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Denver Broncos 21 at Jacksonville Jaguars 17. Final.
Jaguars -1 upsetU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 8
Denver Broncos 21, Jaguars 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:43, 1st and 10, on K'Waun Williams — 19.1 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:43 · 1st and 10
K'Waun Williams
Broncos
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:43, Broncos +19.1% win probability on one snap.
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian KirkJaguarsQ4 7:06(7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to DEN 22 for 25 yards (2-P.Surtain).
15.2pts
K.J. HamlerBroncosQ4 3:49(3:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to JAX 33 for 47 yards (37-T.Herndon).
18.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Broncos167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Swing −19.1 for JaguarsExpected points −3.80 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 3 points higher than the market did.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:43DEN +19% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
4th · 3:49JAX +18% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to JAX 33 for 47 yards (37-T.Herndon).
4th · 7:06JAX +15% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to DEN 22 for 25 yards (2-P.Surtain).
3rd · 6:24JAX +15% win prob(6:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 80-G.Dulcich to JAX 1 for 38 yards (37-T.Herndon, 2-R.Jenkins).
4th · 2:10JAX +12% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end to JAX 18 for 10 yards (5-A.Cisco).
2nd · 10:48JAX +11% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end pushed ob at DEN 24 for 49 yards (31-J.Simmons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Latavius Murray's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 1:47 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:47Latavius Murray·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryJaguars
Broncos4–4Jaguars
331Total yards305
5.5Yards per play4.7
45%Success rate46%
18%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays7
18First downs18
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.10Jaguars: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Broncos: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.42Jaguars: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Broncos: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.28Jaguars: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 60 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 65 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Jaguars 4.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 38.9% in week 7 against 17.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars20.6%
right on their number · +3.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 18.2% and 1.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Q4 1:43 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at JAX 25 · gained nothing · -3.80 EP · −23.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 98 yards from the DEN 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2164%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2273%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0321%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.0623%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.3113%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.9343%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 26
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 41
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 19
Broncos0Jaguars6
Broncos0Jaguars7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 22
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Broncos 28
2nd quarter56 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 1
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 29
Broncos0Jaguars10
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Broncos 19
Broncos6Jaguars10
Broncos7Jaguars10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jaguars 6
Punt12 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Broncos 38
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Jaguars 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Broncos 41
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Broncos13Jaguars10
Broncos14Jaguars10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 2 to the Jaguars 1
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 45
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 37
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 28
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Broncos 42
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Broncos14Jaguars16
Broncos14Jaguars17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Broncos20Jaguars17
Broncos21Jaguars17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jaguars 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
