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2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · New Era Field

Green Bay Packers

17

Buffalo BillsWinner

27

BUF -10.5 no coverU 47 ✓

Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 8:51, GB +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 8:51GB 0 — BUF 0GB ball · 4th & 3BUF 74%

(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:51GB +6% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
  2. Q1 · 5:18BUF +5% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to GB 1 for 20 yards (29-R.Douglas, 31-A.Amos).
  3. Q1 · 7:28BUF +5% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right guard to GB 17 for 30 yards (26-D.Savage).
  4. Q2 · 6:21BUF +4% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:40BUF Touchdown

    (3:40) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — BUF 7
  2. Q2 · 15:00BUF Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Reed]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — BUF 14
  3. Q2 · 6:21GB Touchdown

    (6:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — BUF 14
  4. Q2 · 2:00BUF Touchdown

    (2:00) 6-I.McKenzie left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — BUF 21
  5. Q2 · 0:03BUF Field goal

    (:03) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: GB 7 — BUF 24
  6. Q3 · 10:24GB Field goal

    (10:24) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — BUF 24
  7. Q3 · 6:03BUF Field goal

    (6:03) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — BUF 27
  8. Q4 · 6:42GB Touchdown

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-S.Toure for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — BUF 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBills
Offensive plays6353
Total yards398 (edge)370
Yards per play6.37.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.12 (edge)
Success rate48%51% (edge)
Dropback rate52%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.07
Third downs6/12 (edge)2/7
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)99
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)17
Sacks taken22
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

13/25, 218 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

0.6 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

19/30, 203 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

20 att, 143 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/8 for 108 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

4/7 for 62 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BUFBUF 25560:58Punt
2GBGB 289345:15Turnover on downs
3BUFBUF 399615:13Touchdown +7
4GBGB 20551:53Punt
5BUFBUF 495511:48Touchdown +7
6GBGB 2014808:38Touchdown +7
7BUFBUF 2010654:21Touchdown +7
8GBGB 216131:01Punt
9BUFBUF 204510:53Field goal +3
10GBGB 89774:40Field goal +3
11BUFBUF 309564:21Field goal +3
12GBGB 2512486:47Turnover on downs
13BUFBUF 275-41:38Interception
14GBGB 47100:05Interception
15BUFGB 445412:24Interception
16GBGB 59953:33Touchdown +7
17BUFBUF 2612433:58Punt
18GBGB 179461:56Missed field goal
19BUFBUF 45100:38End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers19/30203212-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones201437.202.7
A.J. Dillon10545.401.4
Aaron Rodgers11111.001.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs4762124%1.9
Samori Toure1437114%2.4
Robert Tonyan5635021%1.0
Amari Rodgers1322010%-4.2
Aaron Jones4514017%-2.0
Christian Watson111203%-0.3
A.J. Dillon11903%0.9
Josiah Deguara11903%0.5
Sammy Watkins11303%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Adrian Amos410.000
Rasul Douglas401.011
Isaiah McDuffie220.000
Quay Walker310.000
Darnell Savage400.000
Preston Smith310.000
Eric Wilson311.000
De'Vondre Campbell210.000
Kingsley Enagbare200.000
Jarran Reed110.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen13/252182220.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary14674.80-2.2
Josh Allen6498.205.4
James Cook5357.002.2
Isaiah McKenzie221.010.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs68108132%5.0
James Cook114104%3.5
Gabe Davis2735028%-7.9
Devin Singletary121608%0.8
Dawson Knox2310112%0.8
Isaiah McKenzie11804%0.6
Khalil Shakir02008%-0.3
Jake Kumerow01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds830.001
Damar Hamlin360.000
Taron Johnson410.000
Tim Settle121.001
Carlos Basham210.000
Gregory Rousseau211.000
Jordan Poyer120.000
Matt Milano300.011
Cameron Lewis110.000
Dane Jackson200.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -10.5
Closing total
47
GB moneyline
+365
BUF moneyline
-445

Bills closed -10.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
GB 7 days · BUF 14 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean McDermott