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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 13 at Cleveland Browns 32. Final.
Bengals -3 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 8
Cleveland Browns 32, Bengals 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:51, 1st and 10, on A.J. Green — 13.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:51 · 1st and 10
A.J. Green
Browns
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
45 push
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:51, Browns +13.1% win probability on one snap.
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowBrownsQ2 3:34(3:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at 50 for -5 yards (44-S.Takitaki). FUMBLES (44-S.Takitaki), touched at 50, RECOVERED by CLE-93-T.Togiai at CIN 47.
12.5pts
Jacoby BrissettBengalsQ2 1:56(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CIN 47 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-S.Hubbard and 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [24-V.Bell], RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at CIN 46. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to CIN 49 for 3 yards (84-P.Brown).
12.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
Swing +13.1 for BrownsExpected points +4.87 for BrownsThe model had Browns 14 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:51CIN +13% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
2nd · 3:34CIN +13% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at 50 for -5 yards (44-S.Takitaki). FUMBLES (44-S.Takitaki), touched at 50, RECOVERED by CLE-93-T.Togiai at CIN 47.
2nd · 1:56CIN +12% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at CIN 47 for -11 yards (sack split by 94-S.Hubbard and 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [24-V.Bell], RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at CIN 46. 59-A.Davis-Gaither to CIN 49 for 3 yards (84-P.Brown).
1st · 1:38CIN +10% win prob(1:38) 2-A.Cooper pass deep right intended for 12-M.Woods INTERCEPTED by 24-V.Bell [55-L.Wilson] at CIN 38. 24-V.Bell ran ob at CIN 48 for 10 yards. Handoff to 24-N.Chubb pitch to 2-A.Cooper
1st · 6:23CIN +10% win prob(6:23) 3-C.York 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-B.Hill), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 0:44CIN +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 5:07 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd5:07Nick Chubb·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+80–8
2nd0:04Cade York·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+30–11
4th6:48Tee Higgins·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+713–32
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals0–8Browns
229Total yards443
4.6Yards per play6.6
44%Success rate57%
40%Third-down rate62%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
3Explosive plays10
12First downs25
5Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Bengals: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.21Browns: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Bengals: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.40Browns: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bengals: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.09Browns: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 76.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 74.4% in week 6.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.3% in week 7 against 40.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 29 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Browns17.5%
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.8 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%53 snaps
64Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%53 snaps
67Cordell VolsonG · Every snap100%53 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%53 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%53 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time98%52 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
88Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Rotational45%24 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational43%23 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational28%15 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational25%13 snaps
11Trent TaylorWR · Situational13%7 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational4%2 snaps
86Devin AsiasiTE · Situational2%1 snap
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Eli AppleCBD'Ante SmithGJackson CarmanGJosh TupouNTTrayveon WilliamsRBJa'Marr ChaseWRStanley MorganWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
Q1 10:51 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CLE 27 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −15.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 83 yards from the CLE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1782%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2445%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1013%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.030%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Browns 27
No good8 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Bengals 34
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Browns 46
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 48 to midfield
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 28
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 38
Bengals0Browns6
Bengals0Browns8
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Bengals 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Browns 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Bengals 31
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Browns 25
Bengals0Browns11
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Bengals 37
3rd quarter37 plays
Bengals0Browns17
Bengals0Browns18
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Bengals0Browns24
Bengals0Browns25
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Bengals 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Browns 24
4th quarter42 plays
Bengals6Browns25
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 13
Bengals6Browns31
Bengals6Browns32
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Bengals 11
Bengals12Browns32
Bengals13Browns32
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 41
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bengals 40
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
