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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 31, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q1 10:51, 1st and 10, on A.J. Green — 13.1 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:51, Browns +13.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:51 · 1st and 10
A.J. Green
Browns
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Chubb's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 5:07 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tyler Boyd13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide right+66–257 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Browns’s 67 at 37%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Browns 5.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 76.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate, 32.1%, is past their previous low of 41.5% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CLE's blitz rate sent, 10.0%, is past their previous low of 18.2% in week 3 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.3% in week 7 against 40.0% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals9.3 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 50 snaps
Browns-14.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -7.4 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Bengals76.9%leaned — passed early · +15.1 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 39 early downs
Browns32.1%leaned — ran early · −18.1 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Bengals12.5%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Browns12.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Bengals33.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±17.5 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 57.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 54%
Tendencies room →Bengals40.0%leaned — sent pressure · +19.3 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Browns10.0%leaned — sat back · −13.7 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Bengals24.0%leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Browns17.5%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
CIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 20.7% and 1.8 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
17/22, 278 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
13.9 expected points added · +25.7% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
25/35, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-9.2 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
4/4 for 81 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nick Chubb banked 10.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick ChubbRB · Committee Back | 25.4 | +10.3 | 51% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 23 car, 101 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +7.5 | 79% | 96% | 35% | 58% | 0/1, 0 yd, 1 INT · 5/7, 131 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | +7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/22, 278 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +4.5 | 98% | 100% | 18% | 44% | 3/6, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 13.5 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/35, 232 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.9 | −3.6 | 72% | 68% | 26% | 0% | 8 car, 27 yd · 7/9, 32 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +4.4 | 96% | 98% | 15% | 28% | 3/5, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 12.1 | +4.9 | 96% | 96% | 20% | 24% | 4/4, 81 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −1.5 | 46% | 73% | 20% | 4% | 11 car, 42 yd · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +2.1 | 72% | 75% | 12% | 15% | 4/4, 42 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 4.7 | 0.0 | 25% | 28% | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.1 | 43% | 43% | 9% | 10% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | +1.8 | 47% | 58% | 10% | 8% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Chris EvansRB | 3.6 | +2.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 1.7 | +0.3 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 4 car, 17 yd |
| Mike WoodsWR | 1.6 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 28% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Mike ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 45% | 48% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 85-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Green (95-M.Garrett) at CLE 16. 38-A.Green to CLE 16 for no gain (80-Mi.Thomas).
Q1 10:51 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CLE 27 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −15.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 83 yards from the CLE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals0
Browns6Bengals0Browns8How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Bengals0Browns11Bengals0Browns17Bengals0Browns18Bengals0Browns24Bengals0Browns25Bengals6Browns25Bengals6Browns31Bengals6Browns32Bengals12Browns32Bengals13Browns32Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/35 | 232 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −9.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Joe Burrow |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 18% | −3.2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/22 | 278 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13.9 |
| Amari Cooper | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_CIN_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| +5.0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 15% | +3.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 26% | −2.1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.3 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 3% | +2.8 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −2.1 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Carter | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| B.J. Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Ossai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 2 | +3.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 7 | 131 | 1 | 35% | +10.7 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 | 20% | +6.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 20% | −0.1 |
| David Bell | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Mike Woods | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −4.2 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sione Takitaki | 6 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Kunaszyk | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Thomas | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taven Bryan | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
