2022 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 3, 2022 · NRG Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Houston Texans

PHI -14 no coverO 45.5 ✓DomeEagles closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 29–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, PHI +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:16PHI 7 — HOU 7PHI ball · 1st & 10PHI 92%

(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at HOU 35 for -8 yards (21-S.Nelson). FUMBLES (21-S.Nelson) [21-S.Nelson], touched at HOU 34, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Johnson at HOU 35.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:16PHI +13% win prob(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at HOU 35 for -8 yards (21-S.Nelson). FUMBLES (21-S.Nelson) [21-S.Nelson], touched at HOU 34, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Johnson at HOU 35.
Q3 · 8:23PHI +9% win prob(8:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle intended for 15-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 23-C.Gardner-Johnson at HOU 42. 23-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at HOU 17 for 25 yards (84-T.Quitoriano).
Q1 · 1:36HOU +8% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:10HOU +8% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:42HOU Touchdown
(9:42) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 10-D.Mills pass short left to 84-T.Quitoriano for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — HOU 7
Q1 · 1:36PHI Touchdown
(1:36) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — HOU 7
Q2 · 4:37PHI Touchdown
(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — HOU 7
Q2 · 0:43HOU Touchdown
(:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Moore. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 15-C.Moore for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — HOU 14
Q3 · 8:10PHI Touchdown
(8:10) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — HOU 14
Q3 · 1:18HOU Field goal
(1:18) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: PHI 21 — HOU 17
Q4 · 11:26PHI Touchdown
(11:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 29 — HOU 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Texans
Offensive plays	61	57
Total yards	364 (edge)	303
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	59% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	54%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

21/27, 243 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

13/22, 154 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

27 att, 139 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

17 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

8/9 for 100 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Phillip DorsettWR

3/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	11	75	5:23	Touchdown +7
2	PHI	PHI 9	20	83	8:04	Touchdown +7
3	HOU	HOU 25	7	23	3:34	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 20	3	46	0:50	Fumble
5	HOU	HOU 35	5	9	2:05	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 21	11	79	5:32	Touchdown +7
7	HOU	HOU 25	9	75	3:55	Touchdown +7
8	PHI	PHI 25	6	39	0:37	Missed field goal
9	PHI	PHI 17	5	-2	2:11	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 36	4	7	1:28	Punt
11	PHI	PHI 20	4	8	1:32	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 20	3	4	1:36	Interception
13	PHI	HOU 17	3	17	0:09	Touchdown +7
14	HOU	HOU 25	13	63	6:49	Field goal +3
15	PHI	PHI 25	12	77	4:53	Touchdown +8
16	HOU	HOU 25	8	9	3:07	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 10	4	2	2:17	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 38	9	38	3:50	Interception
19	PHI	PHI 25	6	15	2:08	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 83 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	21/27	243	2	0	4	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	17	93	5.5	1	1.9
Jalen Hurts	9	23	2.6	0	0.2
Kenneth Gainwell	4	22	5.5	1	2.7
Boston Scott	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	8	9	100	1	36%	8.9
A.J. Brown	4	6	59	1	24%	5.2
Quez Watkins	2	2	25	0	8%	2.4
DeVonta Smith	2	2	22	0	8%	0.7
Kenneth Gainwell	3	3	16	0	12%	0.4
Jack Stoll	1	2	13	0	8%	1.0
Zach Pascal	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyzir White	4	3	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	5	1	3.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	2	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	1	3	0.0	0	0
Marvin Wilson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	2	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	4	0	0.0	1	1
T.J. Edwards	1	2	0.0	0	0
K'Von Wallace	2	1	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	1	2	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	13/22	154	2	2	3	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dameon Pierce	27	139	5.1	0.9
Davis Mills	3	18	6.0	-0.1
Rex Burkhead	1	9	9.0	0.3
Chris Moore	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Phillip Dorsett	3	5	69	0	24%	0.7
Chris Moore	4	5	43	1	24%	-1.9
O.J. Howard	1	2	14	0	10%	0.4
Tyron Johnson	1	1	8	0	5%	0.6
Jalen Camp	1	1	7	0	5%	0.5
Rex Burkhead	1	2	6	0	10%	0.3
Brevin Jordan	1	2	5	0	10%	-1.1
Teagan Quitoriano	1	1	2	1	5%	0.9
Jordan Akins	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Troy Hairston	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jonathan Owens	7	3	0.0
Jalen Pitre	7	2	0.0
Christian Kirksey	5	2	0.0
Jerry Hughes	4	1	2.0
Steven Nelson	4	0	1.0
Kurt Hinish	2	1	1.0
Christian Harris	3	0	0.0
Desmond King	3	0	0.0
Tavierre Thomas	1	1	0.0
Davis Mills	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -14
Closing total: 45.5
PHI moneyline: -702
HOU moneyline: +539

Eagles closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PHI 4 days · HOU 4 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Lovie Smith