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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q1 8:51, 4th and 3, on Aaron Rodgers — 5.6 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 8:51, Bills +5.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:51 · 4th and 3
Aaron Rodgers
Bills
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
5.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 7 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 1-yard touchdown catch with 3:40 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBills
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 63 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bills’s 53 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Bills 5.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's blitz rate sent, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
GB's pass rate over expected, −15.4 pts, is past their previous low of −9.4 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
BUF's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 18.2% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 27 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-15.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.0 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 63 snaps
Bills8.2 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 86%
Tendencies room →Packers51.0%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 53.0%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 49 early downs
Bills52.2%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 54%
Tendencies room →Packers15.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.7 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills30.0%leaned — faked the run · +10.2 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Packers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +22.4 vs their 44.3%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15% to 54%
Tendencies room →Packers23.3%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills3.0%leaned — sat back · −13.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers13.3%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills12.1%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 12.0 points below their season mean of -3.4 pts and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
13/25, 218 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
0.6 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
Passing · GB
19/30, 203 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-1.4 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Stefon Diggs banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.8 | +5.0 | 80% | 87% | 32% | 40% | 6/8, 108 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.7 | +3.4 | 67% | 61% | 17% | 0% | 20 car, 143 yd · 4/5, 14 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | −4.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/25, 218 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 49 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 16.2 | +3.4 | 82% | 88% | 24% | 55% | 4/7, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 15.2 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 203 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 11 yd |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +4.0 | 21% | 42% | 14% | 30% | 1/4, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 9.3 | −4.1 | 75% | 77% | 8% | 2% | 14 car, 67 yd · 1/2, 16 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +0.6 | 88% | 87% | 12% | 8% | 2/3, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB | 8.6 | +3.5 | 25% | 23% | 4% | 5% | 5 car, 35 yd · 1/1, 41 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Featured Receiver | 8.5 | −0.3 | 74% | 76% | 21% | 15% | 5/6, 35 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +3.3 | 53% | 53% | 4% | 2% | 2 car, 2 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB | 7.3 | +1.6 | 42% | 45% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 54 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 5.5 | −10.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.0 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 8% | 1/3, 22 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 45% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 79% | 70% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 29% | 37% | 8% | 8% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs [91-E.Oliver].
Q1 8:51 · Packers · 4th & 3 at BUF 38 · gained nothing · -2.70 EP · −10.0% win probability
148 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 95 yards from the GB 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Bills6Packers0Bills7Packers0Bills13Packers0Bills14Packers6Bills14Packers7Bills14Packers7Bills20Packers7Bills21Packers7Bills24Packers10Bills24Packers10Bills27Packers16Bills27Packers17Bills27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 203 | 2 | 1 | 2 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 0 | +2.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 24% | +1.9 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Amos | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah McDuffie |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13/25 | 218 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_GB_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -10.5, won by 10 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 44 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 11.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| +2.4 |
| Robert Tonyan | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 21% | +1.0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | −4.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −2.0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 | +5.4 |
| James Cook | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 108 | 1 | 32% | +5.0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4% | +3.5 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 28% | −7.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damar Hamlin | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Settle | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carlos Basham | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
