2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Houston Texans

TEN -1 ✓U 39 ✓DomeTitans closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Tennessee Titans 17–10. Biggest swing: Q1 3:02, HOU +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:02TEN 0 — HOU 0HOU ball · 4th & 8TEN 62%

(3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:02HOU +17% win prob(3:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 41 for 3 yards (1-T.Smith). FUMBLES (1-T.Smith), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at TEN 42.
Q2 · 12:02TEN +15% win prob(12:02) 7-M.Willis pass short middle intended for 8-C.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at TEN 44. 21-S.Nelson ran ob at TEN 11 for 33 yards (7-M.Willis).
Q1 · 14:22HOU +12% win prob(14:22) 22-D.Henry up the middle to HOU 32 for 41 yards (21-S.Nelson).
Q1 · 11:31TEN +11% win prob(11:31) 14-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 10:43HOU Field goal
(10:43) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — HOU 3
Q2 · 4:29TEN Touchdown
(4:29) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — HOU 3
Q3 · 6:34TEN Touchdown
(6:34) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 14 — HOU 3
Q4 · 11:11TEN Field goal
(11:11) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 17 — HOU 3
Q4 · 0:21HOU Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 31-D.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 17 — HOU 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Texans
Offensive plays	57	50
Total yards	355 (edge)	162
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.35
Success rate	47% (edge)	24%
Dropback rate	26%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.73	-0.39 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	4/12 (edge)	2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

17/29, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.1 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Malik WillisQB

6/10, 55 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

32 att, 219 yds, 2 TD

8.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Dontrell HilliardRB

8 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

4/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

O.J. HowardTE

2/3 for 24 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	7	40	3:33	Missed field goal
2	HOU	HOU 38	8	28	4:41	Interception
3	TEN	TEN 31	4	5	2:19	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 6	4	2	1:38	Punt
5	HOU	TEN 42	4	-3	1:27	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 7	7	38	4:31	Interception
7	HOU	TEN 11	4	-13	1:11	Field goal +3
8	TEN	TEN 18	7	23	3:43	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 10	4	0	1:44	Punt
10	TEN	HOU 37	4	37	0:53	Touchdown +7
11	HOU	HOU 18	6	22	2:27	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 17	9	40	1:39	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 20	1	0	0:14	End of half
14	HOU	HOU 25	6	12	2:10	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 35	10	80	6:19	Touchdown +7
16	HOU	HOU 25	6	17	3:07	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 9	12	81	7:16	Field goal +3
18	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	2:01	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 31	4	5	2:04	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 19	4	-3	0:46	Punt
21	TEN	50	4	6	2:14	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 10	13	95	3:46	Touchdown +7
23	TEN	50	2	0	0:17	End of game

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 95 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Malik Willis	6/10	55	0	1	3	-10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	32	219	6.8	2	8.5
Dontrell Hilliard	8	83	10.4	0	5.4
Malik Willis	5	12	2.4	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	2	2	26	25%	2.1
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	12	13%	1.0
Derrick Henry	1	1	9	13%	0.8
Austin Hooper	1	1	5	13%	-0.9
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	2	3	25%	-1.5
Cody Hollister	0	1	0	13%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
David Long Jr.	5	2	0.0	0	0
Roger McCreary	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	1	3	0.0	0	0
Teair Tart	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	1	0.0	0	0
Hassan Haskins	3	0	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	0	1.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	0	1.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	1	1	0.0	1	2
Malik Willis	1	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	17/29	152	1	1	3	-12.1
Rex Burkhead	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dameon Pierce	15	35	2.3	0	-3.7
Davis Mills	3	8	2.7	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	4	6	73	0	20%	3.6
O.J. Howard	2	3	24	0	10%	0.1
Brevin Jordan	2	5	19	0	17%	-5.1
Dameon Pierce	3	5	16	1	17%	-0.4
Troy Hairston	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.7
Phillip Dorsett	1	5	6	0	17%	-1.9
Jordan Akins	1	2	5	0	7%	-1.1
Rex Burkhead	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Christian Harris	5	2	0.0
Eric Murray	5	1	0.0
M.J. Stewart	4	1	0.0
Derek Stingley	3	2	0.0
Christian Kirksey	3	2	0.0
Garret Wallow	2	2	0.0
Jalen Pitre	3	1	0.0
Jaleel Johnson	3	0	1.0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	1	2	0.0
Jonathan Owens	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -1
Closing total: 39
TEN moneyline: -115
HOU moneyline: +104

Titans closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 39; the game landed 27 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: TEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Lovie Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.