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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

20

Atlanta Falcons

17

LAC -2.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 9:31, LAC +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑LAC ↓
Q3 · 9:31LAC 14 — ATL 10ATL ball · 2nd & 2LAC 56%

(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LAC 6 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack, 43-M.Davis). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LAC 6. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at 50 for 44 yards (17-O.Z

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 9:31LAC +20% win prob(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LAC 6 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack, 43-M.Davis). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LAC 6. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at 50 for 44 yards (17-O.Zaccheaus, 5-D.London).
  2. Q2 · 1:35ATL +14% win prob(1:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-D.Carter to ATL 23 for 23 yards (3-M.Walker).
  3. Q4 · 2:26ATL +13% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 48 for 10 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-C.Armstrong).
  4. Q4 · 8:49ATL +12% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-D.Carter to ATL 32 for 6 yards (26-I.Oliver).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:43ATL Touchdown

    (10:43) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — ATL 7
  2. Q1 · 0:56ATL Field goal

    (:56) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — ATL 10
  3. Q2 · 4:43LAC Touchdown

    (4:43) 30-A.Ekeler right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — ATL 10
  4. Q2 · 0:36LAC Touchdown

    (:36) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — ATL 10
  5. Q3 · 3:48ATL Touchdown

    (3:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-61-M.Hennessy was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — ATL 17
  6. Q4 · 5:31LAC Field goal

    (5:31) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — ATL 17
  7. Q4 · 0:03LAC Field goal

    (:03) 15-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — ATL 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersFalcons
Offensive plays6760
Total yards336 (edge)315
Yards per play5.05.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)0.00
Success rate45%53% (edge)
Dropback rate66%45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.26 (edge)
Third downs8/16 (edge)5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1920 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers21 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

30/43, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.0 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Marcus MariotaQB

12/23, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

10 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

14 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

8/10 for 106 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

DeAndre CarterWR

5/6 for 53 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 2510754:20Touchdown +7
2LACLAC 25581:26Punt
3ATLATL 1914708:22Field goal +3
4LACLAC 25581:07Punt
5ATLATL 314-41:32Punt
6LACLAC 17161038:35Touchdown +7
7ATLATL 255-12:10Punt
8LACLAC 3711631:56Touchdown +7
9ATLATL 25500:32Punt
10LACLAC 21531:05Punt
11ATLATL 329724:40Fumble
12LAC50320:48Interception
13ATLATL 4711534:43Touchdown +7
14LACLAC 257152:10Punt
15ATLATL 209484:22Missed field goal
16LACLAC 4014576:45Field goal +3
17ATLATL 25521:08Punt
18LACLAC 3210533:45Fumble
19LACATL 433240:34Field goal +3

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 103 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert30/432451105.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Austin Ekeler14473.41-2.0
Isaiah Spiller7294.10-0.4
Sony Michel11212.000.8
Justin Herbert133.00-0.7
Gerald Everett100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Palmer810106023%1.9
DeAndre Carter5653014%8.1
Gerald Everett5836019%0.5
Michael Bandy5826019%-2.1
Austin Ekeler7824119%-1.0
Sony Michel01002%-0.7
Richard Rodgers02005%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James451.000
Drue Tranquill631.000
Michael Davis330.001
Nasir Adderley320.000
Kenneth Murray410.000
Alohi Gilman210.000
Asante Samuel210.000
Austin Johnson210.000
Sebastian Joseph110.000
Otito Ogbonnia200.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota12/23129002-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Allgeier10999.905.2
Cordarrelle Patterson13443.423.1
Caleb Huntley7344.900.0
Marcus Mariota5244.800.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts2727030%-0.7
Tyler Allgeier112404%1.5
Drake London3723030%-9.5
Olamide Zaccheaus221909%2.2
KhaDarel Hodge121909%1.6
Cordarrelle Patterson11904%0.8
MyCole Pruitt11604%1.0
Avery Williams11204%-0.9
Damiere Byrd01004%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant560.011
Rashaan Evans360.001
Mykal Walker450.000
Cornell Armstrong340.000
Jaylinn Hawkins330.000
Isaiah Oliver420.000
Lorenzo Carter210.000
Arnold Ebiketie120.000
Jalen Dalton120.000
Ta'Quon Graham120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Closing total
49.5
LAC moneyline
-143
ATL moneyline
+130

Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
LAC 14 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Arthur Smith