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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2022 Week 10
It turned at Q2 1:39, 2nd and 10, on John Wolford — 13.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:39 · 2nd and 10
John Wolford
Cardinals
(1:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass incomplete short middle [41-M.Sanders]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford sacked at LA 35 for -9 yards (41-M.Sanders). FUMBLES (41-M.Sanders) [41-M.Sanders], touched at LA 35, RECOVERED by ARI-99-J.Watt at LA 30.
Arizona Cardinals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:39, Cardinals +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(1:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass incomplete short middle [41-M.Sanders]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford sacked at LA 35 for -9 yards (41-M.San
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Conner's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Rams’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Rams 3.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 23.8% in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.4 pts in week 9 against +4.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals4.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.0 vs their -1.7 pts, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 64 snaps
Rams-7.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 84%
Tendencies room →Cardinals60.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 46 early downs
Rams73.9%leaned — passed early · +16.9 vs their 57.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.68× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 60%
Tendencies room →Cardinals12.5%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 14.8%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams22.5%right on their number · −6.0 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals50.0%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 51.6%, and they swing ±19.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Rams66.7%inside their normal wobble · +28.8 vs their 37.8%, and they swing ±35.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Cardinals32.5%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 33.5%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams35.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 37%
Tendencies room →Cardinals30.0%leaned — got home · +13.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Rams17.5%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
LA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.9%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 57.0% and 1.7 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
26/37, 238 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.8 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected
Passing · LA
24/36, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-11.8 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Receiving · ARI
10/14 for 98 yds, 0 TD
40% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
James Conner banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James ConnerRB · Bell Cow Back | 23.6 | +6.3 | 96% | 95% | 9% | 0% | 21 car, 69 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | −1.8 | 94% | 98% | 40% | 46% | 10/14, 98 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.4 | −0.9 | 97% | 95% | 37% | 53% | 9/13, 94 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | −1.0 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 26/37, 238 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 4 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +4.6 | 44% | 43% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.7 | 13% | 23% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 91% | 83% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 37% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass incomplete short middle [41-M.Sanders]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford sacked at LA 35 for -9 yards (41-M.Sanders). FUMBLES (41-M.Sanders) [41-M.Sanders], touched at LA 35, RECOVERED by ARI-99-J.Watt at LA 30.
Q2 1:39 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at LA 44 · lost 9 · -5.50 EP · −13.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
Rams3Cardinals3Rams3Cardinals9Rams3Cardinals10Rams3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Cardinals16Rams3Cardinals17Rams3Cardinals17Rams9Cardinals17Rams10Cardinals23Rams10Cardinals24Rams10Cardinals27Rams10Cardinals27Rams16Cardinals27Rams17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 26/37 | 238 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 2 | −2.1 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 14 | 98 | 0 | 40% | +0.2 |
| Rondale Moore | 9 | 13 | 94 | 0 | 37% | +3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Hamilton | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Niemann | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wolford | 24/36 | 212 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −11.8 |
| Bryce Perkins | 1/1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2022_10_ARI_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 44 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | −0.0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 6% | +4.9 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myjai Sanders | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marco Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| J.J. Watt | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Darrell Henderson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Bryce Perkins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −2.2 |
| John Wolford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 8 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 22% | +2.5 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 16% | +1.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 8% | +4.6 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −8.5 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Brandon Powell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hollins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
