For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Packers150 of 163 plays carry both curves
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
Swing +5.6 for BillsExpected points +2.70 for BillsThe model had Packers 27 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:51GB +6% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
1st · 5:18BUF +5% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to GB 1 for 20 yards (29-R.Douglas, 31-A.Amos).
1st · 7:28BUF +5% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right guard to GB 17 for 30 yards (26-D.Savage).
2nd · 6:21BUF +4% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:10GB +4% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at 50 for -7 yards (99-T.Settle).
1st · 6:09GB +4% win prob(6:09) (Shotgun) 6-I.McKenzie right end to GB 21 for -5 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
1st · 12:05BUF +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 1-yard touchdown catch with 3:40 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Packers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Packers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.07Bills: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bills’s 53 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's blitz rate sent, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
BUF's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills12.1%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 12.0 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
Q1 8:51 · Packers · 4th & 3 at BUF 38 · gained nothing · -2.70 EP · −10.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 95 yards from the GB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
45%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2457%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0771%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1332%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1033%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.7740%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2540%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Bills 38
Packers0Bills6
Packers0Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Packers 35
2nd quarter45 plays
Packers0Bills13
Packers0Bills14
Touchdown2 plays
Packers6Bills14
Packers7Bills14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Bills 17
Packers7Bills20
Packers7Bills21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Packers 7
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 34
Packers7Bills24
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Packers 24
3rd quarter33 plays
Packers10Bills24
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Bills 10
Packers10Bills27
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Packers 19
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bills 35
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 26
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 33
Intercepted1 play
Intercepted5 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Packers 3
Packers16Bills27
Packers17Bills27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Bills 37
Punt15 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Packers 38
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Bills 37
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
