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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q4 3:08, 4th and 1, on Riley Patterson — 11.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:08 · 4th and 1
Riley Patterson
Raiders
(3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Jacksonville Jaguars 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 3:08, Raiders +11.8% win probability on one snap.
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.21 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(3:08) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LV-99-C.Ferrell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Etienne's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryJaguars
Jaguars ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 66 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Jaguars 4.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-4.5 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 57 snaps
Jaguars-5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Raiders57.1%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 42 early downs
Jaguars47.1%inside their normal wobble · −9.7 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders26.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Jaguars15.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Raiders50.0%right on their number · +10.6 vs their 39.4%, and they swing ±29.1 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.5 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±23.3 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 57%
Tendencies room →Raiders37.5%leaned — sent pressure · +13.5 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jaguars21.1%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Raiders12.5%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jaguars7.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.5 points below their season mean of 31.5% and 1.4 times their own 23.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
21/36, 259 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.9 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
25/31, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
13.7 expected points added · +17.9% completion over expected
Receiving · LV
10/17 for 146 yds, 2 TD
47% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Christian Kirk banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 36.6 | +4.7 | 95% | 100% | 47% | 55% | 10/17, 146 yd, 2 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.6 | +5.4 | 81% | 73% | 7% | 1% | 28 car, 109 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.6 | +6.3 | 75% | 88% | 31% | 35% | 8/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 18.4 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/36, 259 yd, 2 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 16.7 | +4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/31, 235 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 53 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.7 | −0.5 | 69% | 58% | 8% | 0% | 17 car, 67 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | +1.1 | 57% | 73% | 21% | 38% | 5/6, 48 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +2.4 | 94% | 91% | 17% | 11% | 5/5, 40 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −2.6 | 97% | 97% | 14% | 17% | 2/5, 42 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.0 | 75% | 84% | 11% | 8% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −3.7 | 85% | 84% | 11% | 18% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.6 | 35% | 27% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.0 | 22% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 2.1 | −0.8 | 19% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.3 | 55% | 55% | 7% | 2% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 1.8 | −3.0 | 24% | 37% | 8% | 3% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 54% | 30% | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 0.5 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 22% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D.J. TurnerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zamir WhiteRB | -0.1 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to JAX 31 for 11 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q1 6:24 · Raiders · 4th & 4 at JAX 42 · gained 11 · +3.51 EP · +13.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 82 yards from the JAX 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Raiders6
Jaguars0Raiders7Jaguars0Raiders10Jaguars0Raiders16Jaguars0Raiders17Jaguars0Raiders17Jaguars6Raiders17Jaguars7Raiders20Jaguars7Raiders20Jaguars10Raiders20Jaguars16Raiders20Jaguars17Raiders20Jaguars23Raiders20Jaguars24Raiders20Jaguars27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/36 | 259 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Zamir White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 17 | 146 | 2 | 47% | +10.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 14% | +2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Martinez | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Perryman | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/31 | 235 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +13.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_LV_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 47 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −2.5 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Averett | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Billings | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |
| 109 |
| 3.9 |
| 2 |
| +0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 31% | +6.0 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 21% | +4.6 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 17% | +1.0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +0.8 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Wingard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Peters | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
