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Miami Dolphins 31, Lions 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:35, 3rd and 6, on Jaylen Waddle — 12.5 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:35 · 3rd and 6
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Miami Dolphins 31–27. Biggest swing: Q2 11:35, Dolphins +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. HockensonLionsQ1 6:57(6:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 88-T.Hockenson to MIA 12 for 58 yards (32-V.McKinley).
11.0pts
Mike GesickiDolphinsQ3 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-74-L.Eichenberg was injured during the play. He is Out.
11.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 6 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.21 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Dolphins158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.5 for LionsExpected points −3.82 for LionsThe model had Lions 15 points higher than the market did.play 52
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:35DET +13% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:17DET +12% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-74-L.Eichenberg was injured during the play. He is Out.
1st · 6:57DET +11% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 88-T.Hockenson to MIA 12 for 58 yards (32-V.McKinley).
3rd · 3:50DET +10% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa scrambles up the middle to DET 29 for 18 yards (1-J.Okudah).
4th · 2:59MIA +10% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Reynolds.
1st · 3:37DET +9% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill to DET 23 for 36 yards (41-A.Parker, 24-A.Oruwariye).
3rd · 10:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Gesicki's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 3rd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd0:17Mike Gesicki·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+731–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryLions
Dolphins5–3Lions
478Total yards393
7.8Yards per play6.9
51%Success rate54%
73%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays6
27First downs20
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Dolphins: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Dolphins: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Dolphins: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.14Lions: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Lions 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 41.2% in week 2.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points.
DET's early-down pass rate, 63.0%, is past their previous high of 60.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −3.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions5.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteMIA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 32.0% and 1.3 times their own 13.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Reynolds.
Q4 2:59 · Lions · 4th & 1 at MIA 35 · gained nothing · -3.41 EP · −12.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
48%
Yards
869
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0277%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4270%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.0858%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.5943%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0044%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Dolphins0Lions6
Dolphins0Lions7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 7
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 35
Dolphins0Lions13
Dolphins0Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Dolphins 7
Dolphins6Lions14
Dolphins7Lions14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Lions 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
2nd quarter49 plays
Dolphins7Lions20
Dolphins7Lions21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins13Lions21
Dolphins14Lions21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 29
Dolphins14Lions24
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 24
Dolphins17Lions24
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 27
Dolphins17Lions27
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 8
3rd quarter35 plays
Dolphins23Lions27
Dolphins24Lions27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 1
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins30Lions27
Dolphins31Lions27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Lions 11
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 29
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Lions 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended13 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Lions 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
