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2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay3
BY 18final margin
PanthersCarolina21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 at Carolina Panthers 21. Final.
Buccaneers -13 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 7
Carolina Panthers 21, Buccaneers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:55, 2nd and 10, on D'Onta Foreman — 15.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:55 · 2nd and 10
D'Onta Foreman
Panthers
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
U 39.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 21–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:55, Panthers +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. MoorePanthersQ2 0:35(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.4pts
Leonard FournettePanthersQ3 6:24(6:24) 7-L.Fournette right end to CAR 25 for no gain (24-C.Henderson, 55-C.Littleton). CAR-24-C.Henderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
13.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.15 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 25.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers148 of 152 plays carry both curves
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Swing +15.4 for PanthersExpected points +4.74 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 25 points higher than the market did.play 103
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:55CAR +15% win prob(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
3rd · 6:24TB +13% win prob(6:24) 7-L.Fournette right end to CAR 25 for no gain (24-C.Henderson, 55-C.Littleton). CAR-24-C.Henderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 0:35CAR +10% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:15CAR +10% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:23CAR +9% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage to CAR 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Jackson). CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
3rd · 14:10TB +9% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 30-C.Hubbard (22-K.Neal).
2nd · 4:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.J. Moore's 20-yard touchdown catch with 0:35 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Panthers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Buccaneers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.14Panthers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Buccaneers: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.23Panthers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.48Buccaneers: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.06Panthers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 1, Panthers 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Panthers5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 8.3 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.1 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%67 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap99%66 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time94%63 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time81%54 snaps
67Luke GoedekeG · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
17Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation61%41 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Heavy rotation60%40 snaps
29Rachaad WhiteRB · Rotational43%29 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Rotational30%20 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Rotational27%18 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Situational15%10 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational12%8 snaps
8Kyle RudolphTE · Situational12%8 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational6%4 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Sean Murphy-BuntingCBCarlton DavisCBAkiem HicksDTKyle TraskQBFred JohnsonTCameron BrateTEJulio JonesWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Foreman right+10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q3 3:55 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at CAR 23 · gained 60 · +4.74 EP · +10.0% win probability
146 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, manual charting on 137. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
665
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2477%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5848%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1653%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1658%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.8960%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.170%
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 19
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Panthers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Panthers 42
2nd quarter38 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Buccaneers 29
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers0Panthers6
Buccaneers0Panthers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Buccaneers 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 43
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 23
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Panthers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers0Panthers13
Buccaneers0Panthers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Buccaneers 17
The period ended11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 18
4th quarter36 plays
Buccaneers3Panthers14
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 8
Buccaneers3Panthers20
Buccaneers3Panthers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Panthers 23
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Buccaneers 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Buccaneers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
