For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q2 2:39, 4th and 18 — 24.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:39 · 4th and 18
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
(2:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for no gain (89-W.Dissly). FUMBLES (89-W.Dissly), touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by SEA-35-J.Blount at NYG 19.
Seattle Seahawks 27–13. Biggest swing: Q2 2:39, Seahawks +24.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
24.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 16 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 13 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 36% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(2:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for no gain (89-W.Dissly). FUMBLES (89-W.Dissly), touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by SEA-35-J.Blount at NYG 19.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Lockett's 33-yard touchdown catch with 9:24 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Tyler Lockett33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno SmithLead never changed again+713–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Seahawks 4.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected, +14.1 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.5% in week 7 against 24.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.9% in week 7 against 43.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-10.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their -5.8 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 64 snaps
Seahawks14.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.1 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 89%
Tendencies room →Giants46.8%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 51.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 47 early downs
Seahawks60.9%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 56%
Tendencies room →Giants17.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Seahawks34.1%leaned — faked the run · +10.2 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.3%.
Seahawks50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.5 vs their 37.5%, and they swing ±23.4 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 70%
Tendencies room →Giants43.9%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Seahawks12.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Giants24.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Seahawks20.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.1 pts, 12.1 points above their season mean of 2.0 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
23/34, 212 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.0 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
17/31, 176 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.1 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tanner Hudson banked 2.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 212 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 26 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.5 | −0.7 | 63% | 63% | 30% | 55% | 6/10, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +0.8 | 69% | 68% | 24% | 31% | 5/8, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.2 | −5.8 | 80% | 64% | 16% | 5% | 20 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 9 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.2 | −1.2 | 77% | 63% | 6% | 2% | 18 car, 51 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | +1.5 | 74% | 77% | 19% | 30% | 5/6, 66 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/31, 176 yd · 6 car, 20 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +2.0 | 72% | 77% | 16% | 13% | 3/5, 58 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | −2.5 | 39% | 34% | 15% | 3% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Travis HomerRB | 4.1 | +1.9 | 22% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 21 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.1 | 72% | 63% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.9 | 69% | 82% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.1 | 78% | 61% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 2.5 | −1.8 | 22% | 28% | 6% | 11% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Chris MyarickTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.7 | 46% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.8 | 15% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 36% | 27% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 1.3 | −7.3 | 86% | 85% | 19% | 18% | 1/6, 3 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 1.3 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Lawrence CagerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Richie JamesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cullen GillaspiaRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-R.James to NYG 24 for no gain (89-W.Dissly). FUMBLES (89-W.Dissly), touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by SEA-35-J.Blount at NYG 19.
Q2 2:39 · Seahawks · 4th & 18 at SEA 27 · gained nothing · +5.15 EP · +21.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 79 yards from the NYG 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Seahawks6Giants0Seahawks7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Giants6Seahawks7Giants7Seahawks7Giants7Seahawks10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Giants10Seahawks10Giants10Seahawks13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Giants13Seahawks13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Giants13Seahawks19Giants13Seahawks20Giants13Seahawks26Giants13Seahawks27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 17/31 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 | −3.6 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 19% | +8.2 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Williams | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tomon Fox | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/34 | 212 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_NYG_SEA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 17.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −0.1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 16% | −2.8 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19% | −5.4 |
| Lawrence Cager | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Micah McFadden | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick McCloud | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 51 |
| 2.8 |
| 1 |
| −2.6 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 24% | −4.2 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 30% | +2.5 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | +4.2 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jackson | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ryan Neal | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dareke Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
