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2022 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 7, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Baltimore RavensWinner

27

New Orleans Saints

13

BAL -1 ✓U 46 ✓Dome

Baltimore Ravens 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 4:26, NO +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑BAL ↓
Q1 · 4:26BAL 0 — NO 0BAL ball · 3rd & 8BAL 58%

(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:26NO +8% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 3-J.Proche to NO 37 for 10 yards (27-A.Taylor; 6-M.Maye). Pass 5, YAC 5
  2. Q2 · 15:00NO +8% win prob(15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BAL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.
  3. Q2 · 9:14NO +7% win prob(9:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
  4. Q2 · 7:51NO +6% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 84-J.Oliver pushed ob at BAL 40 for 19 yards (27-A.Taylor). Pass 1, YAC 18

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:30BAL Touchdown

    (1:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 22, YAC 2 (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — NO 0
  2. Q2 · 2:05BAL Touchdown

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — NO 0
  3. Q2 · 0:05NO Field goal

    (:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — NO 3
  4. Q3 · 8:29BAL Field goal

    (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — NO 3
  5. Q3 · 1:30NO Field goal

    (1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    Score after this play: BAL 17 — NO 6
  6. Q4 · 8:36BAL Field goal

    (8:36) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — NO 6
  7. Q4 · 7:02BAL Touchdown

    (7:02) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — NO 6
  8. Q4 · 4:22NO Touchdown

    (4:22) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 30 (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — NO 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensSaints
Offensive plays6549
Total yards319 (edge)243
Yards per play4.95.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)-0.16
Success rate51% (edge)43%
Dropback rate38%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.27
Third downs9/15 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)12
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Andy DaltonQB

19/29, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.6 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12/22, 133 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · -13.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Kenyan DrakeRB

24 att, 93 yds, 2 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

6/9 for 71 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

3/4 for 32 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 256191:59Punt
2BALBAL 11512:25Punt
3NONO 16492:11Punt
4BALBAL 2412767:02Touchdown +7
5NONO 20541:38Punt
6BALBAL 337122:59Punt
7NONO 22482:41Punt
8BALBAL 1913867:05Touchdown +7
9NONO 2513602:00Field goal +3
10BALBAL 2513566:35Field goal +3
11NONO 2513567:00Field goal +3
12BALBAL 25501:43Punt
13NONO 314-61:32Punt
14BALBAL 378454:39Field goal +3
15NONO 25200:07Interception
16BALNO 174171:29Touchdown +7
17NONO 1711882:42Touchdown +7
18BALBAL 2210263:50Punt
19NONO 11150:23End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson12/221331034.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenyan Drake24933.92-0.8
Lamar Jackson11827.507.2
Justice Hill4112.80-1.0
Patrick Ricard122.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Isaiah Likely1524123%-1.5
James Proche222209%2.7
Josh Oliver1319014%1.3
Kenyan Drake221609%3.3
DeSean Jackson121609%-0.4
Demarcus Robinson1412018%-0.9
Justice Hill11805%1.8
Mike Davis11705%0.3
Devin Duvernay11505%0.4
Patrick Ricard11405%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marlon Humphrey521.001
Kyle Hamilton600.000
Roquan Smith230.000
Patrick Queen500.001
Justin Houston212.511
Marcus Peters210.000
Broderick Washington110.000
Malik Harrison200.000
Odafe Oweh110.000
Brandon Stephens200.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton19/29210114-4.6
Taysom Hill1/1130000.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara9303.30-2.7
Dwayne Washington372.30-1.6
Taysom Hill166.000.3
Andy Dalton252.50-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave6971032%3.7
Juwan Johnson224217%2.9
Alvin Kamara3432014%0.9
Tre'Quan Smith3429014%-2.4
Marquez Callaway3524018%-0.3
Kevin White111004%0.7
Adam Trautman11804%0.7
Dwayne Washington11704%0.5
Taysom Hill01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marcus Maye830.000
Demario Davis521.000
Alontae Taylor320.001
Tyrann Mathieu320.000
Tanoh Kpassagnon500.000
Kaden Elliss311.000
Carl Granderson300.000
Payton Turner300.000
Pete Werner120.000
Paulson Adebo300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -1
Closing total
46
BAL moneyline
-124
NO moneyline
+112

Ravens closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 46; the game landed 40 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
BAL 11 days · NO 8 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Dennis Allen