2022 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 23, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina PanthersWinner

TB -13 upsetU 39.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 21–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:55, CAR +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:55TB 0 — CAR 7CAR ball · 2nd & 10CAR 53%

(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:55CAR +15% win prob(3:55) 33-D.Foreman right tackle to TB 17 for 60 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q3 · 6:24TB +13% win prob(6:24) 7-L.Fournette right end to CAR 25 for no gain (24-C.Henderson, 55-C.Littleton). CAR-24-C.Henderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q2 · 0:35CAR +10% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 3:15CAR +10% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 0:35CAR Touchdown
(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — CAR 7
Q3 · 3:15CAR Touchdown
(3:15) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — CAR 14
Q4 · 13:41TB Field goal
(13:41) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 3 — CAR 14
Q4 · 9:39CAR Touchdown
(9:39) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep right to 82-T.Tremble for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 3 — CAR 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Panthers
Offensive plays	66	50
Total yards	322	343 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	38%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	2/12	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

32/49, 290 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.4 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

P.J. WalkerQB

16/22, 177 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

D'Onta ForemanRB

15 att, 118 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

9 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

9/15 for 96 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

7/10 for 69 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	7	10	2:15	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 10	4	9	1:46	Punt
3	TB	TB 27	8	33	4:14	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 20	4	9	2:25	Punt
5	TB	TB 22	8	36	4:32	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 10	12	54	7:00	Punt
7	TB	TB 20	9	18	4:32	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 20	7	80	2:47	Touchdown +7
9	TB	TB 23	5	30	0:29	End of half
10	CAR	CAR 25	5	6	1:07	Punt
11	TB	TB 28	6	20	2:17	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 20	4	2	1:54	Punt
13	TB	TB 30	7	45	3:23	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 25	4	7	1:18	Punt
15	TB	TB 17	4	7	1:01	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 23	4	77	0:49	Touchdown +7
17	TB	TB 25	15	72	4:33	Field goal +3
18	CAR	CAR 25	9	75	4:05	Touchdown +7
19	TB	TB 34	6	43	2:18	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 28	9	24	6:13	Punt
21	TB	TB 13	2	8	1:02	End of game

4 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	32/49	290	0	0	1	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	6	24	4.0	-0.7
Leonard Fournette	8	19	2.4	-6.2
Chris Godwin	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Tom Brady	1	1	1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	9	15	96	31%	0.7
Cade Otton	4	5	64	10%	1.2
Chris Godwin	7	13	43	27%	-4.4
Russell Gage	4	5	39	10%	4.1
Ko Kieft	1	1	18	2%	1.1
Rachaad White	1	2	8	4%	0.2
Kyle Rudolph	1	1	8	2%	0.4
Leonard Fournette	2	3	7	6%	-2.6
Scott Miller	2	2	6	4%	-0.2
Jaelon Darden	1	1	1	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	4	3	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	4	2	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	3	1.0	0
Devin White	1	4	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	3	1	0.0	1
Deadrin Senat	3	1	0.0	0
Zyon McCollum	3	1	0.0	0
William Gholston	2	1	0.0	0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	1	2	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	1	1	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	16/22	177	2	0	1	5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	15	118	7.9	0	0.9
Chuba Hubbard	9	63	7.0	1	4.1
D.J. Moore	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.3
Raheem Blackshear	2	-5	-2.5	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	7	10	69	1	48%	2.5
Terrace Marshall	2	3	31	0	14%	2.6
Tommy Tremble	1	1	29	1	5%	4.5
D'Onta Foreman	2	2	27	0	10%	1.8
Chuba Hubbard	2	3	10	0	14%	-3.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	8	0	5%	0.5
Ian Thomas	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Donte Jackson	9	0	0.0
Myles Hartsfield	5	2	0.0
Shaq Thompson	4	2	0.0
Brian Burns	2	2	1.0
Frankie Luvu	1	3	0.0
Derrick Brown	3	1	0.0
C.J. Henderson	2	1	0.0
Damien Wilson	1	2	0.0
Marquis Haynes	2	0	0.0
Sean Chandler	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -13
Closing total: 39.5
TB moneyline: -680
CAR moneyline: +524

Buccaneers closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 24 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: TB 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Steve Wilks

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.