For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 20 at Washington Commanders 17. Final.
Vikings -3 pushU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
Minnesota Vikings 20, Commanders 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 8:09, 2nd and 11, on Harrison Smith — 22.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:09 · 2nd and 11
Harrison Smith
Vikings
(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
Vikings closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Minnesota Vikings 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:09, Vikings +22.4% win probability on one snap.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Curtis SamuelCommandersQ3 14:10(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
18.8pts
Taylor HeinickeVikingsQ3 5:40(5:40) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-A.Evans).
15.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 38% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Vikings161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
Swing −22.4 for CommandersExpected points −5.51 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:09MIN +22% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at WAS 47. 22-H.Smith to WAS 12 for 35 yards (89-C.Sims).
3rd · 14:10WAS +19% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 5:40MIN +15% win prob(5:40) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-A.Evans).
4th · 1:55WAS +15% win prob(1:55) 1-G.Joseph 22 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-91-J.Ridgeway, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 4 - No Play.
4th · 12:28WAS +13% win prob(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to WAS 12 for 47 yards (25-B.St-Juste) [94-D.Payne]. MIN-8-K.Cousins was injured during the play.
4th · 7:52WAS +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 28-yard field goal with 0:16 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:16Greg Joseph·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryCommanders
Vikings6–1Commanders
301Total yards264
4.6Yards per play4.4
34%Success rate38%
44%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
15First downs15
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.16Commanders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Vikings: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.35Commanders: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Vikings: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.08Commanders: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Commanders’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Commanders 2.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Commanders25.6%
inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.6%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 11.8% and 1.6 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Heinicke pass+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:10) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 10-C.Samuel for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 14:10 · Commanders · 2nd & 7 at MIN 49 · gained 49 · +4.37 EP · +20.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 78 yards from the MIN 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
564
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0073%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1351%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1857%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.6829%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Vikings6Commanders0
Vikings7Commanders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Commanders 9
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 44
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 19
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Vikings 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 29
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 34
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 41
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 47
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Vikings 14
Vikings7Commanders3
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Vikings 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Commanders 21
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Vikings7Commanders9
Vikings7Commanders10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Vikings 49
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Vikings 38
Punt4 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Vikings 23
4th quarter51 plays
Vikings7Commanders16
Vikings7Commanders17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Vikings10Commanders17
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Commanders 7
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Vikings16Commanders17
Vikings17Commanders17
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Vikings20Commanders17
Field goal20 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Commanders 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
