For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 7
It turned at Q3 3:55, 2nd and 10, on D'Onta Foreman — 15.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 21–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:55, Panthers +15.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:55 · 2nd and 10
D'Onta Foreman
Panthers
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 25.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D.J. Moore's 20-yard touchdown catch with 0:35 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Panthers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 1, Panthers 3.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers11.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 4.2 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 66 snaps
Panthers-8.6 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 100%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers74.5%inside their normal wobble · +10.6 vs their 64.0%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 51 early downs
Panthers42.1%right on their number · −7.6 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers19.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Panthers26.1%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers50.0%right on their number · +8.0 vs their 42.0%, and they swing ±21.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −24.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 56%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers30.4%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 32.9%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers21.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers13.0%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
CAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 8.3 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.1 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
32/49, 290 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.4 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
16/22, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.3 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tommy Tremble banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +3.4 | 100% | 100% | 48% | 51% | 1 car, -3 yd · 7/10, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | −7.6 | 88% | 90% | 31% | 60% | 9/15, 96 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 16.5 | +7.1 | 54% | 52% | 10% | 0% | 15 car, 118 yd · 2/2, 27 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 15.3 | +6.4 | 46% | 52% | 14% | 1% | 9 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 10 yd |
| P.J. WalkerQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | +7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 177 yd, 2 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 11.7 | −4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/49, 290 yd · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.5 | −7.9 | 94% | 92% | 27% | 19% | 1 car, 2 yd · 7/13, 43 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +7.5 | 81% | 78% | 10% | 10% | 4/5, 64 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +7.5 | 64% | 74% | 5% | 17% | 1/1, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell GageWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +0.1 | 61% | 65% | 10% | 8% | 4/5, 39 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +0.8 | 86% | 96% | 14% | 36% | 2/3, 31 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB | 4.6 | −3.1 | 60% | 59% | 6% | 0% | 8 car, 19 yd · 2/3, 7 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 4.2 | −2.2 | 43% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 6 car, 24 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.0 | 27% | 20% | 2% | 3% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | 0.0 | 12% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 12% | 14% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 62% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 50% | 52% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Raheem BlackshearRB | -0.5 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q3 3:55 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at CAR 23 · gained 60 · +4.74 EP · +10.0% win probability
146 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Panthers6Buccaneers0Panthers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Buccaneers0Panthers13Buccaneers0Panthers14Buccaneers3Panthers14Buccaneers3Panthers20Buccaneers3Panthers21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/49 | 290 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.2 |
| Chris Godwin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 15 | 96 | 0 | 31% | +0.7 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Walker | 16/22 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_07_TB_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 24 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +1.2 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 27% | −4.4 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +4.1 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2% | +1.1 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −2.6 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Devin White | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deadrin Senat | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 15 | 118 | 7.9 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 1 | +4.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 7 | 10 | 69 | 1 | 48% | +2.5 |
| Terrace Marshall | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 5% | +4.5 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −3.2 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Jackson | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Chandler | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
