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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:11 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 15, Packers 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:09, 4th and 2, on Samori Toure — 28.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:09 · 4th and 2
Samori Toure
Packers
(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
Dome
Packers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 15–9. Biggest swing: Q4 1:09, Packers +28.7% win probability on one snap.
28.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kerby JosephLionsQ1 4:25(4:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph (55-D.Barnes) at DET -5. Touchback.
17.5pts
Aaron RodgersLionsQ4 0:42(:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Watkins.
27.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Lions at 4 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers153 of 163 plays carry both curves
(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
Swing −28.7 for LionsExpected points −4.02 for LionsThe model had Lions 4 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:09DET +29% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
4th · 0:42GB +27% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Watkins.
1st · 4:25GB +18% win prob(4:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 13-A.Lazard INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph (55-D.Barnes) at DET -5. Touchback.
3rd · 10:20GB +17% win prob(10:20) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 48. 23-J.Alexander pushed ob at DET 23 for 29 yards (70-D.Skipper).
4th · 2:04GB +17% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
3rd · 9:23GB +14% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 85-R.Tonyan INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 3. 31-K.Joseph to DET 12 for 9 yards (11-S.Watkins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Shane Zylstra's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd0:20Shane Zylstra·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · two-point goodLead never changed again+80–8
4th14:56James Mitchell·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+76–15
4th6:39Mason Crosby·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap J.Coco+39–15
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers4–5Lions
390Total yards257
5.7Yards per play4.5
41%Success rate46%
53%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
18First downs16
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.18Lions: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 69 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Lions 3.
NotePackers outgained Lions 390-257 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.0 pts in week 8 against −9.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.4 pts in week 8 against +3.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Lions10.4%
right on their number · −4.2 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.5%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 53.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.
Q4 1:09 · Packers · 4th & 2 at DET 49 · gained 32 · +4.02 EP · +23.7% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 88 yards from the GB 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
645
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0176%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1251%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2055%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3936%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-1.1829%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4033%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Packers 7
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Lions 5
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Lions 1
2nd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Packers 48
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Lions 38
Packers0Lions6
Packers0Lions8
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Lions 43
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 22
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers6Lions8
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Lions 20
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 5
4th quarter44 plays
Packers6Lions14
Packers6Lions15
Touchdown3 plays
Packers9Lions15
Field goal18 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 7
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Packers 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Lions 17
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
