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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:53 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q4 1:17, 2nd and 2, on Josh Allen — 24.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, Jets +24.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:17 · 2nd and 2
Josh Allen
Jets
(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.
24.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 13 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bills at 3 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — +0.36 expected points per carry, against Jets at +0.08 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 23.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 42 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Greg Zuerlein's 28-yard field goal with 1:45 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Greg Zuerlein28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+317–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryJets
Jets ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Jets 5.
Bills outgained Jets 317-311 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's blitz rate sent, 44.8%, is past their previous high of 23.2% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bills5.4 ptsright on their number · −0.7 vs their 6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 61 snaps
Jets-6.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 89%
Tendencies room →Bills70.2%inside their normal wobble · +9.6 vs their 60.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 47 early downs
Jets42.2%leaned — ran early · −14.4 vs their 56.6%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 47%
Tendencies room →Bills19.0%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets10.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 18.5%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 174%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.7%.
Jets50.0%inside their normal wobble · +19.6 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±32.9 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14% to 49%
Tendencies room →Bills44.8%off script — sent pressure · +28.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+2.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets16.7%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 39%
Tendencies room →Bills10.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets16.7%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 19.6%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
BUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 44.8%, 28.4 points above their season mean of 16.4% and 2.4 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
18/34, 205 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.7 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
18/25, 154 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.8 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Michael Carter banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 24.8 | +2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/34, 205 yd, 2 INT · 9 car, 86 yd, 2 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | +1.7 | 92% | 90% | 38% | 45% | 1 car, 7 yd · 8/9, 92 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Committee Back | 15.6 | +7.7 | 52% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 12 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | −3.6 | 74% | 79% | 30% | 46% | 5/10, 93 yd |
| James RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | +3.5 | 40% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 48 yd · 2/2, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 10.6 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/25, 154 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 24 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 8.8 | −2.0 | 74% | 67% | 15% | 0% | 8 car, 24 yd · 4/5, 24 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −1.3 | 85% | 81% | 12% | 5% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| James CookRB · Receiving Back | 5.3 | −3.1 | 23% | 24% | 12% | 2% | 4 car, 15 yd · 2/4, 18 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 5.3 | −3.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | 0.0 | 53% | 34% | 13% | 3% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.0 | 66% | 62% | 9% | 2% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Denzel MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −4.1 | 83% | 79% | 17% | 42% | 1/4, 12 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 1.7 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.1 | 72% | 76% | 8% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.1 | 35% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jake KumerowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 24 for -9 yards (47-B.Huff). FUMBLES (47-B.Huff) [47-B.Huff], touched at BUF 24, recovered by BUF-71-R.Bates at BUF 14.
Q4 1:17 · Bills · 2nd & 2 at BUF 33 · lost 9 · -0.89 EP · −18.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, manual charting on 134. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 93 yards from the BUF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Bills6
Jets0Bills7Jets0Bills7Jets3How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Bills13Jets3Bills14Jets3Bills14Jets9Bills14Jets10How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bills14Jets16Bills14Jets17Bills17Jets17Bills17Jets20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/34 | 205 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −12.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 2 | +12.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| James Cook | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 10 | 93 | 0 | 30% | +4.3 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 15% | −8.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damar Hamlin | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Johnson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/25 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_BUF_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 12% | −4.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 15% | +1.4 |
| James Cook | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaiir Elam | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Lawson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 76 |
| 6.3 |
| 1 |
| +0.7 |
| James Robinson | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Zach Wilson | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 38% | +4.0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 17% | −1.3 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −0.7 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Gardner | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lamarcus Joyner | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Clemons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwon Alexander | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
