2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo Bills

New York JetsWinner

BUF -11 upsetU 46 ✓17 mph windBills closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, BUF +25% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:17BUF 17 — NYJ 20BUF ball · 2nd & 2NYJ 65%

(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:17BUF +25% win prob(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.
Q4 · 13:38NYJ +14% win prob(13:38) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 · 2:08NYJ +12% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 11-D.Mims to BUF 6 for 12 yards (24-K.Elam).
Q3 · 5:38BUF +11% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Gardner at BUF 35. 1-A.Gardner to BUF 19 for 16 yards (13-G.Davis).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:41BUF Touchdown
(4:41) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 0
Q1 · 0:35NYJ Field goal
(:35) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 6:38BUF Touchdown
(6:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — NYJ 3
Q2 · 0:35NYJ Touchdown
(:35) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — NYJ 10
Q3 · 4:10NYJ Touchdown
(4:10) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 23-J.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — NYJ 17
Q4 · 13:38BUF Field goal
(13:38) 2-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — NYJ 17
Q4 · 1:45NYJ Field goal
(1:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Score after this play: BUF 17 — NYJ 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	61	60
Total yards	317 (edge)	311
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	48%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Bills outgained Jets 317–311 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/34, 205 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.7 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

18/25, 154 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 86 yds, 2 TD

12.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

12 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

5/10 for 93 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

8/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 45	4	42	0:49	Interception
2	NYJ	NYJ 14	4	8	1:50	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 33	15	67	7:42	Touchdown +7
4	NYJ	NYJ 16	8	34	4:08	Field goal +3
5	BUF	BUF 25	7	14	1:40	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 20	6	35	3:09	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 7	10	93	4:12	Touchdown +7
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	15	75	5:58	Touchdown +7
9	BUF	BUF 25	7	38	0:32	Missed field goal
10	NYJ	NYJ 20	15	57	8:39	Fumble
11	BUF	BUF 29	2	-7	0:51	Interception
12	NYJ	BUF 19	5	19	1:27	Touchdown +7
13	BUF	BUF 25	13	42	5:30	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 40	5	2	0:59	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 27	9	19	4:41	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 4	13	81	6:10	Field goal +3
17	BUF	BUF 25	5	9	1:19	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	BUF 14	1	0	0:24	End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 93 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/34	205	0	2	5	-12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	9	86	9.6	2	12.6
Devin Singletary	8	24	3.0	0	-1.9
James Cook	4	15	3.8	0	-0.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	9	9.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	5	10	93	30%	4.3
Gabe Davis	2	5	33	15%	-8.3
Dawson Knox	3	4	25	12%	-4.5
Devin Singletary	4	5	24	15%	1.4
James Cook	2	4	18	12%	1.4
Isaiah McKenzie	2	3	12	9%	0.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	0	1	0	3%	-1.2
Jake Kumerow	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Damar Hamlin	7	4	1.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	6	0.0	0
Jaquan Johnson	4	5	0.0	0
Terrel Bernard	1	5	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	3	2	0.0	1
Dane Jackson	2	3	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	1	2	0.0	0
Kaiir Elam	3	0	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	1	2	0.0	0
Von Miller	2	0	1.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	18/25	154	1	0	2	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	12	76	6.3	1	0.7
James Robinson	13	48	3.7	0	-1.2
Zach Wilson	5	24	4.8	0	0.2
Ty Johnson	2	17	8.5	0	-0.0
Garrett Wilson	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Ashtyn Davis	1	2	2.0	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Garrett Wilson	8	9	92	0	38%	4.0
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	16	0	13%	1.8
Denzel Mims	1	4	12	0	17%	-1.3
Michael Carter	1	1	10	0	4%	1.0
Tyler Conklin	1	2	7	0	8%	-0.7
Jeff Smith	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Braxton Berrios	1	2	6	0	8%	0.6
James Robinson	2	2	5	1	8%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ahmad Gardner	3	4	0.0	1	1
C.J. Mosley	4	1	1.0	0	1
Lamarcus Joyner	3	2	0.0	0	0
Quincy Williams	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jamien Sherwood	3	1	0.5	0	0
Micheal Clemons	2	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	1	3	0.0	0	1
Kwon Alexander	1	2	0.5	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	1	0.0	1	2
John Franklin-Myers	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -11
Closing total: 46
BUF moneyline: -494
NYJ moneyline: +400

Bills closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BUF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.