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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
SteelersPittsburgh13
BY 22final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia35
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 at Philadelphia Eagles 35. Final.
Eagles -11 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles 35, Steelers 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:01, 4th and 1, on Derek Watt — 7.4 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:01 · 4th and 1
Derek Watt
Steelers
(2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].
Eagles closed -11 and covered, winning by 22.
Philadelphia Eagles 35–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:01, Steelers +7.4% win probability on one snap.
7.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dallas GoedertEaglesQ1 10:51(10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PIT 39 for 5 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
3.7pts
Dallas GoedertEaglesQ2 14:09(14:09) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PIT 29 for 16 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
4.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Steelers at 1 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.40 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Steelers165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].
Swing −7.4 for EaglesExpected points −2.55 for EaglesThe model had Steelers 18 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:01PHI +7% win prob(2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].
2nd · 14:09PHI +4% win prob(14:09) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at PIT 29 for 16 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
1st · 10:51PHI +4% win prob(10:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PIT 39 for 5 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
1st · 13:21PHI +3% win prob(13:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to PHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 5 yards (13-M.Boykin).
1st · 4:39PHI +3% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PHI 18 for 21 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).
1st · 13:51PIT +3% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at PIT 18 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick).
1st · 9:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Brown's 27-yard touchdown catch with 12:53 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.40Eagles: +0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Steelers: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.47Eagles: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.49Steelers: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.27Eagles: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Eagles’s 52 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.40 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonFourth Down
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 8.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 7.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 58.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Eagles21.6%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NotePIT's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 61.7 points above their season mean of 18.3% and 2.5 times their own 24.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Claypool pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:01) 11-C.Claypool pass short left to 44-D.Watt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-T.Edwards].
Q1 2:01 · Steelers · 4th & goal at PHI 1 · gained 1 · +2.55 EP · +9.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 79 yards from the PHI 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.1365%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2773%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3736%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Steelers0Eagles6
Steelers0Eagles7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Steelers 39
Steelers6Eagles7
Steelers7Eagles7
Touchdown20 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 41
2nd quarter52 plays
Steelers7Eagles13
Steelers7Eagles14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Steelers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 18
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Steelers7Eagles20
Steelers7Eagles21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Steelers 29
Steelers10Eagles21
Field goal16 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Eagles 18
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 47
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 24
3rd quarter41 plays
Steelers10Eagles27
Steelers10Eagles28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Steelers 34
Steelers13Eagles28
Field goal17 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 11
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Steelers 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 1 to the Steelers 42
4th quarter36 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 36
Steelers13Eagles34
Steelers13Eagles35
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Steelers 11
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 40
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 11
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Eagles 20
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Steelers 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
