For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 34 at Atlanta Falcons 37. Final.
Falcons -4.5 no coverO 41 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 8
Atlanta Falcons 37, Panthers 34 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:23, 1st and 10, on D.J. Moore — 59.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:23 · 1st and 10
D.J. Moore
Panthers
(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Dome
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, Panthers +59.2% win probability on one snap.
59.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.J. HendersonPanthersOT 7:58(7:58) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Henderson [99-M.Ioannidis] at CAR 26. 24-C.Henderson pushed ob at ATL 20 for 54 yards (40-K.Smith).
42.5pts
Eddy PineiroFalconsOT 5:59(5:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
37.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 13 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Panthers189 of 204 plays carry both curves
(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing −59.2 for FalconsExpected points −6.54 for FalconsThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:23ATL +59% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Overtime · 7:58CAR +43% win prob(7:58) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Henderson [99-M.Ioannidis] at CAR 26. 24-C.Henderson pushed ob at ATL 20 for 54 yards (40-K.Smith).
Overtime · 5:59CAR +38% win prob(5:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
4th · 2:26ATL +37% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 14-D.Byrd for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 3:28ATL +35% win prob(3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota left tackle pushed ob at CAR 24 for 30 yards (38-M.Hartsfield).
4th · 0:12CAR +32% win prob4-E.Pineiro extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 41-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:54Eddy Pineiro·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+33–0
2nd10:18Kyle Pitts·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota+73–7
Overtime2:00Younghoe Koo·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+334–37
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers7–2Falcons
480Total yards407
6.5Yards per play6.2
45%Success rate45%
38%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays8
23First downs21
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Panthers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Panthers: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Panthers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 74 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Falcons’s 66 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Falcons 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's blitz rate sent, 51.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 35.3% in week 6.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 7.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 21.1% in week 7 against 48.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.9% in week 7 against 22.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.6 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 51.6%, 21.7 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 2.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Walker pass+56% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 0:23 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 38 · gained 62 · +6.54 EP · +56.1% win probability
187 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
886
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.1053%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3747%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1638%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.5640%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4778%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.530%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5040%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 26
Panthers3Falcons0
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Falcons 19
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 42
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 24
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Panthers3Falcons6
Panthers3Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Panthers 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Panthers9Falcons7
Panthers10Falcons7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 32
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Panthers10Falcons13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 37
Panthers10Falcons14
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 38
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Panthers13Falcons14
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 24
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 29
Panthers13Falcons20
Panthers13Falcons21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Panthers 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Panthers19Falcons21
Panthers21Falcons21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers21Falcons24
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Panthers 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers27Falcons24
Panthers28Falcons24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Falcons 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Panthers28Falcons30
Panthers28Falcons31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Panthers28Falcons34
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
Panthers34Falcons34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 38
The period ended4 plays
Overtime22 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 14
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Panthers34Falcons37
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Panthers 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -4.5
Closing total
41
Panthers moneyline
+178
Falcons moneyline
-201
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 71 — over by 30.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Arthur Smith
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:51CAR +28% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass short middle intended for 33-D.Foreman INTERCEPTED by 9-L.Carter at CAR 28. 9-L.Carter for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:07ATL +25% win prob(4:07) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass short left to 88-T.Marshall to ATL 11 for 39 yards (22-C.Armstrong).
