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Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 3, 2022 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 9
It turned at Q2 12:16, 1st and 10, on Jalen Hurts — 12.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:16 · 1st and 10
Jalen Hurts
Texans
(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at HOU 35 for -8 yards (21-S.Nelson). FUMBLES (21-S.Nelson) [21-S.Nelson], touched at HOU 34, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Johnson at HOU 35.
Philadelphia Eagles 29–17. Biggest swing: Q2 12:16, Texans +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 5 of 10 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 25.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 49 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at HOU 35 for -8 yards (21-S.Nelson). FUMBLES (21-S.Nelson) [21-S.Nelson], touched at HOU 34, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Johnson at HOU 35.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
A.J. Brown's 17-yard touchdown catch with 8:10 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
A.J. Brown17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+721–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryTexans
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Texans’s 57 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Texans 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −16.9 pts, is past their previous low of −10.7 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 64.7% in week 8 against 41.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles0.9 ptsright on their number · +1.6 vs their -0.7 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 60 snaps
Texans-16.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.5 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 86%
Tendencies room →Eagles60.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 48 early downs
Texans41.7%leaned — ran early · −16.6 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19% to 54%
Tendencies room →Eagles24.2%right on their number · +6.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Texans32.1%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Eagles66.7%inside their normal wobble · +15.5 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±26.9 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 46%
Tendencies room →Eagles10.7%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Texans24.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Eagles14.3%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 17.7%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Texans15.2%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
HOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.9 pts, 14.5 points below their season mean of -2.4 pts and 2.0 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
21/27, 243 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.1 expected points added · +15.4% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
13/22, 154 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-7.1 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.0 | +5.4 | 91% | 76% | 36% | 41% | 8/9, 100 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 20.0 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 243 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 23 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 15.9 | +3.4 | 86% | 94% | 24% | 29% | 4/6, 59 yd, 1 TD |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 15.3 | +0.6 | 65% | 64% | 0% | — | 17 car, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 14.5 | +4.9 | 73% | 68% | 24% | 12% | 1 car, 2 yd · 4/5, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | −1.0 | 78% | 57% | 0% | — | 27 car, 139 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 12.8 | +3.2 | 28% | 24% | 12% | 1% | 4 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 16 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/22, 154 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 18 yd |
| Phillip DorsettWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | +1.0 | 77% | 71% | 24% | 48% | 3/5, 69 yd |
| Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.2 | 30% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.5 | 54% | 58% | 8% | 5% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.2 | 89% | 94% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB | 2.5 | −1.4 | 22% | 32% | 10% | 8% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.9 | 43% | 36% | 10% | 10% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.9 | 35% | 36% | 8% | 6% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Tyron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 42% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 31% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jalen CampWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.9 | 63% | 57% | 10% | 9% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Troy HairstonRB | 0.0 | −1.4 | 17% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 27% | 29% | 5% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at HOU 35 for -8 yards (21-S.Nelson). FUMBLES (21-S.Nelson) [21-S.Nelson], touched at HOU 34, RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Johnson at HOU 35.
Q2 12:16 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at HOU 27 · lost 7 · -6.18 EP · −17.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, manual charting on 135. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Texans6Eagles0Texans7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Eagles6Texans7Eagles7Texans7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Eagles13Texans7Eagles14Texans7Eagles14Texans13Eagles14Texans14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles20Texans14Eagles21Texans14Eagles21Texans17Eagles27Texans17Eagles29Texans17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/27 | 243 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 9 | 100 | 1 | 36% | +8.9 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 24% | +5.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 5 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 13/22 | 154 | 2 | 2 | 3 | −7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_09_PHI_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -14, won by 12 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 46 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| Boston Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +2.4 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +1.0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marvin Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| T.J. Edwards | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 |
| 139 |
| 5.1 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 24% | +0.7 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 24% | −1.9 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Jalen Camp | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.1 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Troy Hairston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Owens | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kurt Hinish | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Harris | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
