2022 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 13, 2022 · SoFi Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -3.5 upsetO 38 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 1:39, ARI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:39ARI 10 — LA 3LA ball · 2nd & 10ARI 66%

(1:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass incomplete short middle [41-M.Sanders]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford sacked at LA 35 for -9 yards (41-M.San

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:39ARI +14% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass incomplete short middle [41-M.Sanders]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford sacked at LA 35 for -9 yards (41-M.Sanders). FUMBLES (41-M.Sanders) [41-M.Sanders], touched at LA 35, RECOVERED by ARI-99-J.Watt at LA 30.
Q1 · 2:58LA +9% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to LA 25 for 12 yards (2-T.Hill, 45-B.Wagner). ARI-86-Z.Ertz was injured during the play.
Q2 · 2:00LA +7% win prob(2:00) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:29LA +7% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:20LA Field goal
(6:20) 8-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: ARI 0 — LA 3
Q1 · 0:18ARI Field goal
(:18) 15-T.Vizcaino 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — LA 3
Q2 · 2:00ARI Touchdown
(2:00) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — LA 3
Q2 · 0:29ARI Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left to 18-A.Green for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — LA 3
Q3 · 4:29LA Touchdown
(4:29) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — LA 10
Q4 · 7:48ARI Touchdown
(7:48) 6-J.Conner left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 24 — LA 10
Q4 · 3:49ARI Field goal
(3:49) 15-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Score after this play: ARI 27 — LA 10
Q4 · 0:14LA Touchdown
(:14) (Shotgun) 13-J.Wolford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 27 — LA 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Rams
Offensive plays	64	59
Total yards	299 (edge)	257
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	42%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	2
First downs gained on snaps	17	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

26/37, 238 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · LA

John WolfordQB

24/36, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.8 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

21 att, 69 yds, 2 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

6 att, 22 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/14 for 98 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Rondale MooreWR

9/13 for 94 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	15	61	8:44	Field goal +3
2	ARI	ARI 25	15	62	6:03	Field goal +3
3	LA	LA 24	5	4	0:38	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 28	4	7	1:39	Punt
5	LA	LA 33	4	-1	1:23	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 33	4	9	0:54	Punt
7	LA	LA 20	4	4	2:12	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 34	14	66	6:31	Touchdown +7
9	LA	LA 25	5	10	0:22	Fumble
10	ARI	LA 30	6	30	1:10	Touchdown +7
11	LA	LA 6	2	0	0:24	End of half
12	ARI	ARI 25	7	21	2:49	Punt
13	LA	LA 26	5	9	3:14	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 20	4	7	1:26	Punt
15	LA	LA 41	8	49	3:07	Touchdown +7
16	ARI	ARI 15	9	35	4:30	Punt
17	LA	LA 12	6	22	2:10	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 40	10	60	5:03	Touchdown +7
19	LA	LA 25	7	29	2:08	Interception
20	ARI	LA 25	4	2	1:49	Field goal +3
21	LA	LA 25	13	70	3:37	Touchdown +7
22	ARI	ARI 24	2	0	0:07	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 70 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	26/37	238	1	0	2	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	21	69	3.3	2	-2.1
Keaontay Ingram	1	5	5.0	0	-0.5
Colt McCoy	4	4	1.0	0	2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	14	98	0	40%	0.2
Rondale Moore	9	13	94	0	37%	3.3
James Conner	3	3	17	0	9%	-0.0
Zach Ertz	1	1	12	0	3%	1.8
A.J. Green	2	2	10	1	6%	4.9
Trey McBride	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Stephen Anderson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antonio Hamilton	9	2	0.0	0	2
Isaiah Simmons	6	1	0.0	0	1
Ben Niemann	3	3	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	3	1	0.0	1	1
Zach Allen	2	2	1.0	0	0
Myjai Sanders	4	0	1.0	0	1
Marco Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	2	0	0.0	0	1
J.J. Watt	2	0	1.0	0	0
Stephen Anderson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
John Wolford	24/36	212	1	1	3	-11.8
Bryce Perkins	1/1	-3	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	6	22	3.7	0	0.9
Darrell Henderson	6	21	3.5	1	1.3
Kyren Williams	1	9	9.0	0	0.5
Brandon Powell	1	7	7.0	0	-0.1
Bryce Perkins	3	4	1.3	0	-2.2
John Wolford	3	3	1.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Higbee	8	8	73	0	22%	2.5
Allen Robinson	4	6	44	0	16%	1.2
Kyren Williams	3	3	30	0	8%	1.6
Van Jefferson	3	3	27	1	8%	4.6
Ben Skowronek	2	7	14	0	19%	-8.5
Darrell Henderson	1	1	11	0	3%	0.6
Brycen Hopkins	1	2	11	0	5%	-0.9
Cam Akers	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Brandon Powell	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Cooper Kupp	3	5	-1	0	14%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ernest Jones	5	4	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	2	6	1.0	0
Nick Scott	6	1	0.0	0
Jalen Ramsey	5	1	0.0	0
Taylor Rapp	2	3	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	1	4	0.0	0
Troy Hill	4	0	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	3	0	1.0	0
Justin Hollins	1	2	0.0	0
David Long	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 38
ARI moneyline: +160
LA moneyline: -183

Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 44 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: ARI 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.