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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · Soldier Field

Miami DolphinsWinner

35

Chicago Bears

32

MIA -4 no coverO 46 ✓17 mph wind

Miami Dolphins 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:29, MIA +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑MIA ↓
Q4 · 1:29MIA 35 — CHI 32CHI ball · 4th & 10MIA 83%

(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:29MIA +13% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.
  2. Q3 · 11:32CHI +13% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 7:55MIA +13% win prob(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.
  4. Q2 · 8:33MIA +9% win prob(8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:07CHI Field goal

    (11:07) 2-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — CHI 3
  2. Q1 · 7:35MIA Touchdown

    (7:35) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — CHI 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00CHI Touchdown

    (15:00) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — CHI 10
  4. Q2 · 10:42MIA Touchdown

    (10:42) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 14 — CHI 10
  5. Q2 · 8:33MIA Touchdown

    (8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 21 — CHI 10
  6. Q2 · 2:00CHI Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-J.Phillips]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 21 — CHI 17
  7. Q3 · 12:53MIA Touchdown

    (12:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 28 — CHI 17
  8. Q3 · 11:32CHI Touchdown

    (11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: MIA 28 — CHI 25
  9. Q3 · 6:07MIA Touchdown

    (6:07) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 23-J.Wilson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 35 — CHI 25
  10. Q4 · 11:42CHI Touchdown

    (11:42) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 35 — CHI 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsBears
Offensive plays5070
Total yards383 (edge)371
Yards per play7.7 (edge)5.3
Expected points added / play0.30 (edge)0.18
Success rate48% (edge)44%
Dropback rate62%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.61 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.09 (edge)
Third downs5/910/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)78 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1823 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers00

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/30, 302 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.0 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

17/28, 123 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

0.4 expected points added · -3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15 att, 178 yds, 1 TD

17.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Jeffery WilsonRB

9 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

7/8 for 143 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 12.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 259333:57Field goal +3
2MIAMIA 258433:30Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 2517757:41Touchdown +7
4MIAMIA 259774:13Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 256152:14Defensive touchdown
6CHICHI 2514756:32Touchdown +7
7MIAMIA 259691:46Missed field goal
8CHICHI 20100:07End of half
9MIAMIA 256752:13Touchdown +7
10CHICHI 345681:27Touchdown +8
11MIAMIA 2513755:18Touchdown +7
12CHICHI 25521:22Punt
13MIAMIA 455242:38Turnover on downs
14CHICHI 3511655:24Touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 188213:48Turnover on downs
16CHICHI 1510244:46Punt
17MIAMIA 244-10:26Punt
18CHICHI 286141:16Turnover on downs
19MIACHI 42301:22End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa21/3030230019.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jeffery Wilson9515.70-0.3
Raheem Mostert9262.91-1.4
Tua Tagovailoa500.00-4.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill78143128%12.3
Jaylen Waddle5785124%6.7
Trent Sherfield3327010%2.3
Cedrick Wilson222307%1.8
Jeffery Wilson3321110%4.9
Mike Gesicki12307%-3.3
Raheem Mostert02007%-0.6
Durham Smythe02007%-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kader Kohou700.000
Elandon Roberts250.000
Jerome Baker430.000
Eric Rowe510.000
Jaelan Phillips330.000
Zach Sieler320.000
Raekwon Davis220.000
Jevon Holland400.000
Christian Wilkins120.000
Melvin Ingram201.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields17/281233020.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Fields1517811.9117.4
David Montgomery14362.60-3.9
Khalil Herbert7233.30-1.6
Cole Kmet294.501.1
Chase Claypool144.00-0.1
Darnell Mooney122.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darnell Mooney7843130%3.6
Cole Kmet5641222%3.3
Chase Claypool2613022%-1.8
Dante Pettis111204%0.8
David Montgomery12807%0.1
N'Keal Harry12607%-0.4
Equanimeous St. Brown02007%-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eddie Jackson610.000
Jack Sanborn600.000
Kyler Gordon410.000
Jaylon Johnson310.001
Jaquan Brisker300.000
Nicholas Morrow210.001
Trevis Gipson110.000
Joe Thomas110.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad100.000
Justin Jones100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -4
Closing total
46
MIA moneyline
-193
CHI moneyline
+172

Dolphins closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 67 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
58°F, wind 17 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
MIA 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Matt Eberflus

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.