2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · FedExField

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Washington Commanders

MIN -3 pushU 43.5 ✓Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Minnesota Vikings 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:09, MIN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:09MIN 10 — WAS 17WAS ball · 2nd & 11WAS 82%

(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:09MIN +22% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
Q3 · 14:10WAS +19% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 5:40MIN +15% win prob(5:40) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-A.Evans).
Q4 · 1:55WAS +15% win prob(1:55) 1-G.Joseph 22 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-91-J.Ridgeway, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 4 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:23MIN Touchdown
(9:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — WAS 0
Q2 · 0:41WAS Field goal
(:41) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: MIN 7 — WAS 3
Q3 · 14:10WAS Touchdown
(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — WAS 10
Q4 · 14:20WAS Touchdown
(14:20) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 15-D.Milne for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — WAS 17
Q4 · 10:49MIN Field goal
(10:49) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 10 — WAS 17
Q4 · 7:52MIN Touchdown
(7:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 4-D.Cook for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 17 — WAS 17
Q4 · 0:16MIN Field goal
(:16) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 20 — WAS 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Commanders
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	301 (edge)	264
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	34%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

22/40, 265 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.9 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

15/28, 149 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

17 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

13 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/13 for 115 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

9/9 for 70 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	11	78	5:43	Touchdown +7
2	WAS	WAS 25	7	19	2:28	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 16	4	-10	2:01	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 35	5	19	2:51	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 20	7	14	3:37	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 21	5	12	2:14	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 11	7	36	2:46	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 11	8	15	3:57	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 6	4	8	1:39	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 37	11	32	2:07	Field goal +3
11	MIN	MIN 25	6	54	0:31	Interception
12	WAS	WAS 20	1	0	0:06	End of half
13	WAS	WAS 48	4	52	0:59	Touchdown +7
14	MIN	MIN 25	8	16	2:15	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 18	10	44	6:11	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 38	4	-3	1:03	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 22	11	66	5:18	Touchdown +7
18	MIN	MIN 25	10	54	3:28	Field goal +3
19	WAS	WAS 25	5	0	2:50	Interception
20	MIN	WAS 12	3	12	0:10	Touchdown +7
21	WAS	WAS 25	5	-5	1:34	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 46	15	42	6:00	Field goal +3
23	WAS	WAS 25	2	10	0:12	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	22/40	265	2	1	2	0.9
Nick Mullens	1/1	-3	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	17	47	2.8	-5.7
Justin Jefferson	1	10	10.0	1.1
Alexander Mattison	2	1	0.5	-1.2
Kirk Cousins	2	-2	-1.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	7	13	115	1	33%	2.7
T.J. Hockenson	9	9	70	0	23%	4.4
Adam Thielen	3	7	67	0	18%	0.6
Dalvin Cook	2	6	9	1	15%	-0.8
Johnny Mundt	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6
Alexander Mattison	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
K.J. Osborn	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	8	2	0.0	0	2
Eric Kendricks	8	1	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	4	3	2.0	0	0
Akayleb Evans	3	3	0.0	0	1
Harrison Phillips	1	3	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	2	2	0.0	1	1
Za'Darius Smith	2	1	0.0	0	2
Jonathan Bullard	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	1	1	0.0	0	0
James Lynch	1	1	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	15/28	149	2	1	3	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	13	44	3.4	-2.8
Antonio Gibson	11	36	3.3	1.9
Armani Rogers	1	24	24.0	1.9
Taylor Heinicke	4	17	4.3	-0.8
Curtis Samuel	1	16	16.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	3	4	65	1	15%	4.0
Terry McLaurin	5	9	56	0	35%	-1.6
Cam Sims	1	1	12	0	4%	1.4
Antonio Gibson	2	3	11	0	12%	-1.0
Dax Milne	1	1	6	1	4%	1.7
John Bates	1	2	5	0	8%	0.2
Dyami Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3
Logan Thomas	0	3	0	0	12%	-7.4
Brian Robinson	2	2	-6	0	8%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamren Curl	6	3	0.0	0	0
Bobby McCain	6	2	0.0	0	1
Daron Payne	3	2	1.0	0	0
Jamin Davis	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jon Bostic	1	3	0.0	0	0
Danny Johnson	1	2	0.0	1	1
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	1.0	0	2
Darrick Forrest	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0	0	1
James Smith-Williams	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 43.5
MIN moneyline: -169
WAS moneyline: +151

Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: MIN 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Ron Rivera