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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Paycor Stadium

Carolina Panthers

21

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

42

CIN -7 ✓O 43 ✓

Cincinnati Bengals 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:57, CIN +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 11:57CAR 0 — CIN 0CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 70%

(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:57CIN +9% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
  2. Q1 · 15:00CAR +4% win prob4-E.Pineiro kicks 67 yards from CAR 35 to CIN -2. 25-C.Evans pushed ob at CIN 24 for 26 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on CIN-44-C.Johnston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
  3. Q1 · 12:24CAR +4% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 47 for 15 yards (24-C.Henderson).
  4. Q1 · 5:39CAR +4% win prob(5:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to CIN 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 29 for 20 yards (57-D.Wilson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:45CIN Touchdown

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q2 · 14:39CIN Touchdown

    (14:39) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-53-B.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — CIN 14
  3. Q2 · 7:31CIN Touchdown

    (7:31) 28-J.Mixon right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — CIN 21
  4. Q2 · 3:50CIN Touchdown

    (3:50) 28-J.Mixon right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — CIN 28
  5. Q2 · 0:11CIN Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — CIN 35
  6. Q3 · 10:55CAR Touchdown

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CIN 35
  7. Q3 · 4:44CIN Touchdown

    (4:44) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-M.Ioannidis, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — CIN 42
  8. Q4 · 7:52CAR Touchdown

    (7:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 88-T.Marshall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — CIN 42
  9. Q4 · 1:31CAR Touchdown

    (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-R.Blackshear left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 21 — CIN 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBengals
Offensive plays4870
Total yards228467 (edge)
Yards per play4.86.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.030.39 (edge)
Success rate40%64% (edge)
Dropback rate65%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.020.46 (edge)
Third downs2/86/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)39 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1229 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers30 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

22/28, 206 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Baker MayfieldQB

14/20, 155 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

22 att, 153 yds, 4 TD

11.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

6 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

7/8 for 60 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Joe MixonRB

4/5 for 58 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 1011905:18Touchdown +7
2CARCAR 25562:05Punt
3CINCIN 30461:00Punt
4CARCAR 26421:10Punt
5CINCIN 2911765:50Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 25571:59Punt
7CINCIN 4110545:09Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 21340:53Interception
9CINCAR 426422:51Touchdown +7
10CARCAR 256101:43Punt
11CINCIN 155250:31Punt
12CARCAR 11230:22Interception
13CINCAR 236181:05Touchdown +7
14CAR—100:04Fumble
15CARCIN 3710424:08Touchdown +7
16CINCIN 2513806:14Touchdown +7
17CARCAR 25560:56Punt
18CINCIN 1910295:54Punt
19CARCAR 1411865:01Touchdown +7
20CINCIN 237474:00Missed field goal
21CARCAR 3811622:18Touchdown +7
22CINCIN 16301:29End of game

9 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield14/2015520011.8
P.J. Walker3/109020-13.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Onta Foreman7233.30-0.9
Spencer Brown3165.300.9
Raheem Blackshear5132.611.2
P.J. Walker166.00-0.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.263.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terrace Marshall3653120%3.5
Raheem Blackshear4440013%2.2
D.J. Moore2624020%-3.9
Shi Smith122007%1.3
Tommy Tremble2411113%-1.0
Spencer Brown2310010%-1.8
Giovanni Ricci11803%0.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.01003%-0.4
D'Onta Foreman23-2010%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shaq Thompson360.000
C.J. Henderson620.000
Myles Hartsfield610.000
Jaycee Horn510.000
Xavier Woods330.000
Bravvion Roy040.001
Keith Taylor400.001
Yetur Gross-Matos210.000
Damien Wilson300.000
Frankie Luvu120.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow22/2820610110.7
Brandon Allen3/322001-0.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon221537.0411.3
Samaje Perine6518.501.7
Trent Taylor3186.000.8
Trenton Irwin11111.000.6
Joe Burrow492.312.1
Brandon Allen3-1-0.300.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins7860027%4.1
Joe Mixon4558117%6.2
Tyler Boyd5644020%0.5
Hayden Hurst5535017%3.1
Trent Taylor221407%-0.5
Trenton Irwin111403%1.6
Samaje Perine12307%-1.0
Devin Asiasi01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akeem Davis-Gaither420.000
Markus Bailey230.000
B.J. Hill220.000
Jessie Bates130.011
Joe Bachie120.000
Logan Wilson300.000
Michael Thomas120.000
Sam Hubbard110.000
Jay Tufele110.000
Eli Apple020.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -7
Closing total
43
CAR moneyline
+282
CIN moneyline
-331

Bengals closed -7 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 43; the game landed 63 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
68°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
CAR 7 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Zac Taylor