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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle31
BY 10final margin
CardinalsArizona21
Seattle Seahawks 31 at Arizona Cardinals 21. Final.
Cardinals -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
Seattle Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 9:26, 1st and 10, on Zaven Collins — 29.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:26 · 1st and 10
Zaven Collins
Cardinals
(9:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 9-K.Walker INTERCEPTED by 25-Z.Collins at SEA 30. 25-Z.Collins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 49.5 ✓
Cardinals closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 31–21. Biggest swing: Q3 9:26, Cardinals +29.2% win probability on one snap.
29.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ3 5:38(5:38) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 12 yards (25-Z.Collins). PENALTY on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 47.
12.0pts
Noah FantSeahawksQ4 3:30(3:30) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to ARI 34 for 51 yards (3-B.Baker).
12.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 6 of 14 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(9:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 9-K.Walker INTERCEPTED by 25-Z.Collins at SEA 30. 25-Z.Collins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +29.2 for CardinalsExpected points +8.88 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 103
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:26SEA +29% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 9-K.Walker INTERCEPTED by 25-Z.Collins at SEA 30. 25-Z.Collins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:30ARI +12% win prob(3:30) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to ARI 34 for 51 yards (3-B.Baker).
3rd · 5:38ARI +12% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 12 yards (25-Z.Collins). PENALTY on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 47.
2nd · 12:04ARI +11% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:48ARI +10% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:47SEA +9% win prob(6:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 40 for -4 yards (94-Z.Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 9-yard touchdown catch with 2:48 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:55Jason Myers·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Tinker+33–0
Seahawks ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.15Cardinals: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Seahawks: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Seahawks: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.27Cardinals: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Cardinals 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.1 pts in week 8 against −1.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Cardinals18.4%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.8%, 17.8 points below their season mean of 33.5% and 1.6 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 9-K.Walker INTERCEPTED by 25-Z.Collins at SEA 30. 25-Z.Collins for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:26 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 40 · gained nothing · -8.88 EP · −31.0% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 85 yards from the SEA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
683
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0969%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0966%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0447%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.6527%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4256%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks3Cardinals0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Cardinals 31
Seahawks3Cardinals6
Seahawks3Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Seahawks 22
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 47
2nd quarter51 plays
Seahawks9Cardinals7
Seahawks10Cardinals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 2
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, no huddle, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 36
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Cardinals 46
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 42
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Seahawks 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 45
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 32
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 35
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks10Cardinals13
Touchdown1 play
Seahawks10Cardinals14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Seahawks16Cardinals14
Seahawks17Cardinals14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 43
4th quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Seahawks23Cardinals14
Seahawks24Cardinals14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Cardinals 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks24Cardinals20
Seahawks24Cardinals21
Touchdown19 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 1
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Seahawks30Cardinals21
Seahawks31Cardinals21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Cardinals 5
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
