2022 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 31, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CIN -3 upset45 pushBengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:51, CIN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:51CIN 0 — CLE 0CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 69%

(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:51CIN +13% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
Q2 · 3:34CIN +13% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at 50 for -5 yards (44-S.Takitaki). FUMBLES (44-S.Takitaki), touched at 50, RECOVERED by CLE-93-T.Togiai at CIN 47.
Q2 · 1:56CIN +12% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CIN 47 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-S.Hubbard and 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [24-V.Bell], RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at CIN 46. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to CIN 49 for 3 yards (84-P.Brown).
Q1 · 1:38CIN +10% win prob(1:38) 2-A.Cooper pass deep right intended for 12-M.Woods INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell [55-L.Wilson] at CIN 38. 24-V.Bell ran ob at CIN 48 for 10 yards. Handoff to 24-N.Chubb pitch to 2-A.Cooper

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 5:07CLE Touchdown
(5:07) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 24-N.Chubb. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 8
Q2 · 0:04CLE Field goal
(:04) 3-C.York 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 11
Q3 · 9:05CLE Touchdown
(9:05) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 18
Q3 · 3:14CLE Touchdown
(3:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 2-A.Cooper for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 0 — CLE 25
Q4 · 14:22CIN Touchdown
(14:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 6 — CLE 25
Q4 · 8:51CLE Touchdown
(8:51) 68-M.Dunn and 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 6 — CLE 32
Q4 · 6:48CIN Touchdown
(6:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 85-T.Higgins for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 13 — CLE 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	50	67
Total yards	229	443 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	44%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	37%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Jacoby BrissettQB

17/22, 278 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +25.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/35, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-9.2 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

23 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

5/7 for 131 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

4/4 for 81 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 14	10	54	4:13	Interception
2	CLE	CLE 16	7	59	4:37	Missed field goal
3	CIN	CIN 43	7	3	4:02	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 31	2	13	0:38	Interception
5	CIN	CIN 48	4	6	1:36	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 13	6	15	2:34	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 30	4	8	1:31	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 22	11	80	5:45	Touchdown +8
9	CIN	CIN 28	4	6	1:39	Fumble
10	CLE	CIN 47	4	6	1:36	Fumble
11	CIN	CIN 49	6	23	1:09	Missed field goal
12	CLE	CLE 37	6	26	0:40	Field goal +3
13	CLE	CLE 25	13	75	6:03	Touchdown +7
14	CIN	CIN 25	5	-5	1:30	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 40	9	60	4:17	Touchdown +7
16	CIN	CIN 27	11	68	3:55	Touchdown +6
17	CLE	CLE 17	10	83	5:29	Touchdown +7
18	CIN	CIN 25	7	60	2:06	Touchdown +7
19	CLE	CIN 45	5	5	1:03	Punt
20	CIN	CIN 30	4	6	1:34	Turnover on downs
21	CLE	CIN 36	7	21	4:03	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/35	232	2	1	5	-9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	8	27	3.4	-0.6
Samaje Perine	1	7	7.0	0.7
Joe Burrow	1	2	2.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	3	6	49	1	18%	-3.2
Hayden Hurst	4	4	42	0	12%	5.0
Tyler Boyd	3	5	38	1	15%	3.2
Joe Mixon	7	9	32	0	26%	-2.1
Trenton Irwin	2	3	27	0	9%	1.3
Chris Evans	1	1	26	0	3%	2.8
Samaje Perine	3	3	10	0	9%	-2.1
Trent Taylor	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Mitchell Wilcox	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.6
Mike Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	3	6	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	4	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	6	1.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	4	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Carter	2	3	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	4	0.5	0	0
Vonn Bell	3	1	0.5	1	1
B.J. Hill	3	1	0.0	0	0
Joseph Ossai	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	17/22	278	1	0	2	13.9
Amari Cooper	0/1	0	0	1	0	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	23	101	4.4	2	3.9
Kareem Hunt	11	42	3.8	0	-0.6
D'Ernest Johnson	4	17	4.3	0	-0.1
Jacoby Brissett	6	12	2.0	1	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	5	7	131	1	35%	10.7
Donovan Peoples-Jones	4	4	81	0	20%	6.7
Kareem Hunt	4	4	30	0	20%	-0.1
David Bell	2	2	27	0	10%	1.4
Mike Woods	1	2	6	0	10%	-4.2
Nick Chubb	1	1	3	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Sione Takitaki	6	7	1.0	0
Martin Emerson	4	3	0.0	2
Deion Jones	3	2	1.0	0
Grant Delpit	2	2	0.0	0
Jordan Kunaszyk	1	2	0.0	0
Greg Newsome	3	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Thomas	1	2	1.0	1
Taven Bryan	0	3	0.5	0
Jadeveon Clowney	1	1	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	1	1	1.5	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 45
CIN moneyline: -163
CLE moneyline: +147

Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CIN 8 days · CLE 8 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.