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2022 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 27, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22

TB -2 upsetO 46 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 27–22. Biggest swing: Q1 12:47, TB +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑BAL ↓
Q1 · 12:47BAL 0 — TB 0BAL ball · 4th & 9TB 59%

(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:47TB +19% win prob(12:47) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to TB 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 30-D.Delaney MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at TB 6.
  2. Q4 · 14:20TB +17% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to BAL 13 for 51 yards (26-G.Stone).
  3. Q1 · 9:03TB +10% win prob(9:03) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at BAL 8 for 44 yards (26-G.Stone).
  4. Q3 · 1:32TB +10% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 10-D.Robinson pushed ob at TB 13 for 15 yards (32-M.Edwards).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:06BAL Field goal

    (11:06) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — TB 0
  2. Q1 · 6:58TB Touchdown

    (6:58) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — TB 7
  3. Q1 · 0:30TB Field goal

    (:30) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — TB 10
  4. Q3 · 9:10BAL Touchdown

    (9:10) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 17-K.Drake for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — TB 10
  5. Q3 · 0:11BAL Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — TB 10
  6. Q4 · 12:30TB Field goal

    (12:30) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — TB 13
  7. Q4 · 7:00BAL Touchdown

    (7:00) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — TB 13
  8. Q4 · 4:57TB Field goal

    (4:57) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — TB 16
  9. Q4 · 2:16BAL Field goal

    (2:16) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — TB 16
  10. Q4 · 0:53TB Touchdown

    (:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 6-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-4-J.Pierre-Paul, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — TB 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBuccaneers
Offensive plays7162
Total yards455 (edge)349
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)0.07
Success rate52% (edge)45%
Dropback rate59%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.030.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)-0.01
Third downs6/13 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)18
Sacks taken33
Turnovers00

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

26/44, 325 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

27/38, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

11 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Kenyan DrakeRB

7 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/11 for 123 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

6/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 216232:23Punt
2BALTB 6421:34Field goal +3
3TBTB 2510704:07Touchdown +7
4BALBAL 25531:49Punt
5TBTB 3710504:41Field goal +3
6BALBAL 255-121:14Punt
7TBTB 45461:28Punt
8BALBAL 613606:57Punt
9TBTB 14420:59Punt
10BALBAL 409512:53Turnover on downs
11TBTB 107241:09Punt
12BALBAL 136290:46Missed field goal
13TBTB 25541:02Punt
14BALBAL 2310774:53Touchdown +7
15TBTB 256282:08Punt
16BALBAL 2012806:52Touchdown +7
17TBTB 259632:39Field goal +3
18BALBAL 1711935:31Touchdown +7
19TBTB 2510422:01Field goal +3
20BALBAL 396492:42Field goal +3
21TBTB 2513601:23Touchdown +6
22BALTB 46300:49End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 93 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson27/382382030.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards11655.901.7
Kenyan Drake7628.901.1
Lamar Jackson9434.80-0.5
Devin Duvernay23316.513.7
Justice Hill4287.001.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely6777121%6.1
Demarcus Robinson6864024%2.5
Mark Andrews3533015%-1.2
Devin Duvernay4431012%2.2
James Proche3424012%-1.1
Kenyan Drake445112%-0.7
Josh Oliver11403%-0.0
Rashod Bateman01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Damarion Williams140.000
Geno Stone400.001
Patrick Queen400.000
Brandon Stephens400.000
A.J. Klein310.000
Broderick Washington120.002
Nnamdi Madubuike121.000
Kyle Hamilton210.001
Devon Kennard300.000
Marcus Peters300.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady26/443251034.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Leonard Fournette9242.710.7
Rachaad White4194.80-0.2
Tom Brady111.00-1.0
Julio Jones100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans611123026%3.9
Chris Godwin61175026%-0.3
Leonard Fournette333407%1.5
Rachaad White332407%0.9
Julio Jones2421110%3.1
Cade Otton2515012%-0.3
Scott Miller221305%0.4
Breshad Perriman111102%0.5
Ko Kieft11902%0.8
Kyle Rudolph01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Mike Edwards830.000
Devin White340.000
Keanu Neal340.000
Jamel Dean510.001
William Gholston420.000
Zyon McCollum410.001
Lavonte David410.001
Vita Vea401.000
Shaquil Barrett311.000
Joe Tryon211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -2
Closing total
46
BAL moneyline
+116
TB moneyline
-128

Buccaneers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 49 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
BAL 4 days · TB 4 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Todd Bowles