2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Carolina Panthers
34
Atlanta FalconsWinner
37
Atlanta Falcons 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:23, ATL +59% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:23ATL +59% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
- OT · 7:58CAR +43% win prob(7:58) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Henderson [99-M.Ioannidis] at CAR 26. 24-C.Henderson pushed ob at ATL 20 for 54 yards (40-K.Smith).
- OT · 5:59CAR +38% win prob(5:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
- Q4 · 2:26ATL +37% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 14-D.Byrd for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 6:54CAR Field goal
(6:54) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ATL 0 - Q2 · 10:18ATL Touchdown
(10:18) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — ATL 7 - Q2 · 4:56CAR Touchdown
(4:56) (Shotgun) 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 7 - Q2 · 0:51ATL Touchdown
(:51) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass short middle intended for 33-D.Foreman INTERCEPTED by 9-L.Carter at CAR 28. 9-L.Carter for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 14 - Q3 · 11:38CAR Field goal
(11:38) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: CAR 13 — ATL 14 - Q3 · 1:51ATL Touchdown
(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 13 — ATL 21 - Q4 · 11:50CAR Touchdown
(11:50) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 33-D.Foreman left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CAR 21 — ATL 21 - Q4 · 7:38ATL Field goal
(7:38) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: CAR 21 — ATL 24 - Q4 · 3:12CAR Touchdown
(3:12) 33-D.Foreman left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 28 — ATL 24 - Q4 · 2:26ATL Touchdown
(2:26) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 14-D.Byrd for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 28 — ATL 31 - Q4 · 0:40ATL Field goal
(:40) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: CAR 28 — ATL 34 - Q4 · 0:23CAR Touchdown
(:23) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-2-D.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: CAR 34 — ATL 34 - OT · 2:00ATL Field goal
(2:00) 7-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: CAR 34 — ATL 37
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Panthers | Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 66 |
| Total yards | 480 (edge) | 407 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 (edge) | 6.2 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.09 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Success rate | 45% | 45% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 47% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 | 0.20 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 (edge) | -0.11 |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 6/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 21 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · CAR
19/36, 317 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
20/28, 253 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
6.2 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/9 for 87 yds, 0 TD
25% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | ATL 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:14 | Interception | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 20 | 6 | 9 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 3 | ATL | ATL 12 | 5 | 0 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 4 | CAR | ATL 37 | 6 | 18 | 2:33 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | ATL | ATL 8 | 9 | 33 | 4:36 | Punt | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 19 | 4 | 5 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 7 | ATL | ATL 31 | 11 | 74 | 6:02 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 25 | 14 | 79 | 5:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | ATL | ATL 14 | 7 | 17 | 3:10 | Punt | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 10 | 4 | 27 | 1:00 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 33 | 0:41 | End of half | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 25 | 10 | 51 | 3:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | ATL | ATL 25 | 5 | -2 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 14 | CAR | CAR 17 | 6 | 27 | 3:01 | Punt | |
| 15 | ATL | ATL 38 | 9 | 62 | 4:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 25 | 12 | 77 | 4:54 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 17 | ATL | ATL 20 | 9 | 68 | 4:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 18 | CAR | CAR 40 | 9 | 80 | 4:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | ATL | ATL 25 | 6 | 80 | 0:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | -7 | 0:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | ATL | CAR 18 | 4 | 7 | 1:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 22 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 75 | 0:24 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 23 | ATL | ATL 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | ATL | ATL 14 | 6 | 13 | 2:16 | Interception | |
| 25 | CAR | ATL 20 | 4 | 6 | 1:50 | Missed field goal | |
| 26 | ATL | ATL 22 | 8 | 55 | 3:59 | Field goal +3 |
12 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Carolina Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Walker | 19/36 | 317 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 26 | 118 | 4.5 | 3 | 7.7 |
| Spencer Brown | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | -0.1 |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -1.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 11 | 152 | 1 | 31% | 9.6 |
| Terrace Marshall | 4 | 9 | 87 | 0 | 25% | 1.8 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 6% | 2.7 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 17% | -1.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 11% | -1.0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -8.2 |
| Spencer Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Frankie Luvu | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Juston Burris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Atlanta Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/28 | 253 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Huntley | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 | -5.5 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 | 32% | 3.2 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 6 | 67 | 1 | 21% | -1.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 | 11% | 2.9 |
| Drake London | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 18% | 2.3 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | 1.0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 0.9 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | 0.5 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 0.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Evans | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Marlowe | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cornell Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ATL -4.5
- Closing total
- 41
- CAR moneyline
- +178
- ATL moneyline
- -201
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41; the game landed 71 — over by 30.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- CAR 7 days · ATL 7 days
- Coaches
- Steve Wilks vs Arthur Smith
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.