For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Ravens179 of 190 plays carry both curves
(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.
Swing −19.2 for BuccaneersExpected points −6.50 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 4 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:47TB +19% win prob(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.
4th · 14:20TB +17% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to BAL 13 for 51 yards (26-G.Stone).
1st · 9:03TB +10% win prob(9:03) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at BAL 8 for 44 yards (26-G.Stone).
3rd · 1:32TB +10% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 10-D.Robinson pushed ob at TB 13 for 15 yards (32-M.Edwards).
3rd · 4:56TB +9% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to TB 40 for 17 yards (90-L.Hall; 22-K.Neal).
3rd · 0:11TB +8% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaiah Likely's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:11 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:06Justin Tucker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–0
4th4:57Ryan Succop·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+324–16
4th2:16Justin Tucker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+327–16
4th0:53Julio Jones·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+627–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Ravens7–0Buccaneers
455Total yards349
6.4Yards per play5.6
52%Success rate45%
46%Third-down rate31%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays5
27First downs18
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.07Buccaneers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Ravens: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 71 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 62 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Buccaneers 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.7% in week 2.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 7.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −19.7 pts in week 7 against +2.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.1% in week 7 against 57.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Buccaneers7.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.4%, 20.1 points below their season mean of 26.5% and 1.9 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Stout punts+22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.
Q1 12:47 · Ravens · 4th & 9 at BAL 44 · gained nothing · +6.50 EP · +21.9% win probability
177 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 83 yards from the BAL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0977%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0165%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.3344%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+0.4138%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3289%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1378%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 48
Ravens3Buccaneers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 4
Ravens3Buccaneers6
Ravens3Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 1
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
Ravens3Buccaneers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Ravens 11
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Ravens 49
Punt14 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 16
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Buccaneers 9
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to midfield
No good8 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Buccaneers 43
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
Ravens9Buccaneers10
Ravens10Buccaneers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Buccaneers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 47
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Ravens16Buccaneers10
Ravens17Buccaneers10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter60 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens17Buccaneers13
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Ravens 12
Ravens23Buccaneers13
Ravens24Buccaneers13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Buccaneers 15
Ravens24Buccaneers16
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 3
Ravens27Buccaneers16
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Buccaneers 12
Ravens27Buccaneers22
Touchdown17 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Ravens 8
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -2
Closing total
46
Ravens moneyline
+116
Buccaneers moneyline
-128
Buccaneers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the west; 0.02 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Ravens 4 days · Buccaneers 4 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Todd Bowles
TB +8% win prob
(5:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 10-S.Miller. PENALTY on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 40 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play.
2nd · 0:56TB +6% win prob(:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to BAL 6, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 13 for 7 yards (29-R.White).
