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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Wembley Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q4 1:43, 1st and 10, on K'Waun Williams — 19.1 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:43, Broncos +19.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:43 · 1st and 10
K'Waun Williams
Broncos
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Latavius Murray's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 1:47 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryJaguars
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 60 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 65 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Jaguars 4.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 5.9% in week 6 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 8.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 38.9% in week 7 against 17.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-0.3 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 60 snaps
Jaguars-5.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.5 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 82%
Tendencies room →Broncos54.3%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 46 early downs
Jaguars51.9%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 46%
Tendencies room →Broncos0.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −18.2 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jaguars22.9%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 91%
Fourth Down room →Broncos50.0%leaned — went for it · +23.9 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±20.1 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →Broncos31.4%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars17.6%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Broncos8.6%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars20.6%right on their number · +3.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 18.2 points below their season mean of 18.2% and 1.7 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
18/30, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.7 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
18/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-13.9 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerry Jeudy banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.2 | +0.8 | 79% | 69% | 11% | 0% | 24 car, 156 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 6 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +7.7 | 85% | 94% | 27% | 20% | 6/7, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +5.8 | 93% | 100% | 21% | 44% | 4/6, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −1.4 | 56% | 66% | 15% | 0% | 9 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 23 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 252 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | +2.4 | 44% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 14 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 13 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 12.7 | +4.8 | 80% | 89% | 19% | 39% | 4/5, 87 yd |
| K.J. HamlerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +2.5 | 70% | 77% | 12% | 29% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 52 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −3.1 | 78% | 91% | 25% | 35% | 3/7, 40 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/31, 133 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 15 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.6 | 99% | 100% | 11% | 17% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB · Receiving Back | 4.0 | −4.0 | 22% | 31% | 14% | 0% | 4 car, 13 yd · 3/4, -3 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −3.6 | 95% | 94% | 15% | 12% | 1/4, 13 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.5 | 38% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.6 | 54% | 80% | 11% | 21% | 0/3, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Q4 1:43 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at JAX 25 · gained nothing · -3.80 EP · −23.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 98 yards from the DEN 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos0
Jaguars6Broncos0Jaguars7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos0Jaguars10Broncos6Jaguars10Broncos7Jaguars10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos13Jaguars10Broncos14Jaguars10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos14Jaguars16Broncos14Jaguars17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Broncos20Jaguars17Broncos21Jaguars17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 | −3.8 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Russell Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 | 19% | +5.9 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josey Jewell | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/31 | 133 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −13.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_DEN_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 38 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 17 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| +1.7 |
| K.J. Hamler | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| +5.3 |
| K.J. Hamler | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 12% | +2.7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 15% | −1.2 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 15% | −3.4 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonas Griffith | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Henningsen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 24 | 156 | 6.5 | 1 | +9.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 21% | +3.9 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 25% | −2.6 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +2.6 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −0.6 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −9.2 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Travon Walker | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andre Cisco | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
