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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q1 14:24, 4th and 12 — 10.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:24, Patriots +10.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:24 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 0 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.25 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.59 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.32 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.63 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Folk's 49-yard field goal with 13:35 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Nick Folk49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 60 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Patriots 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.63.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points. · −0.8σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate turned over: 4.5% in week 8 against 26.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
IND's play-action rate turned over: 35.7% in week 8 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-0.8 ptsright on their number · +3.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 60 snaps
Patriots-1.5 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 81%
Tendencies room →Colts63.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 44 early downs
Patriots47.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 45%
Tendencies room →Colts14.3%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Patriots26.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Colts50.0%right on their number · +13.7 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±34.8 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±27.0 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 58%
Tendencies room →Colts14.7%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.1 vs their 26.3%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Colts14.7%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots28.6%off script — got home · +14.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 2.1 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
20/30, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Passing · IND
15/29, 103 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-29.4 expected points added · -16.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Hunter Henry banked 2.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 16.0 | −7.2 | 73% | 79% | 24% | 18% | 15 car, 60 yd · 3/7, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 9.7 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 147 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -2 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +2.9 | 67% | 68% | 14% | 22% | 4/4, 50 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −3.4 | 81% | 91% | 21% | 23% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/6, 42 yd |
| Jordan WilkinsRB · Receiving Back | 6.8 | −1.3 | 31% | 33% | 18% | 0% | 3 car, 13 yd · 4/5, 15 yd |
| Sam EhlingerQB · Starter QB | 6.0 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 103 yd, 1 INT · 5 car, 39 yd |
| Deon JacksonRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −3.2 | 63% | 57% | 11% | 6% | 11 car, 23 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −2.7 | 90% | 95% | 21% | 27% | 3/6, 22 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +0.6 | 54% | 41% | 10% | 0% | 3/3, 21 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.2 | 76% | 88% | 14% | 2% | 1 car, 1 yd · 3/4, 11 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.0 | 82% | 90% | 18% | 33% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/5, 15 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.4 | 55% | 50% | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.0 | 71% | 81% | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 23 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 2.7 | −5.2 | 27% | 21% | 3% | 2% | 10 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −6.4 | 67% | 68% | 14% | 39% | 1/4, 5 yd |
| Jelani WoodsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −3.2 | 29% | 26% | 11% | 26% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Phillip LindsayRB | 0.2 | −1.7 | 15% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 42% | 40% | 4% | 6% | 1 car, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keke CouteeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).
Q2 7:05 · Colts · 4th & 9 at IND 26 · gained nothing · -5.00 EP · −9.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 49 yards from the IND 30 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts0
Patriots3Colts0Patriots6Colts0Patriots12Colts0Patriots13Colts3Patriots13Colts3Patriots16Colts3Patriots19Colts3Patriots25Colts3Patriots26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 15/29 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 9 | −29.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Deon Jackson | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 | −6.6 |
| Jordan Wilkins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwity Paye | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/30 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_IND_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 40; the game landed 29 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| −3.0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 18% | −1.8 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 18% | −2.3 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11% | −2.4 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.3 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| J.J. Taylor | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 14% | +5.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 21% | −2.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −2.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 24% | −5.1 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 14% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 4 | 2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raekwon McMillan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
