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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 3 at New England Patriots 26. Final.
Patriots -5 ✓U 40 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
New England Patriots 26, Colts 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:24, 4th and 12 — 10.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:24 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.
New England Patriots 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:24, Patriots +10.3% win probability on one snap.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam EhlingerPatriotsQ1 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger sacked at NE 48 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon).
7.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ2 7:05(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).
9.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 0 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.32 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.63 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Colts163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
Swing +10.3 for PatriotsExpected points +0.61 for PatriotsThe model had Colts 8 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:24NE +10% win prob(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
2nd · 7:05IND +9% win prob(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).
1st · 8:20IND +7% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger sacked at NE 48 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon).
1st · 12:50NE +6% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger sacked at IND 22 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon). PENALTY on NE-95-D.Ekuale, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30 - No Play.
1st · 14:27IND +6% win prob(14:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Bourne.
1st · 10:17IND +6% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -3 yards (sack split by 99-D.Buckner and 91-Y.Ngakoue).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 49-yard field goal with 13:35 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:35Nick Folk·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+30–3
2nd8:55Nick Folk·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+30–6
2nd6:18Rhamondre Stevenson·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+70–13
3rd8:04Chase McLaughlin·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap L.Rhodes+33–13
3rd4:22Nick Folk·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–16
4th10:13Nick Folk·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–19
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.63Colts: −0.63 expected points added per play
−0.32Patriots: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.65Colts: −0.65 expected points added per play
−0.38Patriots: −0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.59Colts: −0.59 expected points added per play
−0.25Patriots: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Patriots 2.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.63.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.1% in week 7.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 8.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points.
NE's play-action rate turned over: 4.5% in week 8 against 26.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
IND's play-action rate turned over: 35.7% in week 8 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots28.6%
off script — got home · +14.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 2.1 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Haack punt−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).
Q2 7:05 · Colts · 4th & 9 at IND 26 · gained nothing · -5.00 EP · −9.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 49 yards from the IND 30 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.37
Success rate
29%
Yards
324
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.6875%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.3869%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.2136%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1338%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1550%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 31 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 40
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 35
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Colts 49
2nd quarter54 plays
Colts0Patriots3
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 31
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 28
Colts0Patriots6
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Colts 24
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Colts0Patriots12
Colts0Patriots13
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 39
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 43
No good12 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Patriots 19
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts3Patriots13
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 13
Colts3Patriots16
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Colts 25
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 31
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Colts 45
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Colts3Patriots19
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Colts 2
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 49
Colts3Patriots25
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 15
Colts3Patriots26
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 48
Punt3 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 47
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
