2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Las Vegas Raiders

New Orleans SaintsWinner

LV -1 upsetU 48.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:23, LV +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:23LV 0 — NO 7LV ball · 4th & 2NO 67%

(14:23) (Punt formation) 41-M.Farley right end to LV 42 for -3 yards (29-P.Adebo). PENALTY on LV-34-B.Bolden, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:23LV +9% win prob(14:23) (Punt formation) 41-M.Farley right end to LV 42 for -3 yards (29-P.Adebo). PENALTY on LV-34-B.Bolden, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 5:01NO +8% win prob(5:01) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 89-R.Shaheed to LV 24 for 30 yards (29-A.Averett). Pass 29, YAC 1
Q1 · 2:56NO +5% win prob(2:56) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end to LV 8 for 7 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
Q1 · 10:27NO +5% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-M.Hollins to LV 32 for 13 yards (29-P.Adebo). Pass 4, YAC 9

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:36NO Touchdown
(1:36) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — NO 7
Q2 · 12:47NO Field goal
(12:47) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: LV 0 — NO 10
Q2 · 7:23NO Touchdown
(7:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 14 (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — NO 17
Q3 · 11:12NO Touchdown
(11:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — NO 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Saints
Offensive plays	55	63
Total yards	184	367 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	33%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

22/30, 229 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

15/26, 101 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

18 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

10 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

9/10 for 96 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Mack HollinsWR

7/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	5	-2	1:40	Punt
2	NO	NO 33	4	8	1:32	Punt
3	LV	LV 16	9	32	3:33	Punt
4	NO	NO 16	12	84	6:43	Touchdown +7
5	LV	LV 25	6	17	2:14	Turnover on downs
6	NO	LV 27	4	9	1:35	Field goal +3
7	LV	LV 22	4	8	1:34	Interception
8	NO	LV 45	7	50	3:54	Touchdown +7
9	LV	LV 25	10	19	4:11	Punt
10	NO	NO 26	12	54	3:00	Missed field goal
11	LV	LV 28	1	0	0:04	End of half
12	NO	NO 25	9	66	3:57	Touchdown +7
13	LV	LV 25	7	11	3:16	Punt
14	NO	NO 18	8	35	4:55	Punt
15	LV	LV 13	10	35	5:04	Punt
16	NO	NO 7	15	61	9:15	Turnover on downs
17	LV	LV 32	14	64	3:33	End of game

4 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 84 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	15/26	101	0	1	3	-11.9
Jarrett Stidham	8/13	72	0	0	1	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	10	43	4.3	-0.7
Derek Carr	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
Davante Adams	1	-1	-1.0	-2.3
Matthias Farley	1	-3	-3.0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	7	8	64	21%	6.9
Foster Moreau	6	9	31	23%	-1.3
Keelan Cole	2	5	30	13%	2.2
Ameer Abdullah	4	5	28	13%	-5.5
Josh Jacobs	2	4	11	10%	-1.2
Hunter Renfrow	1	2	6	5%	-4.0
Davante Adams	1	5	3	13%	-4.9
Jesper Horsted	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Divine Deablo	8	5	0
Anthony Averett	7	1	0
Denzel Perryman	6	2	0
Maxx Crosby	4	2	0
Rock Ya-Sin	5	1	1
Duron Harmon	2	2	1
Blake Martinez	1	2	0
Trevon Moehrig	2	1	0
Andrew Billings	1	1	0
Mack Hollins	1	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	22/30	229	2	0	0	9.9
Taysom Hill	1/1	2	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	18	62	3.4	1	-1.2
Taysom Hill	10	61	6.1	0	3.4
Dwayne Washington	4	13	3.3	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	9	10	96	2	33%	6.1
Chris Olave	5	7	52	0	23%	5.8
Rashid Shaheed	3	3	38	0	10%	2.3
Juwan Johnson	2	4	14	0	13%	-4.2
Taysom Hill	1	2	11	0	7%	1.1
Marquez Callaway	1	1	10	0	3%	0.7
Nick Vannett	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
Mark Ingram	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.5
Tre'Quan Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	7	4	0.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	6	2	0.0	0	1
Payton Turner	2	2	2.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	1	0.0	1	2
Alontae Taylor	3	0	0.0	0	3
Kentavius Street	1	1	0.5	0	0
Cameron Jordan	0	2	0.5	0	0
Chris Harris	2	0	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	1	1	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -1
Closing total: 48.5
LV moneyline: -119
NO moneyline: +108

Raiders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 24 — under by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: LV 7 days · NO 10 days
Coaches: Josh McDaniels vs Dennis Allen