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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

20

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

27

LV -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 3:08, LV +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑LV ↓
Q4 · 3:08LV 20 — JAX 24JAX ball · 4th & 1JAX 87%

(3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:08LV +12% win prob(3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
  2. Q1 · 10:21LV +11% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 32, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 29.
  3. Q4 · 15:00JAX +10% win prob(15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 3:51JAX +10% win prob(3:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 85-D.Arnold to LV 27 for 19 yards (29-A.Averett) [99-C.Ferrell].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:51LV Touchdown

    (4:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 14:12LV Field goal

    (14:12) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 11:00LV Touchdown

    (11:00) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 17 — JAX 0
  4. Q2 · 4:56JAX Touchdown

    (4:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 17 — JAX 7
  5. Q2 · 0:50LV Field goal

    (:50) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 20 — JAX 7
  6. Q2 · 0:03JAX Field goal

    (:03) 10-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: LV 20 — JAX 10
  7. Q3 · 10:20JAX Touchdown

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 20 — JAX 17
  8. Q4 · 15:00JAX Touchdown

    (15:00) 1-T.Etienne right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 20 — JAX 24
  9. Q4 · 1:08JAX Field goal

    (1:08) 10-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: LV 20 — JAX 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersJaguars
Offensive plays5766
Total yards321404 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.060.19 (edge)
Success rate37%56% (edge)
Dropback rate67%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.210.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24-0.13 (edge)
Third downs3/129/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps1622 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers11

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

21/36, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

25/31, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.7 expected points added · +17.9% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

28 att, 109 yds, 2 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

10/17 for 146 yds, 2 TD

47% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

8/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 25501:29Punt
2JAXJAX 307443:18Fumble
3LVLV 2911915:28Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 8541:41Punt
5LVLV 458363:56Field goal +3
6JAXJAX 25561:35Punt
7LVLV 314691:42Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 2512756:01Touchdown +7
9LVLV 2511554:05Field goal +3
10JAXJAX 259490:45Field goal +3
11JAXLV 4511554:45Touchdown +7
12LVLV 187223:13Punt
13JAXJAX 1813827:06Touchdown +7
14LVLV 1811375:00Punt
15JAXJAX 96212:28Punt
16LVLV 27431:09Punt
17JAXJAX 189593:16Missed field goal
18LVLV 31480:38Turnover on downs
19JAXLV 39491:22Field goal +3
20LVLV 25500:55Fumble
21JAXLV 14100:08End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 91 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr21/362592027.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs17673.90-1.2
Brandon Bolden155.00-2.5
Zamir White1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams1017146247%10.2
Foster Moreau2542014%2.4
Hunter Renfrow3426011%-1.1
Josh Jacobs332008%0.3
Mack Hollins2417011%0.8
Ameer Abdullah13808%-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Martinez730.000
Denzel Perryman540.000
Duron Harmon430.000
Rock Ya-Sin510.000
Johnathan Abram410.000
Anthony Averett500.001
Maxx Crosby220.000
Andrew Billings130.000
Clelin Ferrell020.001
Trevon Moehrig110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence25/3123510013.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne281093.920.3
Trevor Lawrence6538.80-3.1
Jamycal Hasty362.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Kirk8976131%6.0
Marvin Jones5648021%4.6
Zay Jones5540017%1.0
Dan Arnold111903%1.7
Travis Etienne221707%0.8
Luke Farrell111503%1.1
Evan Engram12807%-0.9
Chris Manhertz12707%-0.2
Jamycal Hasty11503%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun620.000
Andre Cisco240.001
Rayshawn Jenkins230.000
Tre Herndon300.001
Andrew Wingard210.000
Josh Hines-Allen120.000
Davon Hamilton120.000
Folorunso Fatukasi120.000
Montaric Brown110.000
Corey Peters110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -2.5
Closing total
47.5
LV moneyline
-129
JAX moneyline
+116

Raiders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 47 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
81°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
LV 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Doug Pederson