2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

New York Jets

NE -3 ✓U 40 ✓Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

New England Patriots 22–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:03, NYJ +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:03NE 0 — NYJ 0NYJ ball · 3rd & 5NE 62%

(10:03) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 17-G.Wilson to NE 12 for 54 yards (2-J.Mills).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:03NYJ +15% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 17-G.Wilson to NE 12 for 54 yards (2-J.Mills).
Q2 · 0:48NE +14% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 25-T.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Bentley at NYJ 47. 8-J.Bentley to NYJ 40 for 7 yards (25-T.Johnson, 10-B.Berrios).
Q2 · 12:04NYJ +12% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:12NYJ +11% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:17NYJ Field goal
(8:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: NE 0 — NYJ 3
Q1 · 0:04NE Field goal
(:04) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 12:04NYJ Touchdown
(12:04) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 10
Q2 · 0:05NE Field goal
(:05) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 6 — NYJ 10
Q3 · 12:12NE Touchdown
(12:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — NYJ 10
Q3 · 5:27NE Field goal
(5:27) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 16 — NYJ 10
Q3 · 2:43NE Field goal
(2:43) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 19 — NYJ 10
Q4 · 10:39NE Field goal
(10:39) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 22 — NYJ 10
Q4 · 1:56NYJ Touchdown
(1:56) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 22 — NYJ 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Jets
Offensive plays	72	58
Total yards	294	387 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	38% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	61%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	6/18	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Jets outgained Patriots 387–294 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

20/41, 355 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/35, 194 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

11 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

6/7 for 115 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Tyler ConklinTE

6/10 for 79 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 18	5	5	0:55	Punt
2	NE	NYJ 45	4	-3	1:22	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 8	10	82	4:29	Field goal +3
4	NE	NE 25	16	62	8:14	Field goal +3
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	62	3:00	Touchdown +7
6	NE	NE 25	7	25	2:36	Interception
7	NYJ	NYJ 24	4	9	1:35	Punt
8	NE	NE 9	13	70	5:54	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 21	5	22	1:13	Interception
10	NE	NYJ 40	5	13	0:42	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 38	8	62	2:53	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	48	2:38	Missed field goal
13	NE	NE 35	10	34	4:06	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 17	5	2	1:34	Punt
15	NE	NYJ 27	4	0	1:10	Field goal +3
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
17	NE	NYJ 40	4	4	2:02	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 20	7	26	3:29	Interception
19	NE	NYJ 37	4	4	1:23	Field goal +3
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	40	1:46	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 30	4	6	1:40	Punt
22	NYJ	NYJ 21	4	3	1:53	Punt
23	NE	NE 30	6	17	1:41	Punt
24	NYJ	NYJ 12	7	88	1:44	Touchdown +7
25	NE	NYJ 43	4	0	1:51	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/35	194	1	1	6	-7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	16	71	4.4	-3.1
Damien Harris	11	37	3.4	-2.9
Mac Jones	7	19	2.7	3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	7	7	72	0	22%	3.1
Jakobi Meyers	9	13	60	1	41%	2.2
Hunter Henry	1	1	22	0	3%	1.7
Damien Harris	2	2	15	0	6%	0.8
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	13	0	6%	0.3
Jonnu Smith	3	4	10	0	13%	0.2
Nelson Agholor	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3
Kendrick Bourne	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.2
DeVante Parker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jabrill Peppers	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	5	0	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	3	0.0	2	2
Myles Bryant	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	0	3	0.0	1	1
Joshua Uche	2	0	1.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	0	1.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	1
Matt Judon	0	2	0.0	0	1
Jakobi Meyers	1	0	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	20/41	355	2	3	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	7	26	3.7	-1.5
James Robinson	5	17	3.4	-1.5
Ty Johnson	2	6	3.0	-1.0
Zach Wilson	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	6	7	115	0	21%	9.3
Tyler Conklin	6	10	79	2	29%	2.1
Denzel Mims	2	3	76	0	9%	2.9
Michael Carter	4	7	35	0	21%	-0.3
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	27	0	3%	1.7
Jeff Smith	1	1	23	0	3%	2.6
James Robinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Ty Johnson	0	2	0	0	6%	-3.9
Braxton Berrios	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2
Elijah Moore	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
C.J. Mosley	9	3	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reed	5	3	0.0	0	1
Quincy Williams	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kwon Alexander	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	3	0.0	0	0
Quinnen Williams	3	2	1.0	0	0
Michael Carter	5	0	0.0	1	1
Nathan Shepherd	2	1	1.0	0	0
John Franklin-Myers	2	1	1.0	0	0
Ahmad Gardner	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 40
NE moneyline: -155
NYJ moneyline: +140

Patriots closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 40; the game landed 39 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NE 6 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.