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2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Wembley Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

21

Jacksonville Jaguars

17

JAX -1 upsetU 41 ✓

Denver Broncos 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:43, DEN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAXDEN
Q4 · 1:43DEN 21JAX 17JAX ball · 1st & 10DEN 75%

(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:43DEN +19% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 21-K.Williams at JAX 35. 21-K.Williams to JAX 35 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
  2. Q4 · 3:49JAX +18% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to JAX 33 for 47 yards (37-T.Herndon).
  3. Q4 · 7:06JAX +15% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to DEN 22 for 25 yards (2-P.Surtain).
  4. Q3 · 6:24JAX +15% win prob(6:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 80-G.Dulcich to JAX 1 for 38 yards (37-T.Herndon, 2-R.Jenkins).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:46JAX Touchdown

    (7:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-E.Engram for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0JAX 7
  2. Q2 · 8:46JAX Field goal

    (8:46) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: DEN 0JAX 10
  3. Q2 · 2:50DEN Touchdown

    (2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 10-J.Jeudy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7JAX 10
  4. Q3 · 5:10DEN Touchdown

    (5:10) 60-L.Wattenberg reported in as eligible. 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14JAX 10
  5. Q4 · 3:57JAX Touchdown

    (3:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14JAX 17
  6. Q4 · 1:47DEN Touchdown

    (1:47) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21JAX 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosJaguars
Offensive plays6065
Total yards331 (edge)305
Yards per play5.5 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.10
Success rate45%46% (edge)
Dropback rate57%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.120.28 (edge)
Third downs2/114/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)57 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1818
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

18/30, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

18/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-13.9 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

24 att, 156 yds, 1 TD

9.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Latavius MurrayRB

14 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Greg DulcichTE

4/5 for 87 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

6/7 for 63 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 225-31:32Punt
2JAXJAX 27592:20Punt
3DENDEN 17220:32Interception
4JAXDEN 376472:56Touchdown +7
5DENDEN 256222:36Punt
6JAXJAX 1913447:22Interception
7DENDEN 20491:50Punt
8JAXJAX 276542:09Field goal +3
9DENDEN 2513755:59Touchdown +7
10JAXJAX 339241:43Punt
11DENDEN 99361:01Turnover on downs
12JAXJAX 2410305:31Punt
13DENDEN 210984:22Touchdown +7
14JAXJAX 257143:01Punt
15DENDEN 254-61:36Punt
16JAXJAX 39431:10Punt
17DENDEN 20481:29Punt
18JAXJAX 299334:33Punt
19DENDEN 7401:12Punt
20JAXDEN 477473:12Touchdown +7
21DENDEN 209802:11Touchdown +7
22JAXJAX 25200:07Interception
23DENJAX 354101:36End of game

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 98 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson18/302521132.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Latavius Murray14463.31-3.8
Melvin Gordon9293.21-0.1
Russell Wilson4174.301.7
K.J. Hamler199.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Greg Dulcich4587019%5.9
Jerry Jeudy6763127%5.3
K.J. Hamler2352012%2.7
Melvin Gordon3423015%-1.2
Latavius Murray121308%-0.3
Courtland Sutton1413015%-3.4
Montrell Washington11104%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence18/31133122-13.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne241566.519.7
Trevor Lawrence3155.00-0.3
Jamycal Hasty4133.30-2.4
Zay Jones177.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram4655121%3.9
Christian Kirk3740025%-2.6
Zay Jones3328011%2.6
Dan Arnold11804%0.6
Travis Etienne336011%-0.6
Marvin Jones030011%-9.2
Chris Manhertz11-104%-1.0
Jamycal Hasty34-3014%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -1
Closing total
41
DEN moneyline
-103
JAX moneyline
-107

Jaguars closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 38 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
DEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Nathaniel Hackett vs Doug Pederson