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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:38 AM ET · 16 to play
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles13
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay16
Los Angeles Rams 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16. Final.
Buccaneers -3 push
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16, Rams 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:57, 4th and 6, on Tom Brady — 29.8 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:57 · 4th and 6
Tom Brady
Rams
(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).
U 43 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, Rams +29.8% win probability on one snap.
29.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cooper KuppRamsQ2 13:08(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.4pts
Cade OttonBuccaneersQ4 0:13(:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
29.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 20% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 4 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 1 chunk play.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 9 of 21 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 15 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Rams at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Rams178 of 190 plays carry both curves
(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).
Swing −29.8 for BuccaneersExpected points −2.73 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:57LA +30% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).
4th · 0:13TB +30% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:08TB +23% win prob(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:44TB +20% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 32 for 28 yards (24-T.Rapp).
4th · 0:54LA +15% win prob(:54) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 40, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 40 for no gain (21-R.Yeast).
2nd · 2:11TB +15% win prob(2:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to TB 1, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 10 for 9 yards (97-M.Hoecht).
4th · 3:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade Otton's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:13 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:19Ryan Succop·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+30–3
2nd13:08Cooper Kupp·69-yd TD catch69-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–3
2nd0:28Ryan Succop·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+37–6
3rd9:17Matt Gay·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+310–6
3rd0:13Matt Gay·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Orzech+313–6
4th8:13Ryan Succop·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+313–9
4th0:13Cade Otton·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+713–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Rams1–7Buccaneers
207Total yards323
3.8Yards per play4.1
20%Success rate38%
27%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays1
9First downs16
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Rams: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.16Buccaneers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Rams: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.39Buccaneers: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 78 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.1% in week 8 against 25.8% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Buccaneers25.8%
leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.8%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:13 · Buccaneers · 1st & goal at LA 1 · gained 1 · +2.38 EP · +33.6% win probability
176 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 91 yards from the LA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
32%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.1188%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1859%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4936%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 32
Rams0Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Rams 2
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 23
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 20
2nd quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams6Buccaneers3
Rams7Buccaneers3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 32
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 23
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 18
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Rams 33
Punt4 plays
Rams7Buccaneers6
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Rams 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays
Rams10Buccaneers6
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Rams 45
Rams13Buccaneers6
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Buccaneers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 21
Rams13Buccaneers9
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Rams 32
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Rams 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Rams13Buccaneers15
Rams13Buccaneers16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Rams 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
