2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3 pushU 43 ✓Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:57, LA +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:57LA 13 — TB 9TB ball · 4th & 6LA 55%

(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:57LA +30% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey).
Q4 · 0:13TB +30% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:08TB +23% win prob(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:44TB +20% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 32 for 28 yards (24-T.Rapp).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:19TB Field goal
(7:19) 3-R.Succop 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: LA 0 — TB 3
Q2 · 13:08LA Touchdown
(13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 7 — TB 3
Q2 · 0:28TB Field goal
(:28) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: LA 7 — TB 6
Q3 · 9:17LA Field goal
(9:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LA 10 — TB 6
Q3 · 0:13LA Field goal
(:13) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: LA 13 — TB 6
Q4 · 8:13TB Field goal
(8:13) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: LA 13 — TB 9
Q4 · 0:13TB Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 13 — TB 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	54	78
Total yards	207	323 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	4.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.16 (edge)
Success rate	20%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24 (edge)	-0.39
Third downs	4/15	9/21 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	9	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

36/58, 280 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.9 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

13/27, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.7 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

12 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

8 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/9 for 127 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Cade OttonTE

5/6 for 68 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 27	5	5	1:09	Punt
2	TB	TB 44	12	64	6:35	Field goal +3
3	LA	LA 25	8	3	3:14	Punt
4	TB	TB 18	4	15	2:02	Punt
5	LA	LA 9	9	86	4:03	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:43	Punt
7	LA	LA 19	4	4	1:00	Punt
8	TB	TB 35	4	6	0:53	Punt
9	LA	LA 11	4	7	1:37	Punt
10	TB	TB 34	10	32	4:47	Missed field goal
11	LA	LA 40	4	0	1:00	Punt
12	TB	TB 10	9	38	1:33	Field goal +3
13	LA	LA 15	2	0	0:24	End of half
14	TB	TB 25	5	-1	0:58	Punt
15	LA	LA 25	11	67	4:48	Field goal +3
16	TB	TB 25	5	5	1:38	Punt
17	LA	LA 11	4	-1	2:15	Punt
18	TB	TB 47	4	0	1:25	Turnover on downs
19	LA	TB 47	6	31	3:47	Field goal +3
20	TB	TB 25	8	9	1:46	Punt
21	LA	LA 20	4	-1	1:46	Punt
22	TB	TB 38	9	40	3:30	Field goal +3
23	LA	LA 22	5	-7	2:24	Punt
24	TB	TB 41	12	53	3:51	Turnover on downs
25	LA	LA 7	4	6	1:08	Punt
26	TB	TB 40	7	54	0:35	Touchdown +7
27	LA	LA 25	2	7	0:09	End of game

7 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	13/27	165	1	0	4	-4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	12	56	4.7	-0.2
Malcolm Brown	2	9	4.5	-0.4
Cam Akers	5	3	0.6	-1.7
Cooper Kupp	3	1	0.3	-2.0
Matthew Stafford	2	-1	-0.5	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	8	9	127	1	35%	6.6
Allen Robinson	3	5	24	0	19%	1.5
Malcolm Brown	1	1	10	0	4%	1.7
Brandon Powell	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.5
Darrell Henderson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Tyler Higbee	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5
Van Jefferson	0	5	0	0	19%	-3.7
Brycen Hopkins	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Ben Skowronek	0	2	0	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	7	5	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	6	3	0.0	2
Taylor Rapp	4	4	0.0	0
Ernest Jones	5	2	0.0	0
Troy Hill	4	3	0.0	2
A'Shawn Robinson	2	5	0.0	0
David Long	3	1	0.0	0
Nick Scott	3	1	0.0	0
Derion Kendrick	4	0	0.0	1
Aaron Donald	2	1	1.0	1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	36/58	280	1	0	1	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	8	27	3.4	-1.5
Leonard Fournette	9	19	2.1	-5.0
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	4	2.0	-0.9
Chris Godwin	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cade Otton	5	6	68	1	11%	6.1
Scott Miller	7	8	53	0	15%	2.1
Leonard Fournette	5	7	41	0	13%	0.1
Mike Evans	5	11	40	0	20%	-3.8
Chris Godwin	7	10	36	0	18%	-0.9
Julio Jones	2	5	28	0	9%	0.2
Rachaad White	3	3	7	0	5%	-0.5
Ko Kieft	1	2	6	0	4%	-0.7
Breshad Perriman	1	2	1	0	4%	-1.0
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Keanu Neal	4	5	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	5	1	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	2	0.0	0
Vita Vea	3	1	2.0	0
Jamel Dean	1	2	0.0	0
Devin White	1	2	0.0	0
Lavonte David	3	0	0.0	1
Joe Tryon	1	1	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	2	0	0.0	0
Jake Camarda	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 43
LA moneyline: +142
TB moneyline: -158

Buccaneers closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 88°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LA 7 days · TB 10 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Todd Bowles