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2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Ravens151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
Swing −8.2 for SaintsExpected points −2.12 for SaintsThe model had Saints 8 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:26NO +8% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
2nd · 15:00NO +8% win prob(15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BAL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.
2nd · 9:14NO +7% win prob(9:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
2nd · 7:51NO +6% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 84-J.Oliver pushed ob at BAL 40 for 19 yards (27-A.Taylor). Pass 1, YAC 18
1st · 1:30NO +6% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 22, YAC 2
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Isaiah Likely's 24-yard touchdown catch with 1:30 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th4:22Juwan Johnson·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+727–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySaints
Ravens8–1Saints
319Total yards243
4.9Yards per play5.0
51%Success rate43%
60%Third-down rate27%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays2
21First downs12
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.16Saints: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Ravens: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.27Saints: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 65 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Saints’s 49 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Saints 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 8 against 44.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
BAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 6.4% in week 8 against 34.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints12.0%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteNO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 44.0%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.9 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%68 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap99%67 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
17Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
10Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation50%34 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
3James ProcheWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Situational24%16 snaps
15DeSean JacksonWR · Situational16%11 snaps
81Binjimen VictorWR · Situational6%4 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Situational4%3 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ben ClevelandGJosh BynesILBDavid OjaboLBGus EdwardsRBMark AndrewsTETylan WallaceWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Trystan ColonCTyler HuntleyQB
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%51 snaps
74James HurstT · Every snap100%51 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Full-time98%50 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Full-time96%49 snaps
12Chris OlaveWR · Full-time90%46 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Full-time90%46 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time88%45 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation75%38 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation71%36 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Heavy rotation65%33 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
Q1 4:26 · Ravens · 3rd & 8 at NO 47 · gained 10 · +2.12 EP · +9.8% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 88 yards from the NO 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
562
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1670%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR21+0.3719%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.1250%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1592%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3864%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6-0.3267%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.170%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 18
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 31
Ravens6Saints0
Ravens7Saints0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Saints 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 22
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 45
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 30
Ravens13Saints0
Ravens14Saints0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Saints 1
Ravens14Saints3
Field goal16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Ravens 15
3rd quarter31 plays
Ravens17Saints3
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Saints 14
Ravens17Saints6
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Ravens 10
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 34
Ravens20Saints6
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Saints 14
Intercepted2 plays
Ravens26Saints6
Ravens27Saints6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 3
Ravens27Saints12
Ravens27Saints13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Ravens 41
The period ended14 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Saints 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
