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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q3 9:31, 2nd and 2, on Drake London — 20.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:31 · 2nd and 2
Drake London
Chargers
(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LAC 6 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack, 43-M.Davis). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LAC 6. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at 50 for 44 yards (17-O.Zaccheaus, 5-D.London).
Los Angeles Chargers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 9:31, Chargers +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LAC 6 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack, 43-M.Davis). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LAC 6. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at 50 for 44 yards (17-O.Z
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cameron Dicker's 37-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Cameron Dicker37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+320–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryFalcons
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Chargers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 67 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Falcons’s 60 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Falcons 4.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's blitz rate sent, 44.4%, is past their previous high of 41.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-1.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 4.3 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 67 snaps
Falcons-8.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -13.9 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 94%
Tendencies room →Chargers56.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 50 early downs
Falcons38.8%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 42.7%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 65%
Tendencies room →Chargers20.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 26.7%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Falcons40.7%right on their number · +5.2 vs their 35.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 88%
Fourth Down room →Chargers33.3%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 30.4%, and they swing ±18.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 24.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11% to 61%
Tendencies room →Chargers44.4%leaned — sent pressure · +13.2 vs their 31.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons11.4%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±13.3 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Chargers11.1%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 10.9%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
ATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.5%, 6.3 points below their season mean of 10.9% and 1.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
30/43, 245 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.0 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
12/23, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.4 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tyler Allgeier banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 24.1 | −1.8 | 68% | 68% | 19% | 0% | 14 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 7/8, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 18.6 | +2.6 | 91% | 95% | 23% | 40% | 8/10, 106 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 18.3 | +3.4 | 39% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 13 car, 44 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 13.3 | +6.8 | 38% | 44% | 4% | 1% | 10 car, 99 yd · 1/1, 24 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | −7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/43, 245 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +0.3 | 83% | 86% | 14% | 29% | 5/6, 53 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | −5.7 | 68% | 80% | 19% | 17% | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/8, 36 yd |
| Michael BandyWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −4.3 | 80% | 84% | 19% | 19% | 5/8, 26 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 7.6 | −12.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/23, 129 yd · 5 car, 24 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 4.7 | −9.8 | 69% | 70% | 30% | 61% | 2/7, 27 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.5 | 70% | 70% | 9% | 5% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Caleb HuntleyRB | 3.4 | −1.4 | 21% | 15% | 0% | — | 7 car, 34 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.3 | −13.5 | 75% | 85% | 30% | 18% | 3/7, 23 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.1 | 26% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 2.9 | −0.5 | 19% | 14% | 0% | — | 7 car, 29 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.6 | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 1.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sony MichelRB | 1.2 | −1.0 | 16% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 1 car, 12 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 25% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 48% | 52% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Richard RodgersTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LAC 6 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack, 43-M.Davis). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by LAC-52-K.Mack at LAC 6. 52-K.Mack pushed ob at 50 for 44 yards (17-O.Zaccheaus, 5-D.London).
Q3 9:31 · Falcons · 2nd & 2 at LAC 11 · gained 5 · -8.15 EP · −29.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, manual charting on 144. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 83 yards from the LAC 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers0
Falcons6Chargers0Falcons7Chargers0Falcons10Chargers6Falcons10Chargers7Falcons10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers13Falcons10Chargers14Falcons10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, dropped.
Chargers14Falcons16Chargers14Falcons17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
Chargers17Falcons17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers20Falcons17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 30/43 | 245 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 8 | 10 | 106 | 0 | 23% | +1.9 |
| DeAndre Carter | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 14% | +8.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nasir Adderley |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 12/23 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_LAC_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 19% | +0.5 |
| Michael Bandy | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 19% | −2.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 19% | −1.0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 99 |
| 9.9 |
| 0 |
| +5.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Caleb Huntley | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 30% | −0.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4% | +1.5 |
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 30% | −9.5 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Grant | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashaan Evans | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mykal Walker | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cornell Armstrong | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Dalton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
