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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Dallas Cowboys 49, Bears 29 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 9:48, 1st and 10, on Khalil Herbert — 6.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Cowboys closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Dallas Cowboys 49–29 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 9:48, Bears +6.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:48 · 1st and 10
Khalil Herbert
Bears
(9:48) 24-K.Herbert up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tony PollardBearsQ1 13:27(13:27) (No Huddle) 20-T.Pollard right end to DAL 46 for -5 yards (53-N.Morrow).
4.9pts
Michael GallupCowboysQ1 12:50(12:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup to CHI 43 for 11 yards (22-K.Vildor).
5.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 9 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 6 of 15 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Bears171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(9:48) 24-K.Herbert up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.2 for CowboysExpected points −1.80 for CowboysThe model had Bears 12 points higher than the market did.play 111
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:48DAL +6% win prob(9:48) 24-K.Herbert up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:50DAL +5% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup to CHI 43 for 11 yards (22-K.Vildor).
1st · 13:27CHI +5% win prob(13:27) (No Huddle) 20-T.Pollard right end to DAL 46 for -5 yards (53-N.Morrow).
1st · 12:21CHI +5% win prob(12:21) PENALTY on DAL, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 43 - No Play.
3rd · 9:06DAL +4% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz to CHI 44 for 30 yards (9-J.Brisker). Penalty on CHI-91-D.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 0:40CHI +4% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Jackson at DAL 45. 4-E.Jackson to DAL 24 for 21 yards (89-P.Hendershot).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dak Prescott's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 10:23 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:23Dak Prescott·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st5:24CeeDee Lamb·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–14
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.45Cowboys: +0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Bears: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.53Cowboys: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Bears: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.36Cowboys: +0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 73 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 55 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
CHI's play-action rate, 38.7%, is past their previous high of 36.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 9 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Cowboys15.2%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -28.8 pts, 14.9 points below their season mean of -13.9 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz to CHI 44 for 30 yards (9-J.Brisker). Penalty on CHI-91-D.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q3 9:06 · Cowboys · 3rd & 9 at DAL 26 · gained 30 · +3.20 EP · +9.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 79 yards from the DAL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
44%
Yards
813
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0442%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.3163%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1040%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.4931%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.6922%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.7044%
Cowboys0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR6+0.4283%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+1.4940%
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Bears0Cowboys6
Bears0Cowboys7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bears 7
Punt6 plays
Bears0Cowboys13
Bears0Cowboys14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Bears 21
The period ended11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Cowboys 14
2nd quarter56 plays
Bears6Cowboys14
Bears7Cowboys14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 3
Bears7Cowboys20
Bears7Cowboys21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bears 18
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Bears7Cowboys27
Bears7Cowboys28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Bears 1
Bears13Cowboys28
Bears14Cowboys28
Touchdown20 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Cowboys 17
Intercepted2 plays
Bears17Cowboys28
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 18
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 32
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Cowboys 12
Bears23Cowboys28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Cowboys 12
Bears23Cowboys34
Bears23Cowboys35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Bears 7
Bears23Cowboys41
Touchdown5 plays
Bears23Cowboys42
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Cowboys 30
4th quarter43 plays
Bears29Cowboys42
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 10
Bears29Cowboys48
Bears29Cowboys49
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 46
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Cowboys 16
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 23
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
