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2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee17
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City20
Tennessee Titans 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 20. Final.
Chiefs -14 no coverU 45 ✓
The verdict · 2022 Week 9
Kansas City Chiefs 20, Titans 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:07, 4th and 10, on Harrison Butker — 29.2 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:07 · 4th and 10
Harrison Butker
Titans
(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Chiefs closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:07, Titans +29.2% win probability on one snap.
29.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Patrick MahomesChiefsQ4 3:05(3:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.8pts
Noah GrayChiefsOT 7:04(7:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 83-N.Gray to TEN 22 for 27 yards (21-R.McCreary).
27.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 8 of 19 on third down, against Titans at 1 of 11 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Titans186 of 198 plays carry both curves
(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Swing −29.2 for ChiefsExpected points +0.14 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 191
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:07TEN +29% win prob(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Overtime · 7:04KC +28% win prob(7:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 83-N.Gray to TEN 22 for 27 yards (21-R.McCreary).
4th · 3:05KC +26% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:03TEN +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman to TEN 27 for 33 yards (39-T.Mitchell; 31-K.Byard).
3rd · 11:35TEN +23% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 21-R.McCreary at KC 38. 21-R.McCreary to KC 34 for 4 yards (87-T.Kelce).
Overtime · 9:08KC +18% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 18 yards (51-D.Long) [99-R.Weaver].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 28-yard field goal with 4:07 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:50Harrison Butker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–3
2nd15:00Mecole Hardman·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+60–9
Overtime4:07Harrison Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryChiefs
Titans2–6Chiefs
230Total yards501
4.9Yards per play5.4
28%Success rate42%
9%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays7
9First downs29
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Titans: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Titans: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.22Chiefs: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 47 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 92 at 85%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Chiefs 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's early-down pass rate, 84.3%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 14.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.5% in week 6.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
70 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +20.1 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 14.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +15.2 pts in week 2.
91 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, −21.0 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 9 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
TEN's play-action rate turned over: 46.7% in week 8 against 19.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 30 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 78 dropbacks
Chiefs14.3%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 84.3%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 62.2% and 2.4 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%51 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Every snap100%51 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%51 snaps
71Dennis DaleyT · Every snap100%51 snaps
7Malik WillisQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%51 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation78%40 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation65%33 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation61%31 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation59%30 snaps
8Cody HollisterWR · Rotational49%25 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Rotational35%18 snaps
40Dontrell HilliardRB · Rotational31%16 snaps
86Kevin RaderTE · Situational24%12 snaps
19Chris ConleyWR · Situational18%9 snaps
25Hassan HaskinsRB · Situational12%6 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin StrongDESam OkuayinonuDETory CarterFBAmani HookerFSJordan RoosGRyan TannehillQB
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Logan WoodsideQB
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%100 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%100 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Every snap100%100 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%100 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%100 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%100 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time83%83 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time83%83 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation71%71 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Harrison Butker−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
OT 4:07 · Chiefs · 4th & 10 at TEN 11 · gained nothing · +0.14 EP · −29.2% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 93 yards from the KC 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
35%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67+0.0981%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.5452%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0180%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.5529%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2033%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Titans0Chiefs3
Field goal19 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Titans 5
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Titans 3
2nd quarter49 plays
Titans0Chiefs9
Touchdown3 plays
Titans6Chiefs9
Titans7Chiefs9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Chiefs 4
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans13Chiefs9
Titans14Chiefs9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 26
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Titans 43
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 23
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 37
Titans17Chiefs9
Field goal4 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 26
No good12 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Titans 29
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Titans 46
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 16
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 12
Punt6 plays, from midfield to the Chiefs 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Titans17Chiefs15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans17Chiefs17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Titans 14
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 19
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 47
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Overtime23 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.9 seconds
Titans17Chiefs20
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Titans 11
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
