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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q1 11:57, 1st and 10, on Joe Mixon — 9.2 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:57, Bengals +9.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:57 · 1st and 10
Joe Mixon
Bengals
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 8 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joe Mixon's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 9:45 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 48 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Bengals 6.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate, 6.5%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate, 43.3%, is past their previous low of 54.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 30 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-5.1 ptsright on their number · +3.3 vs their -8.4 pts, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 48 snaps
Bengals-2.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.0 vs their 8.0 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 93%
Tendencies room →Panthers61.5%inside their normal wobble · +11.9 vs their 49.7%, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 39 early downs
Bengals43.3%off script — ran early · −18.5 vs their 61.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−2.01× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Panthers6.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −19.5 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bengals15.2%right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Panthers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −24.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −23.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±17.5 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 57%
Tendencies room →Panthers33.3%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals19.4%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Panthers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals3.2%off script — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−2.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
CIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 16.8% and 2.3 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
22/28, 206 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
14/20, 155 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Joe Mixon banked 26.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe MixonRB · Committee Back | 55.1 | +26.8 | 65% | 55% | 17% | 6% | 22 car, 153 yd, 4 TD · 4/5, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 19.1 | −0.5 | 78% | — | 0% | — | 22/28, 206 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Raheem BlackshearRB · Receiving Back | 15.3 | +2.0 | 35% | 32% | 13% | 0% | 5 car, 13 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 40 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +3.5 | 92% | 97% | 20% | 36% | 3/6, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 14.2 | +4.1 | 63% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 155 yd, 2 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.0 | +0.5 | 62% | 91% | 27% | 31% | 7/8, 60 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −1.4 | 66% | 91% | 20% | 22% | 5/6, 44 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.9 | 55% | 58% | 13% | 22% | 2/4, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +1.1 | 46% | 64% | 17% | 14% | 5/5, 35 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 6.4 | +0.5 | 36% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 6 car, 51 yd · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.4 | 35% | 27% | 7% | 3% | 3 car, 18 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Spencer BrownRB · Receiving Back | 4.6 | −0.7 | 27% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 3 car, 16 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 4.4 | −5.9 | 98% | 97% | 20% | 37% | 2/6, 24 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 4.1 | −3.5 | 43% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 7 car, 23 yd · 2/3, -2 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.3 | 49% | 61% | 3% | 7% | 1 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Shi SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.0 | 80% | 87% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 20 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.6 | 27% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Brandon AllenQB | 0.8 | −0.1 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 3/3, 22 yd · 3 car, -1 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chris EvansRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Devin AsiasiTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 31% | 6% | 3% | 17% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mike ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Stanley MorganWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| P.J. WalkerQB | -3.0 | −5.9 | 37% | — | 0% | — | 3/10, 9 yd, 2 INT · 1 car, 6 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon to CAR 18 for 35 yards (28-K.Taylor).
Q1 11:57 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 47 · gained 35 · +2.14 EP · +8.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Bengals6Panthers0Bengals7Panthers0Bengals13Panthers0Bengals14Panthers0Bengals20Panthers0Bengals21Panthers0Bengals27Panthers0Bengals28Panthers0Bengals34Panthers0Bengals35Panthers6Bengals35Panthers7Bengals35Panthers7Bengals41Panthers7Bengals42Panthers13Bengals42Panthers14Bengals42Panthers20Bengals42Panthers21Bengals42Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/20 | 155 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11.8 |
| P.J. Walker | 3/10 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −13.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Spencer Brown | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 3 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 20% | +3.5 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 22/28 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.7 |
| Brandon Allen | 3/3 | 22 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_CAR_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -7 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 43; the game landed 63 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
| Raheem Blackshear | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 | +1.2 |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| 13% |
| +2.2 |
| D.J. Moore | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 20% | −3.9 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Spencer Brown | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bravvion Roy | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keith Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 22 | 153 | 7.0 | 4 | +11.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Brandon Allen | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 27% | +4.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 17% | +6.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 20% | +0.5 |
| Hayden Hurst | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 17% | +3.1 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Bailey | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe Bachie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Tufele | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
