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2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona26
BY 8final margin
VikingsMinnesota34
Arizona Cardinals 26 at Minnesota Vikings 34. Final.
Vikings -4 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 8
Minnesota Vikings 34, Cardinals 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:46, 4th and 4 — 16.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:46 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
(10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.
Dome
Vikings closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Minnesota Vikings 34–26. Biggest swing: Q4 10:46, Vikings +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsCardinalsQ3 1:06(1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at MIN 24, RECOVERED by ARI-9-I.Simmons at MIN 24.
15.4pts
Camryn BynumVikingsQ4 6:55(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 24. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 36 for 12 yards (10-D.Hopkins, 85-T.McBride). Penalty on MIN-54-E.Kendricks, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on ARI-26-E.Benjamin, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
10.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Cardinals185 of 197 plays carry both curves
(10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.
Swing +16.7 for VikingsExpected points +4.99 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:46MIN +17% win prob(10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.
3rd · 1:06ARI +15% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 22 for -8 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), touched at MIN 24, RECOVERED by ARI-9-I.Simmons at MIN 24.
4th · 6:55ARI +11% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 24. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 36 for 12 yards (10-D.Hopkins, 85-T.McBride). Penalty on MIN-54-E.Kendricks, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on ARI-26-E.Benjamin, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
3rd · 2:37MIN +11% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:13ARI +10% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen.
3rd · 9:35MIN +10% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at MIN 8 for 33 yards (22-H.Smith).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alexander Mattison's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 5:51 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th12:35Matt Prater·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+326–28
4th8:41K.J. Osborn·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousinsfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, hit left upright+626–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryVikings
Cardinals1–8Vikings
375Total yards381
5.4Yards per play5.6
44%Success rate50%
36%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns5
4Explosive plays9
23First downs22
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Vikings: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Cardinals: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 70 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Vikings’s 68 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 50.0% in week 7 against 71.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.8% in week 7 against 23.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Vikings11.5%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.9%, 10.5 points above their season mean of 61.5% and 1.2 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wright punts+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:46) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-45-T.Dye at ARI 25.
Q4 10:46 · Vikings · 4th & 4 at MIN 31 · gained nothing · +4.99 EP · +16.6% win probability
183 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 83 yards from the MIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
45%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1170%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0163%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.7862%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1743%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0433%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Cardinals0Vikings6
Cardinals0Vikings7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 17
Cardinals3Vikings7
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 26
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Vikings 41
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
Cardinals3Vikings13
Cardinals3Vikings14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Cardinals 1
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 49
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 4 to the Vikings 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cardinals9Vikings14
Cardinals10Vikings14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Vikings 6
The period ended11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 38
3rd quarter48 plays
Punt8 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cardinals16Vikings14
Cardinals17Vikings14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Vikings 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cardinals17Vikings20
Cardinals17Vikings21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 7
Intercepted2 plays
Cardinals17Vikings27
Cardinals17Vikings28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals23Vikings28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Vikings 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Vikings 19
4th quarter54 plays
Cardinals26Vikings28
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 11
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Cardinals26Vikings34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 5
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 44
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 40
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Vikings 44
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Vikings 48
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Vikings 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
