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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers138 of 147 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 12:1749ers 6 — Rams 7SF ball · 2nd & 8LA 55%
49ers 45%Rams 55%
(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.1 for RamsExpected points −3.77 for RamsThe model had Rams 12 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:17LA +13% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:13LA +10% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-Al.Robinson ran ob at SF 10 for 23 yards.
3rd · 1:58LA +9% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:54LA +8% win prob(12:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
3rd · 13:34SF +7% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 47 for -4 yards (91-G.Gaines).
2nd · 6:07LA +7% win prob(6:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 11 yards (24-T.Rapp). PENALTY on LA-24-T.Rapp, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 42.
2nd · 9:30
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 9-yard touchdown catch with 1:58 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th6:48George Kittle·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+731–14
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers6–2Rams
368Total yards225
7.1Yards per play4.1
54%Success rate38%
56%Third-down rate62%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays3
20First downs14
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3449ers: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.6349ers: +0.63 expected points added per play
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0249ers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.32Rams: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 52 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Rams 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams13.8%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 10.3%, 9.6 points below their season mean of 19.9% and 1.3 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%53 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%53 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%53 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%53 snaps
85George KittleTE · Every snap100%53 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time98%52 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Full-time81%43 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Heavy rotation58%31 snaps
3Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation57%30 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Rotational42%22 snaps
83Willie SneadWR · Rotational40%21 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational36%19 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Rotational36%19 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational34%18 snaps
6Danny GrayWR · Situational9%5 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational8%4 snaps
86Tay MartinWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jason VerrettCBKemoko TurayDEArik ArmsteadDTKyle JuszczykFBDre GreenlawILBJauan JenningsWRDeebo SamuelWR
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCaffrey pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:17) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:17 · 49ers · 2nd & 8 at LA 34 · gained 34 · +3.77 EP · +12.7% win probability
136 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 147 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, manual charting on 121. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
147 of 147 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
147
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1361%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30+0.3350%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.8256%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.21100%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.39100%
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2520%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
147 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
147 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Rams 43
49ers0Rams6
49ers0Rams7
Touchdown21 plays, from the Rams 12 to the 49ers 1
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
49ers6Rams7
49ers7Rams7
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Rams 34
49ers7Rams13
49ers7Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 16
49ers10Rams14
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the Rams 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 49
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 42
49ers16Rams14
49ers17Rams14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the Rams 9
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter36 plays
49ers23Rams14
49ers24Rams14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 1
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
49ers30Rams14
49ers31Rams14
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Rams 7
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 26
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
