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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 8
It turned at Q1 3:02, 4th and 8 — 17.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:02 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
(3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.
Tennessee Titans 17–10. Biggest swing: Q1 3:02, Texans +17.1% win probability on one snap.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 24% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 4:29 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryTexans
Titans ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 57 snaps at a 26% dropback rate against Texans’s 50 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Texans 2.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected, −35.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 7.0 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 22.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 9.3 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
15 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
TEN's blitz rate sent, 11.4%, is past their previous low of 14.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-35.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −25.1 vs their -10.7 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−2.57× that swing) · 57 snaps
Texans-4.2 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 16% to 87%
Tendencies room →Titans22.7%off script — ran early · −23.6 vs their 46.4%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−2.02× that swing) · 44 early downs
Texans64.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Titans46.7%leaned — faked the run · +21.7 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
Texans31.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -43% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Titans25.0%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 20.8%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 46%
Tendencies room →Titans11.4%leaned — sat back · −9.5 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Texans20.0%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Titans17.1%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Texans26.7%leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.51× that swing) · 15 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -35.8 pts, 25.1 points below their season mean of -10.7 pts and 2.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
17/29, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-12.1 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
6/10, 55 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-10.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 14.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 35.8 | +14.7 | 74% | 53% | 13% | 3% | 32 car, 219 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.1 | −1.2 | 78% | 63% | 17% | 6% | 15 car, 35 yd · 3/5, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +2.7 | 81% | 80% | 20% | 44% | 4/6, 73 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB · Receiving Back | 10.5 | +4.8 | 28% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 8 car, 83 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | −3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 152 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 8 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.6 | +2.3 | 66% | 73% | 25% | 16% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.5 | 50% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −2.1 | 56% | 51% | 17% | 3% | 2/5, 19 yd |
| Troy HairstonRB | 2.7 | −0.1 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −5.9 | 83% | 83% | 17% | 32% | 1/5, 6 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.9 | 26% | 31% | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 47% | 27% | 13% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Malik WillisQB · Starter QB | 1.4 | −8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 6/10, 55 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 12 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 1.3 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rex BurkheadRB | 1.2 | −1.4 | 19% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cody HollisterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 55% | 47% | 13% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 74% | 87% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:02) 7-M.Willis pass short middle intended for 8-C.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at TEN 44. 21-S.Nelson ran ob at TEN 11 for 33 yards (7-M.Willis).
Q2 12:02 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 30 · gained nothing · -6.44 EP · −14.6% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 90 yards from the HOU 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Titans0
Texans3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Titans6Texans3Titans7Texans3Titans13Texans3Titans14Texans3Titans17Texans3Titans17Texans9Titans17Texans10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6/10 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 32 | 219 | 6.8 | 2 | +8.5 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Malik Willis | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 25% | +2.1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 13% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/29 | 152 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −12.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_08_TEN_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 39; the game landed 27 — under by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 25% | −1.5 |
| Cody Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −6.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 20% | +3.6 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17% | −5.1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 17% | −0.4 |
| Troy Hairston | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 17% | −1.9 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −1.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| M.J. Stewart | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garret Wallow | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
