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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q4 8:09, 2nd and 11, on Harrison Smith — 22.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:09, Vikings +22.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:09 · 2nd and 11
Harrison Smith
Vikings
(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Greg Joseph's 28-yard field goal with 0:16 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Greg Joseph28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+320–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryCommanders
Vikings ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Commanders’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Commanders 2.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings3.0 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their 2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 65 snaps
Commanders-5.4 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -7.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 86%
Tendencies room →Vikings61.2%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 49 early downs
Commanders53.1%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±14.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 57%
Tendencies room →Vikings20.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Commanders20.6%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 20.7%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Commanders33.3%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 35.3%, and they swing ±28.1 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Vikings20.6%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders25.6%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 44%
Tendencies room →Vikings20.6%leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders25.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 11.8% and 1.6 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
22/40, 265 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.9 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
15/28, 149 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-11.0 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
7/13 for 115 yds, 1 TD
33% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Curtis Samuel banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.5 | +0.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 45% | 1 car, 10 yd · 7/13, 115 yd, 1 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.1 | +9.9 | 75% | 79% | 15% | 26% | 1 car, 16 yd · 3/4, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 16.4 | −4.2 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 22/40, 265 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 16.0 | +1.4 | 91% | 93% | 23% | 13% | 9/9, 70 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 149 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | −7.4 | 86% | 86% | 15% | 1% | 17 car, 47 yd · 2/6, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.6 | −4.7 | 100% | 100% | 35% | 40% | 5/9, 56 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | −1.0 | 94% | 93% | 18% | 32% | 3/7, 67 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +4.7 | 16% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 6.7 | −3.0 | 58% | 62% | 12% | 0% | 11 car, 36 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −3.0 | 44% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 13 car, 44 yd · 2/2, -6 yd |
| Armani RogersTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.6 | 20% | 15% | 0% | — | 1 car, 24 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 44% | 53% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.9 | 39% | 38% | 8% | 8% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 1.1 | −1.2 | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.4 | 23% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 80% | 88% | 5% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dan ChisenaWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.1 | 72% | 76% | 12% | 21% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 31% | 26% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick MullensQB | -0.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 14:10 · Commanders · 2nd & 7 at MIN 49 · gained 49 · +4.37 EP · +20.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 78 yards from the MIN 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings6
Commanders0Vikings7Commanders0Vikings7Commanders3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings7Commanders9Vikings7Commanders10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings7Commanders16Vikings7Commanders17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings10Commanders17How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Vikings16Commanders17Vikings17Commanders17How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings20Commanders17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/40 | 265 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +0.9 |
| Nick Mullens | 1/1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 13 | 115 | 1 | 33% | +2.7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 9 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Eric Kendricks | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 15/28 | 149 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_MIN_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| 23% |
| +4.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 18% | +0.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 15% | −0.8 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Za'Darius Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Dantzler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Lynch | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 | 15% | +4.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 35% | −1.6 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4% | +1.7 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −7.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 8% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jon Bostic | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darrick Forrest | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Smith-Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
