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Carolina Panthers 21 at Cincinnati Bengals 42. Final.
Bengals -7 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
Cincinnati Bengals 42, Panthers 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:57, 1st and 10, on Joe Mixon — 9.2 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:57 · 1st and 10
Joe Mixon
Bengals
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
Bengals closed -7 and covered, winning by 21.
Cincinnati Bengals 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:57, Bengals +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ1 15:004-E.Pineiro kicks 67 yards from CAR 35 to CIN -2. 25-C.Evans pushed ob at CIN 24 for 26 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on CIN-44-C.Johnston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
4.4pts
Tyler BoydPanthersQ1 12:24(12:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 47 for 15 yards (24-C.Henderson).
4.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 8 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Panthers158 of 164 plays carry both curves
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
Swing +9.2 for BengalsExpected points +2.14 for BengalsThe model had Panthers 12 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:57CIN +9% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
1st · 15:00CAR +4% win prob4-E.Pineiro kicks 67 yards from CAR 35 to CIN -2. 25-C.Evans pushed ob at CIN 24 for 26 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on CIN-44-C.Johnston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
1st · 12:24CAR +4% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 47 for 15 yards (24-C.Henderson).
1st · 5:39CAR +4% win prob(5:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to CIN 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 29 for 20 yards (57-D.Wilson).
1st · 11:12CIN +3% win prob(11:12) 77-H.Adeniji reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine right tackle to CAR 9 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson, 93-B.Roy).
1st · 1:41CIN +3% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CAR 14 for 29 yards (7-S.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 9:45 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:45Joe Mixon·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Bengals ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.39Bengals: +0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.30Bengals: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.46Bengals: +0.46 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 48 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Bengals 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.8% in week 6.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 8.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's play-action rate, 6.5%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 12.5% in week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 30 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals3.2%
off script — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−2.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 16.8% and 2.3 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
Q1 11:57 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 47 · gained 35 · +2.14 EP · +8.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
49%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.4463%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1268%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1414%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.410%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers0Bengals6
Panthers0Bengals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 36
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 28
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Panthers 5
2nd quarter55 plays
Panthers0Bengals13
Panthers0Bengals14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 3 to the Panthers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Panthers0Bengals20
Panthers0Bengals21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Panthers 3
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 25
Panthers0Bengals27
Panthers0Bengals28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bengals 40
Intercepted2 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 14
Panthers0Bengals34
Panthers0Bengals35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 12
Fumble lost1 play
3rd quarter37 plays
Panthers6Bengals35
Panthers7Bengals35
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 8
Panthers7Bengals41
Panthers7Bengals42
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Panthers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 34
4th quarter37 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 47 to midfield
Panthers13Bengals42
Panthers14Bengals42
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Bengals 17
No good7 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Panthers 30
Panthers20Bengals42
Panthers21Bengals42
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Bengals 2
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
