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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q2 12:17, 2nd and 8, on Brandon Aiyuk — 13.1 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:17, 49ers +13.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:17 · 2nd and 8
Brandon Aiyuk
49ers
(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.08 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Rams at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 9-yard touchdown catch with 1:58 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Christian McCaffrey9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+717–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 52 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Rams 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their -4.1 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 52 snaps
Rams2.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 84%
Tendencies room →49ers53.5%right on their number · +5.8 vs their 47.7%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 43 early downs
Rams59.5%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 60%
Tendencies room →49ers10.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.6 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Rams33.3%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.8%.
Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →49ers22.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams41.4%leaned — sent pressure · +13.0 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →49ers13.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams13.8%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
SF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.3%, 9.6 points below their season mean of 19.9% and 1.3 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
21/25, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.5 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected
Passing · LA
22/33, 187 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.4 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian McCaffrey banked 12.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 40.3 | +12.1 | 81% | 76% | 35% | 2% | 1/1, 34 yd, 1 TD · 18 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 8/9, 55 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 20.1 | +9.8 | 98% | 100% | 23% | 31% | 6/6, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | +6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/25, 235 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 3 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +3.5 | 100% | 100% | 19% | 13% | 3/5, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +4.6 | 36% | 28% | 4% | 18% | 1/1, 56 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 5.5 | +0.5 | 36% | 41% | 8% | 5% | 4 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 21 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −2.5 | 57% | 72% | 8% | 28% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Tyler KroftTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 34% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:17 · 49ers · 2nd & 8 at LA 34 · gained 34 · +3.77 EP · +12.7% win probability
136 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 147 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, manual charting on 121. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
147 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
147 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Rams649ers0Rams7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
49ers6Rams749ers7Rams749ers7Rams1349ers7Rams1449ers10Rams1449ers16Rams1449ers17Rams1449ers23Rams1449ers24Rams1449ers30Rams1449ers31Rams14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 21/25 | 235 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +14.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1/1 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 6 | 81 | 1 | 23% | +6.8 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 56 | 0 | 4% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 2 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Oren Burks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/33 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_SF_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -1 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 42; the game landed 45 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| +4.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 35% | +6.1 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 19% | +1.8 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +2.3 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Ridgeway | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 12 | 79 | 1 | 38% | +3.8 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 22% | +4.4 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −1.3 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 19% | −2.8 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rapp | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derion Kendrick | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
