2022 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 6, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -14 no coverU 45 ✓Chiefs closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:07, TEN +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:07TEN 17 — KC 20KC ball · 4th & 10KC 97%

(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:07TEN +29% win prob(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
OT · 7:04KC +28% win prob(7:04) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 83-N.Gray to TEN 22 for 27 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Q4 · 3:05KC +26% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:03TEN +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman to TEN 27 for 33 yards (39-T.Mitchell; 31-K.Byard).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:50KC Field goal
(6:50) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — KC 3
Q2 · 15:00KC Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 17-M.Hardman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TEN 0 — KC 9
Q2 · 10:51TEN Touchdown
(10:51) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 7 — KC 9
Q2 · 5:28TEN Touchdown
(5:28) 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 14 — KC 9
Q3 · 10:03TEN Field goal
(10:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 17 — KC 9
Q4 · 3:05KC Touchdown
(3:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: TEN 17 — KC 17
OT · 4:07KC Field goal
(4:07) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: TEN 17 — KC 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Chiefs
Offensive plays	47	92
Total yards	230	501 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	28%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	45%	85%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	1/11	8/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

43/68, 446 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Malik WillisQB

5/16, 80 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.6 expected points added · -21.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

17 att, 115 yds, 2 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/17 for 106 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

10/12 for 88 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 26	16	84	8:13	Field goal +3
2	TEN	TEN 18	6	48	2:22	Punt
3	KC	KC 21	10	83	4:30	Touchdown +6
4	TEN	TEN 26	9	70	4:07	Touchdown +7
5	KC	KC 25	7	17	2:34	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 21	6	79	2:50	Touchdown +7
7	KC	KC 25	5	-4	1:29	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 39	5	11	2:03	Punt
9	KC	KC 2	8	42	1:33	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 9	1	0	0:19	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 16	5	12	2:27	Punt
12	KC	KC 25	3	12	1:06	Interception
13	TEN	KC 34	4	8	1:29	Field goal +3
14	KC	KC 16	11	50	4:41	Missed field goal
15	TEN	TEN 37	4	8	2:24	Punt
16	KC	KC 40	5	8	2:10	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 10	4	6	1:47	Punt
18	KC	KC 11	4	1	1:01	Punt
19	TEN	50	6	8	3:01	Punt
20	KC	KC 7	14	95	6:58	Touchdown +8
21	TEN	TEN 17	5	-4	1:09	Punt
22	KC	KC 36	8	11	1:12	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 30	4	0	0:30	Punt
24	KC	KC 40	2	33	0:05	Turnover on downs
25	KC	KC 25	14	69	5:56	Field goal +3
26	TEN	TEN 25	5	-16	1:55	Turnover on downs

7 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Malik Willis	5/16	80	0	0	3	-5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	17	115	6.8	2	4.5
Malik Willis	8	40	5.0	0	-1.0
Dontrell Hilliard	3	12	4.0	0	-0.8
Hassan Haskins	1	5	5.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chigoziem Okonkwo	1	3	48	23%	2.5
Austin Hooper	2	3	34	23%	1.8
Hassan Haskins	1	1	2	8%	-0.9
Cody Hollister	0	1	0	8%	-0.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	8%	-0.9
Robert Woods	0	2	0	15%	0.3
Chris Conley	0	1	0	8%	-1.1
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	-4	8%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kevin Byard	6	6	0	0
Joshua Kalu	2	6	0	0
David Long Jr.	4	4	0	0
Andrew Adams	6	1	0	0
Roger McCreary	5	2	1	1
Dylan Cole	2	4	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	4	2	0	0
Hassan Haskins	3	1	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	3	1	0	1
Kristian Fulton	4	0	0	2

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	43/68	446	1	1	4	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	6	63	10.5	1	8.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4	5	1.3	0	0.2
Isiah Pacheco	5	5	1.0	0	-2.1
Jerick McKinnon	3	4	1.3	0	-0.9
Michael Burton	1	0	0.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	17	106	0	27%	-0.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	10	12	88	0	19%	6.6
Mecole Hardman	6	9	79	1	15%	1.3
Noah Gray	3	3	45	0	5%	2.8
Jerick McKinnon	6	8	40	0	13%	-1.7
Justin Watson	2	5	37	0	8%	1.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	14	0	3%	0.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	1	12	0	2%	1.2
Kadarius Toney	2	2	12	0	3%	0.4
Michael Burton	1	1	9	0	2%	0.7
Isiah Pacheco	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.5
Skyy Moore	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Khalen Saunders	3	3	1.0	0
Willie Gay	3	2	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	2	0.0	2
Carlos Dunlap	2	2	1.5	0
Nick Bolton	1	2	0.0	0
Bryan Cook	2	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	3	0	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	1	1	0.0	1
George Karlaftis	1	1	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -14
Closing total: 45
TEN moneyline: +530
KC moneyline: -689

Chiefs closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: TEN 7 days · KC 14 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Andy Reid