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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Miami Dolphins 35, Bears 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:29, 4th and 10, on Justin Fields — 13.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:29 · 4th and 10
Justin Fields
Dolphins
(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.
21.2 mph wind
Dolphins closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Miami Dolphins 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:29, Dolphins +13.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 21.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsBearsQ3 11:32(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
Tua TagovailoaBearsQ4 7:55(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.
12.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.61 expected points per dropback, against Bears at +0.26 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.30 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.18 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Dolphins159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.
Swing −13.3 for BearsExpected points −2.49 for BearsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:29MIA +13% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.
3rd · 11:32CHI +13% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:55MIA +13% win prob(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.
2nd · 8:33MIA +9% win prob(8:33) 16-T.Gill punt is BLOCKED by 15-J.Phillips, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at CHI 25. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:16CHI +9% win prob(5:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end ran ob at CHI 42 for 13 yards (9-N.Igbinoghene).
4th · 11:30CHI +9% win prob(11:30) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep right to 17-J.Waddle. PENALTY on CHI-4-E.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at MIA 18 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:42 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:07Cairo Santos·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+30–3
Dolphins ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Dolphins: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.18Bears: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Dolphins: +0.61 expected points added per play
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Dolphins: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 50 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Bears’s 70 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 6, Bears 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's blitz rate sent, 56.8%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 11.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 50.0% in week 6.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 8.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's play-action rate, 48.4%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.4 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.7 points.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −28.8 pts in week 8 against −12.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bears9.7%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 8.1%, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteMIA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 56.8%, 25.1 points above their season mean of 31.7% and 1.7 times their own 14.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass−22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:55) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Smythe.
Q4 7:55 · Dolphins · 4th & 1 at CHI 14 · gained nothing · -3.96 EP · −21.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
749
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2151%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.4157%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5865%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0833%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2930%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.8880%
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Dolphins0Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 14
Dolphins6Bears3
Dolphins7Bears3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 1
The period ended16 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 27
2nd quarter48 plays
Dolphins7Bears9
Dolphins7Bears10
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Dolphins13Bears10
Dolphins14Bears10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 3
Dolphins20Bears10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
Dolphins21Bears10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Dolphins21Bears16
Dolphins21Bears17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 16
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Dolphins27Bears17
Dolphins28Bears17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Dolphins28Bears23
Dolphins28Bears25
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 39
Dolphins34Bears25
Dolphins35Bears25
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 10
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Bears 31
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 43
4th quarter46 plays
Dolphins35Bears31
Dolphins35Bears32
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Dolphins 4
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Bears 14
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 42
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 44
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
