2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Gillette Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -5 ✓U 40 ✓Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.

New England Patriots 26–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:24, NE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:24IND 0 — NE 0NE ball · 4th & 12NE 54%

(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:24NE +10% win prob(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).
Q2 · 7:05IND +9% win prob(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).
Q1 · 8:20IND +7% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger sacked at NE 48 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon).
Q1 · 12:50NE +6% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger sacked at IND 22 for -8 yards (9-M.Judon). PENALTY on NE-95-D.Ekuale, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:35NE Field goal
(13:35) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: IND 0 — NE 3
Q2 · 8:55NE Field goal
(8:55) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: IND 0 — NE 6
Q2 · 6:18NE Touchdown
(6:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — NE 13
Q3 · 8:04IND Field goal
(8:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
Score after this play: IND 3 — NE 13
Q3 · 4:22NE Field goal
(4:22) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: IND 3 — NE 16
Q4 · 10:13NE Field goal
(10:13) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: IND 3 — NE 19
Q4 · 4:07NE Touchdown
(4:07) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short left intended for 83-K.Granson INTERCEPTED by 31-Jo.Jones at IND 17. 31-Jo.Jones for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — NE 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	61
Total yards	121	205 (edge)
Yards per play	2.0	3.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.63	-0.32 (edge)
Success rate	23%	30% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.65	-0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.59	-0.25 (edge)
Third downs	0/14	6/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	7	11 (edge)
Sacks taken	9	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.63.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

20/30, 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Sam EhlingerQB

15/29, 103 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-29.4 expected points added · -16.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

15 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Sam EhlingerQB

5 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

4/4 for 50 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/6 for 42 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	-2	0:49	Punt
2	IND	IND 31	6	4	2:47	Punt
3	NE	NE 9	4	-3	1:50	Punt
4	IND	NE 42	4	-6	2:02	Punt
5	NE	NE 19	7	16	4:11	Punt
6	IND	IND 24	4	0	2:05	Punt
7	NE	NE 27	6	42	2:46	Field goal +3
8	IND	IND 25	5	3	1:40	Punt
9	NE	IND 43	7	29	3:00	Field goal +3
10	IND	IND 25	5	11	1:52	Punt
11	NE	IND 2	3	2	0:46	Touchdown +7
12	IND	IND 23	7	8	2:54	Punt
13	NE	NE 24	6	9	1:44	Punt
14	IND	IND 30	9	44	1:16	Missed field goal
15	NE	NE 29	1	0	0:18	End of half
16	IND	IND 25	5	1	1:36	Punt
17	NE	NE 34	2	5	0:44	Fumble
18	IND	NE 40	8	18	4:40	Field goal +3
19	NE	NE 33	10	42	3:43	Field goal +3
20	IND	IND 24	5	7	1:34	Punt
21	NE	NE 22	4	3	0:58	Punt
22	IND	IND 36	4	9	1:50	Turnover on downs
23	NE	IND 45	10	40	4:45	Field goal +3
24	IND	IND 25	5	-5	1:40	Punt
25	NE	NE 32	7	17	3:21	Punt
26	IND	IND 11	3	-5	1:10	Defensive touchdown
27	IND	IND 25	7	27	1:19	Turnover on downs
28	NE	NE 48	4	5	2:11	Punt
29	IND	IND 40	1	5	0:29	End of game

6 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 44 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a missed field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Ehlinger	15/29	103	0	1	9	-29.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sam Ehlinger	5	39	7.8	1.4
Deon Jackson	11	23	2.1	-6.6
Jordan Wilkins	3	13	4.3	-0.7
Phillip Lindsay	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Parris Campbell	1	1	1.0	-0.4
Kylen Granson	1	0	0.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Alec Pierce	1	2	23	7%	-0.1
Michael Pittman	3	6	22	21%	-3.0
Jordan Wilkins	4	5	15	18%	-1.8
Parris Campbell	2	5	15	18%	-2.3
Deon Jackson	2	3	13	11%	0.2
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	13	7%	0.7
Jelani Woods	1	3	2	11%	-2.4
Phillip Lindsay	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Kylen Granson	0	1	0	4%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kwity Paye	7	1	1.0
DeForest Buckner	4	3	1.0
Zaire Franklin	5	1	0.5
Shaquille Leonard	4	1	0.0
Rodney McLeod	3	2	0.0
Grover Stewart	4	1	0.0
Julian Blackmon	2	2	1.0
Rodney Thomas	4	0	0.0
Kenny Moore	2	2	0.0
Bobby Okereke	3	0	0.0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	20/30	147	1	0	4	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	15	60	4.0	-1.3
J.J. Taylor	10	9	0.9	-5.5
Jakobi Meyers	1	2	2.0	0.5
Kendrick Bourne	1	1	1.0	-0.5
Mac Jones	1	-2	-2.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	4	4	50	0	14%	5.4
Jakobi Meyers	5	6	42	0	21%	-2.0
Jonnu Smith	3	3	21	0	10%	-0.5
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	11	0	14%	-2.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	7	10	1	24%	-5.1
J.J. Taylor	1	1	8	0	3%	0.9
Tyquan Thornton	1	4	5	0	14%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	4	1.0	0
Matt Judon	4	2	3.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	2	3	0.0	0
Joshua Uche	4	1	3.0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	3	1	0.0	2
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0.5	0
Kyle Dugger	2	1	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -5
Closing total: 40
IND moneyline: +188
NE moneyline: -212

Patriots closed -5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 40; the game landed 29 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: IND 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Bill Belichick