2022 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 30, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -3 upsetU 40.5 ✓DomeColts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 17–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, WAS +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:06WAS 17 — IND 16IND ball · 3rd & 2WAS 78%

(:06) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to IND 38 for 5 yards (29-K.Fuller) [96-J.Smith-Williams].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:06WAS +22% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to IND 38 for 5 yards (29-K.Fuller) [96-J.Smith-Williams].
Q4 · 0:41IND +22% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to IND 1 for 33 yards (5-S.Gilmore).
Q4 · 12:32WAS +22% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 89-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 53-S.Leonard (94-T.Lewis) [94-T.Lewis] at WAS 39. 53-S.Leonard to WAS 24 for 15 yards (68-A.Norwell).
Q3 · 3:35WAS +17% win prob(3:35) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to WAS 20 for 6 yards (22-D.Forrest). FUMBLES (22-D.Forrest), RECOVERED by WAS-95-C.Toohill at WAS 15.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:17IND Field goal
(14:17) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — IND 3
Q2 · 11:01WAS Touchdown
(11:01) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — IND 3
Q3 · 7:18IND Field goal
(7:18) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: WAS 7 — IND 6
Q4 · 12:35IND Field goal
(12:35) 7-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: WAS 7 — IND 9
Q4 · 11:17IND Touchdown
(11:17) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — IND 16
Q4 · 4:59WAS Field goal
(4:59) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 10 — IND 16
Q4 · 0:26WAS Touchdown
(:26) 4-T.Heinicke right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — IND 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Colts
Offensive plays	61	53
Total yards	362 (edge)	325
Yards per play	5.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	44% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	62%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	2/12	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

23/31, 279 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Sam EhlingerQB

17/23, 201 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.2 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-9.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

6 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/8 for 113 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

3/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:24	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 17	5	20	2:41	Punt
3	IND	IND 14	4	5	1:34	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 30	8	25	4:04	Punt
5	IND	IND 8	11	64	6:04	Field goal +3
6	WAS	WAS 25	8	75	3:18	Touchdown +7
7	IND	IND 25	6	17	1:31	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 10	6	29	3:13	Punt
9	IND	IND 19	6	44	3:36	Fumble
10	WAS	WAS 22	7	20	2:10	Punt
11	IND	IND 14	1	0	0:25	End of half
12	WAS	WAS 25	7	25	2:49	Turnover on downs
13	IND	50	10	29	4:58	Field goal +3
14	WAS	WAS 24	5	5	1:27	Punt
15	IND	IND 23	4	62	2:19	Fumble
16	WAS	WAS 15	4	-8	2:15	Punt
17	IND	IND 38	7	70	3:40	Field goal +3
18	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
19	IND	WAS 24	3	4	1:11	Touchdown +7
20	WAS	WAS 8	13	82	6:17	Field goal +3
21	IND	IND 25	5	9	2:16	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 11	10	89	2:17	Touchdown +7
23	IND	IND 25	4	13	0:22	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 89 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	23/31	279	1	1	2	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	6	29	4.8	1	0.7
Curtis Samuel	4	29	7.3	0	1.7
Brian Robinson	8	20	2.5	0	-3.5
Antonio Gibson	7	19	2.7	0	-2.0
J.D. McKissic	2	6	3.0	0	-0.5
Terry McLaurin	1	-7	-7.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	8	113	0	27%	4.9
Antonio Gibson	7	7	58	1	23%	3.1
Curtis Samuel	3	4	50	0	13%	7.1
Cam Sims	1	2	21	0	7%	-4.5
J.D. McKissic	3	5	14	0	17%	-4.7
Armani Rogers	1	2	13	0	7%	0.0
John Bates	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Dax Milne	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Allen	6	2	1.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	6	1	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	5	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	4	2	0.0	1
Daron Payne	3	2	1.0	0
Kamren Curl	3	2	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0.0	0
Darrick Forrest	2	0	0.0	0
Shaka Toney	1	1	0.0	0
David Mayo	1	1	0.0	1

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Ehlinger	17/23	201	0	0	2	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	16	76	4.8	0	-9.2
Parris Campbell	1	28	28.0	0	1.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	20	4.0	1	0.3
Sam Ehlinger	6	15	2.5	0	-0.6
Deon Jackson	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alec Pierce	3	5	65	22%	4.8
Michael Pittman	7	9	53	39%	1.5
Parris Campbell	2	2	43	9%	3.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	2	29	9%	1.8
Kylen Granson	3	3	11	13%	-1.2
Jonathan Taylor	0	1	0	4%	-1.9
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Rodney McLeod	3	6	0	0
Kenny Moore	6	3	0	0
Zaire Franklin	5	2	0	1
Bobby Okereke	3	4	0	0
Grover Stewart	4	2	0	1
Stephon Gilmore	3	1	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	1	1	1
E.J. Speed	2	1	0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	1	2	0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 40.5
WAS moneyline: +136
IND moneyline: -151

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: WAS 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Frank Reich