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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 7, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q1 4:26, 3rd and 8, on James Proche — 8.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 4:26, Ravens +8.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:26 · 3rd and 8
James Proche
Ravens
(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Saints at 3 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Isaiah Likely's 24-yard touchdown catch with 1:30 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Isaiah Likely24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+77–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categorySaints
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 65 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Saints’s 49 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Saints 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NO's blitz rate sent, 44.0%, is past their previous high of 27.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 8 against 44.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
BAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 6.4% in week 8 against 34.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-7.7 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 65 snaps
Saints-2.6 ptsright on their number · +4.2 vs their -6.8 pts, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 89%
Tendencies room →Ravens34.0%leaned — ran early · −16.8 vs their 50.8%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 50 early downs
Saints67.6%leaned — passed early · +17.5 vs their 50.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens44.0%leaned — faked the run · +19.3 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Saints11.4%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.5%.
Saints33.3%leaned — went for it · +19.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16% to 54%
Tendencies room →Ravens34.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints44.0%leaned — sent pressure · +25.8 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 30%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.1%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Saints12.0%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 44.0%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 18.2% and 1.9 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
19/29, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.6 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
12/22, 133 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.5 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Juwan Johnson banked 9.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan DrakeRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.9 | +3.5 | 68% | 52% | 9% | 0% | 24 car, 93 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 133 yd, 1 TD · 11 car, 82 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | −2.1 | 90% | 97% | 32% | 44% | 6/9, 71 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.2 | +9.4 | 75% | 86% | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −0.7 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 210 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −1.0 | 76% | 80% | 23% | 32% | 1/5, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.2 | −0.2 | 88% | 91% | 14% | 5% | 9 car, 30 yd · 3/4, 32 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | 0.0 | 71% | 63% | 14% | 12% | 3/4, 29 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −3.2 | 57% | 51% | 18% | 30% | 3/5, 24 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.0 | 25% | 32% | 9% | 6% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 2.9 | −0.7 | 25% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.5 | 65% | 60% | 14% | 4% | 1/3, 19 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.8 | 16% | 20% | 9% | 28% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 2.4 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 2.2 | −6.7 | 50% | 68% | 18% | 29% | 1/4, 12 yd |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 35% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 35% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Mike DavisRB | 1.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 1.6 | −0.2 | 68% | 60% | 5% | 1% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 74% | 80% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 1.1 | −1.2 | 33% | — | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd · 1 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Binjimen VictorWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
Q1 4:26 · Ravens · 3rd & 8 at NO 47 · gained 10 · +2.12 EP · +9.8% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 88 yards from the NO 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Saints0Ravens7Saints0Ravens13Saints0Ravens14Saints0Ravens14Saints3Ravens17Saints3Ravens17Saints6Ravens20Saints6Ravens26Saints6Ravens27Saints6Ravens27Saints12Ravens27Saints13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12/22 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 24 | 93 | 3.9 | 2 | −0.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 0 | +7.2 |
| Justice Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 23% | −1.5 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Humphrey | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/29 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −4.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 13 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_BAL_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 46; the game landed 40 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 11 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +2.7 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 14% | +1.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +3.3 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 18% | −0.9 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Houston | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Peters | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Odafe Oweh | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 32% | +3.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +0.9 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 14% | −2.4 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 18% | −0.3 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Maye | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Turner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
