 33
Seahawks30Chargers16
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Chargers 32
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Seahawks 30
Seahawks36Chargers16
Seahawks37Chargers16
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks37Chargers22
Seahawks37Chargers23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Chargers 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -5.5
Closing total
51.5
Seahawks moneyline
+193
Chargers moneyline
-219
Chargers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 60 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Chargers 6 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Brandon Staley
2nd · 12:06SEA +10% win prob(12:06) 7-G.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 30, RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at SEA 33. 52-K.Mack to SEA 33 for no gain (1-D.Eskridge). SEA-1-D.Eskridge was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:34LAC +10% win prob(:34) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
