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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q2 11:35, 3rd and 6, on Jaylen Waddle — 12.5 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 31–27. Biggest swing: Q2 11:35, Dolphins +12.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:35 · 3rd and 6
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 6 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.21 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 1 giveaway.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Gesicki's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 3rd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Mike Gesicki11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+731–2710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryLions
Dolphins ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Lions 4.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIA's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate, 63.0%, is past their previous high of 60.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins5.3 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 61 snaps
Lions4.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 81%
Tendencies room →Dolphins57.1%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 49 early downs
Lions63.0%leaned — passed early · +9.9 vs their 53.1%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 67%
Tendencies room →Dolphins50.0%leaned — faked the run · +18.0 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±13.7 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Lions30.8%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
Lions66.7%inside their normal wobble · +16.0 vs their 50.7%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 69%
Tendencies room →Dolphins17.9%inside their normal wobble · −13.8 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions22.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.6 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 37%
Tendencies room →Dolphins10.3%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Lions5.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
MIA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 32.0% and 1.3 times their own 13.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
29/36, 382 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
25.1 expected points added · +19.9% completion over expected
Passing · DET
27/37, 321 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.7 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylen Waddle banked 11.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.5 | +4.5 | 72% | 80% | 41% | 57% | 1 car, 7 yd · 12/14, 188 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.6 | +11.6 | 76% | 85% | 26% | 23% | 8/9, 106 yd, 2 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 29.2 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/36, 382 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 19 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 22.6 | +8.6 | 37% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 10 car, 53 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 3% | 0% | 27/37, 321 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Receiving Back | 14.3 | +1.2 | 55% | 62% | 14% | 0% | 5 car, 6 yd · 5/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | −2.1 | 95% | 95% | 27% | 27% | 7/10, 69 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +3.6 | 46% | 60% | 12% | 10% | 3/4, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +4.0 | 87% | 85% | 11% | 13% | 3/4, 80 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | −0.4 | 90% | 95% | 11% | 30% | 3/4, 76 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −1.9 | 65% | 55% | 3% | 1% | 14 car, 64 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 7.6 | +2.6 | 40% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.9 | 59% | 63% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −10.1 | 80% | 82% | 16% | 30% | 2/6, 14 yd |
| James MitchellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Maurice AlexanderWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Braylon SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.5 | 21% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 38% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 1.4 | −0.8 | 24% | 30% | 0% | — | 4 car, 14 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 0.7 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Justin JacksonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 8-J.Reynolds.
Q4 2:59 · Lions · 4th & 1 at MIA 35 · gained nothing · -3.41 EP · −12.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, manual charting on 138. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Dolphins0
Lions6Dolphins0Lions7Dolphins0Lions13Dolphins0Lions14Dolphins6Lions14Dolphins7Lions14Dolphins7Lions20Dolphins7Lions21Dolphins13Lions21Dolphins14Lions21Dolphins14Lions24Dolphins17Lions24Dolphins17Lions27Dolphins23Lions27Dolphins24Lions27How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Dolphins30Lions27Dolphins31Lions27How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 29/36 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +25.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Chase Edmonds |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 14 | 188 | 0 | 41% | +9.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 9 | 106 | 2 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jevon Holland | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/37 | 321 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_MIA_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 52; the game landed 58 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| +13.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 12% | +3.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +4.9 |
| Braylon Sanders | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | −5.4 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Keion Crossen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke Riley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 2 | +3.2 |
| C.J. Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 11% | +4.2 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 | 11% | +4.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 27% | +4.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +2.1 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16% | −4.3 |
| Maurice Alexander | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Oruwariye | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Rodriguez | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kerby Joseph | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juju Hughes | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Okwara | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
